฿ Bitcoin BTC/USD Weekly, October 01 - 05, 2018

[Sive Morten]

Morning guys,

let's update our short-term BTC view again. On daily chart picture still looks bearish, because upside action doesn't have any signs of thrusting action, which is neccesary to classify it as bullish reversal. Mostly, it has a features of retracement after solid drop.

It makes us keep our 5900$ valid and look at scenarios how market could reach it. If fact, existence of untouched major daily target makes pressure on BTC, and doesn't let it to turn up by technical meaning.

Also here we see some signs of bearish dynamic pressure. All this stuff tells that one pattern that we could get here is 1.27 butterfly "Buy", that could complete daily AB-CD target as well. Bearish context will be destroyed if market will show signs of upside thrust and break at least above $7000.

On 4H chart price action also suggests some bearish continuation. According to our previous analysis, once 1.618 uspide AB-CD has been completed (inside the channel), market has dropped. Current price action looks weak and heavy, which means that this is just a pause before next leg down. The only concern that we have is around "C" point. It will not affect final target, but it could adjust starting point of downside action. It could happen right from here:

Or, market could climb slightly higher and form "222" Sell on hourly chart. This is the only uncertrainty that we have here:

That's being said, for short trade we could use setups that we've mentioned here. For long trades it is better to wait for some bullish signs - upside channel breakout on 4H chart and signs of thrust. Without it we think that bullish context is insufficient.

 

[Sive Morten]

Morning guys,

Today is just minor update needed. Daily - stands the same. On 4H chart, in addition to previous bearish signs, we've got minor bearish grabber today, which adds points to bears:

On 1H chart market was not able even to form minor "222" Sell yesterday but dropped. Now price just hangs on trendline, which hardly could be treated as bullish sign.

Thus, we keep our short-term bearish scenario valid and still watch for 5900$ daily target within 1-2 weeks.

 

[chalo]

Morning guys,


Thus, we keep our short-term bearish scenario valid and still watch for 5900$ daily target within 1-2 weeks.

Dear Sive,

Thank so much for your consistent guidance and sharing your knowledge. It is much appreciated.

Chalo

 

[Sive Morten]

Morning everybody,

It seems that market confirms our bearish expectations and stands on the road to $5900 daily target. On 4H chart price again stands at trendline support. It's breakout will lead to downside acceleration. Nearest target here is 6200$ butterfly 1.27 extension:

On 1H chart shorter term trendline already has been broken. Here we have AB=CD pattern in progress with 6300$ destination point.

So, these are two levels that we will watch today.

 

[Sive Morten]

Morning guys,

Today we do not have something really new, as price stands in very tight range and barely generates new trading setups within recent few weeks.
That's why it makes sense to take a look at wider picture. In fact, BTC stands now at resistance of long-term trend line and big triangle. Here you can see our day by day 4H setup and where it stands in relation to big triangle pattern:

Trading range narrows significantly in recent 1-2 months. To estimate direction market has to break one of the borders or to show fake breakout. As market stuck in final 4th part of triangle, the exit will be flat probably. Right now we have positive USD fundamental background and stronger trendline resistance (red) rather support (black). NFP also is promised to be good, so there are some chances that BTC still will hit our downside target.

For better trading opportunities we need to get activity from the market. When range is narrowing more and more, there is small room to trade something here.

 

[Sive Morten]

Morning guys,

Today BTC stands even in tighter range than yesterday, and we do not need even 4H chart for update. In fact, price is coiling near major resistance trendline. To say something new BTC has to break it up. Only in this case we could start talking about bullish sentiment and upside targets. Failure to do this will keep BTC inside the triangle and most probable will trigger action back to the bottom of the pattern.

NFP release should become a trigger for any action. On 1H chart we could better specify the crucial area. In fact, this is 6500$ range. Here market stands in smaller triangle consolidation and is forming something that looks like reverse H&S pattern. 6500 has been tested multiple times and for today session this will be critical moment. Breaking of 6500 level could lead to chain reaction of following breakouts of other levels.
Market waits for good NFP numbers, thus forecast not in favor of BTC, but who knows...