฿ Bitcoin BTC/USD Weekly, September 17-21, 2018

[Sive Morten]

Morning guys,

withing few sessions BTC stands stubbornly right under major daily 3/8 resistance, which keep chances on another upside leg. It a bit contradicts with our view on Gold and EUR, but, on Friday, BTC has not shown solid drop while other markets collapsed. Thus, crypto is a new stuff and it is unknown correpation, if any, between them.

On daily chart we do not see yet any reasons to change our view. 5900 still stands as our major target. Current upside action we treat as retracement, and additional 500$ will not change daily picture.

On 4H chart know we could look at the market by changing the shape of reverse H&S pattern a bit. Here is how it looks now:

From this point of view, our task is relatively simple. While price keeps right arm lows - pattern stands intact and context is bullish. Once lows will be broken - downside action could be re-established and BTC could drop below the head. So, theoretically it seems possible taking long positions against right arm lows.

Right arm takes the shape of triangle on hourly chart. If upside breakout indeed will happen, nearest target will be 1.27 butterfly extension around 6650-6660. If we will be right on H&S, its classic target stands around 6840 - AB=CD of the head and right shoulder.

 

[Sive Morten]

Morning everybody,

Yesterday market has failed to proceed with our 4H H&S pattern and it has failed. Failure of H&S as a rule leads to drop below the head of the pattern, and it means that market stands on a road to our daily 5900 target.
As we've said yesterday, we've treated H&S just as possible deeper upside retracement within daily bearish context, but not as bullish reversal. This deeper upside action has not happened. Here we put possible AB=CD pattern, that theoretically could happen, but we treat its chance as very low, taking in consideration that BTC has dropped on a background of upward action of other markets, FX and Gold. Recent drop was rather strong:

Most probable scenario to see is this one on daily chart, which completes our daily target:

 

[Sive Morten]

Morning guys,

BTC market shows very slow and lazy action this hours, so we do not need any adjustment of daily and 4H charts. We treat current upside action just as retracement before downside continuation to our major daily target of 5900$.
This retracement could take different shape, for example on new hourly chart it could become "222" Sell pattern:

But we do not exclude situation of immediate downside action. The point is BTC stands at strong resistance of K-area and natural acc/distr. border. If it will fail to break through it and drop below "C" point, erasing previous strong upside candle, it will mean that BTC is forming hourly downside butterfly.

In current situation we do not see attractive moments for long entry, and any meaningful pullback would treat as a better price level to short the market.

 

[Sive Morten]

Morning guys,

Recent action separate short-term picture on "before" and "after". In fact, range of hourly fluctuations was so wide that it has swallowed all patterns that we had before.

Currently all eyes should be on this long tailed candle. By taking wider view, it could be W&R of previous lows, which in turn, could become a starting point of Double bottom pattern on 4H chart. This pattern could lead to higher upside retracement, instead of AB=CD pattern that we've discussed previously. All in all, even Double Bottom will not change situation drastically, because its target stands around 5/8 resistance:

One thing that we have to control is the bottom of the huge candle that we've got recently. If market will break it down, then we again will step on the road to 5900 target.

On hourly chart we have big yellow square , the range of the candle keeps all following price action. What is really will be important here is directly of breakout of this range:

 

[Sive Morten]

Morning guys,

yesterday BTC has broken the neckline of our Double Bottom target. This makes overall situation a bit simplier. At least, we know where target is and what is invalidation point.
Target is 7070.

On hourly chart we also have inner AB=CD pattern, which has 1.618 extension at the same 7070 area.

Invalildation point is neckline of DB pattern and next one is "C" point of houlry pattern. If BTC will drop back below neckline and especially below "C" point, this will be bearish sign, which will suggest downside continuation.
But while none of these events will happen, it is possible to watch for bullish continuation patterns, such as "222" Buy, from Fib levels for taking long positions.

 

[RogerTC]

BTC/USD

We couldnt see a follow through on the buy signal at weekly timeframe yet. Stop grabber buy pattern which targets previous high at 8450 is still valid. Interestingly we have cluster of fibonacci expansions just above the highs at 8550. This will be the first key resistance d-level on the weekly charts for bitcoin and we have another big fibonacci agreement resistance zone higher up around 10k-10250.

Looking at our weekly fibonacci support levels; we dont have anything new.. Levels stands as the same. We have 0.618 support at 5700-5800 and massive support cluster of fib levels around 4700-4800k.

When we look at the daily chart; We had a wash and rinse of previous lows 3 days ago and market rallied immediately after that. We have a litte bit resistance around 6900-7000 zone. A pullback is a buying opportunity towards that resistance zone and higher up we have more levels at 7550-7650.

When we zoom down to 4 hr chart; we see a nice conflunce support around 6500. Weekly trend is up, daily is in a buy so fading 4hr sell around 6500 support zone looks reasonable.

Remember the levels may vary depending on exchanges so please re-draw fib levels on your own trading exchanges.

 

[Sive Morten]

Hi Rodger,

Somehow, weekly and daily pictures make me think on existence of bearish dynamic pressure. What do you think?

 

[RogerTC]

Hi Rodger,

Somehow, weekly and daily pictures make me think on existence of bearish dynamic pressure. What do you think?

Hi Sive,

Yes weekly is consolidating and shows weak dynamic pressure but on daily after wash and rinse market closed above macdp and showed a good follow through on the buy signal at first 3 bars and now showing shy pullback. We have weak DP on sell at 4hr.

 

[RogerTC]

Let's try to look at ETH also. I rarely trade other cryptocurrencies rather than bitcoin with leverage.

Looking at the weekly charts; market showing thrusting action here. Weekly trend is down. The market has taken the stops below 196 and now showing a pullback. There are more stops lower below the 132.

On the daily; market testing agreement resistance zone at 250 recently. There is another good agreement resistance zone higher up at 287. These are the resistances that we wıll be looking at so keep a close eye on it. After such a down thrust on weekly; you can expect that first or second resistance to get sold.

Zooming down to 4hr chart; We see poor DP on sell signal. We have good agreement and confluence support levels. This can be risky to long the market with weekly down thrust and trend against us but I m still expecting the market to see the 287 retracement first and then shows a decent pullback. So If you prefer to long the market at 4hr at appropriate support levels you need to drop lower timeframes to watch for dynamic pressure. If you cant get it you need to look for ways to exit the position immediately.

Note: Please re calculate all fib levels on your trading exchanges.

 

[RogerTC]

Ripple is popular nowadays; Having said that I want to share some interesting stuff on weekly only.

If you see the thrust bar in red circle; this the place where the big rally started. Market re visited that level and showed a similar action again. Very interestingly market just turned in to a buy after 32 weeks. I calculated D levels based on daily timeframe but showed them on weekly chart.
Lets see how the market will react on this buy signals on the coming weeks. 0.80; 1-1.15 AND 1.39-1.46 zones are the big resistance zone in front of Ripple.