฿ Bitcoin BTC/USD Weekly, September 10-14, 2018

[Sive Morten]

Greetings everybody,

BTC tries now to сome out of last week's double stress - collapse in the middle of the weak and NFP data.
Last week we've said that BTC stands at daily oversold. Although we do not have valid Fib supports below market right now, oversold could support BTC a bit more. Besides, response on NFP data is good.

It means that despite our expectation of 5900$ target, price could show meaningful upside bounce to ~ 3/8 Fib resistance on 4H chart:

To control this process, we could watch for patterns on 1H chart. First is downside action was finalized by Butterfly "Sell". Now market is forming either triangle consolidation or skewed reverse H&S pattern. Anyway this leads us to upside AB=CD pattern. Its target almost agrees with 3/8 Fib resistance area. Currently I wouldn't hope on something greater.

Hence, to complete this BTC has to keep valid lows of "C" point and even more "A" point. If market will drop below "C" it will mean that we could get downside butterfly (try to identify it by yourself) and BTC is going to our 5900$ target.

 

[Sive Morten]

Morning guys,

please combine this update with yesterday's picture. On daily chart we have the same story, so I do not place it here. What's really interesting - intraday picture.

BTC shows very weak post NFP action, compares to FX and gold market. It makes me think that chances on upside retracement, even to 3/8 have diminished. In fact, on 4H chart we have signs of bearish dynamic pressure. Bearish pennant and lower highs inside it, while MACD stands up:

If you will take a look together at yesterday's hourly chart and today one, you'll see that market right now shows "222" Sell pattern and it is vital for yesterday's upside scenario, whether price will stop either at 5/8 Fib support, or at least above 6225 lows. If none of these levels will hold, then, we will go directly to 5900 daily target.

If BTC somehow will hold above recent lows, it will keep chances to reach daily 3/8 Fib resistance level and complete patterns that we've mentioned yesterday:

 

[Sive Morten]

Morning guys,

So our "222' Sell pattern has worked and market dropped to 6175 area. Althouth we see bullish price action on other markets, such as FX and Gold, BTC looks a bit heavy. Recent upside recovery was weaker compares to others.
Still, bullish context on gold and EUR gives some chances to BTC that it will not break lows today.
Since market stands in tight triangle consolidation, we do not have bright setups for trading, only some scalp scenarios. For example - this minor "222" Buy on 1H chart:

We should not forget that we have bearish dynamic pressure on 4H chart, and market action has bearish sentiment with 5900 target on daily chart. It means that whatever long position you will take on intraday setups - do not marry it, take profit fast. Because if downside breakout will follow - it will be very quick.

 

[Sive Morten]

Morning guys,

although we've correctly suggested uspide action, we haven't counted on such a strong action. So, both '222" patterns on 1H chart has worked very nice, breaking 4H bearish dynamic pressure setup and trend line resistance:

Since other dollar related assets, as EUR, Gold keep bullish context still, we could turn to 4H time frame and point another upside target. This will be "222" Sell with ~ 6512$ destination. At the same time, chances on strong upside performance are minimal, at least now. CD leg is flatter than AB and in most cases this mean reversal in "D" point, as soon as AB=CD upside action will be completed.

 

[Sive Morten]

Good morning,

BTC has reached our 6590+ target, but moved slightly higher and erease potential "222" Sell pattern on 4H chart. Taking in consideration recent USD weakness and positive view on EUR and Gold, BTC could follow the same tendency and try to reach next XOP target around 6718 and major 50% resistance.

Current upside action stands gradual but invalidation points are too far as we have AB=CD pattern in place.
Right now we do not have clear patterns to enter either long or short, market is testing major 3/8 resistance.

Any trades here should be backed by clear patterns and support levels. Thus, appearing of "222" Buy, for example, could be used for long entry. For short entry it would be better to wait clear bearish reversal patterns, mostly around valuable Fib levels and prefferably after completion of major XOP target.

In fact, we have a bit skewed reverse H&S pattern here. Once OP target has been passed, BTC could try to continue tendency to XOP.

At the same time, daily plunge was very fast and strong last week and current action is still treated as retracement. If XOP will be completed, this could give another 4H "222" Sell...