฿ Bitcoin BTC/USD Weekly, September 24-28, 2018

[Sive Morten]

Morning guys,

We're continue dealing with intraday upside retracement, as we treat it by far. And it seems that our stake on Double Bottom pattern was correct. On Friday market has broken through the neckline. Now we see two possible scenarios here.

The strong scenario suggests that BTC will hold above the neckline. It was already tested btw. In this case, minor hourly retracement will be done and price will re-establish upside action to our target. This is approx. 7080$ area - classic target of Double Bottom pattern.

Weaker scenario suggests AB=CD retracement down to ~ 6450$, which potentially could give "222" Buy here, but drop below neckline is a bad sigh for Double Bottom. And this scenario will have more chances to fail, compares to first one.

It means that neckline is crucial area for bullish scenario right now.

On 1H chart is an illistration, how approximately 1st scenario could be realized. We could get minor "222" Buy pattern where action up could be re-established. Also here you see that retracement has started right after reaching of OP target.
If we will be right on this - market could form big ButterflY "Sell" here and its 1.618 extension coinsides with our two targets - as Double Bottom as 1.618 AB-CD pattern that we have here:

Drop below 6505 lows will tell that this scenario has failed.

 

[Sive Morten]

Morning guys,

yesterday market has confirmed our suspicous on reality of upside reversal. As we've explained earlier, our daily setup suggests reaching of 5900 target and major concern was only about the level, where BTC could re-establish downside action.

Now, we with weekly bearish dynamic pressure on the back and major daily 5900 target we suspect that downside action is re-established. On 4H chart market has broken neckline of potential Double Bottom pattern and almost erased upside AB=CD that we've discussed yesterday on hourly chart:

This leads us to second, weak bullish scenario. Personally I think that this hope is phantom, bu theoretically exist chances that market could form "222" Buy:

To be honest guys, we have short-term bearish setups on FX and Gold markets as well. Besides, Double Bottom failure as a rule leads to the drop below the bottoms, and we have uncompleted daily 5900 target. All this stuff makes me think that it is better search chances for short entry, say, on minor upside retracements and small bearish continuation patterns on 5-15 min charts.

 

[Sive Morten]

Morning guys,

BTC stands in tight range right now, so we do not have a lot of new inputs here. As market has failed yesterday to proceed with Double Bottom - overall position looks weak. Although we keep last chances for the bulls to turn up with 1.618 "222" Buy, but honestly, this chance looks more theoretical rather than real.

Fed statement today, of course, could bring some surprises, but technically picture looks bearish.

Now market has formed minor "222" Sell pattern, which means that downside action should continue and market should reach finally 1.618 AB-CD target. If BTC will fail to hold above 6250 area and turn up, it will mean that we're on a road to daily 5900 target:

 

[Sive Morten]

Morning guys,

Fundamental background today is more friendly to USD. Besides, the shape of price action on 4H chart tells that current upside channel should be treated as retracement after collapse. Retracement has a feature to be over at some moment. Thus, based on picture that we have right now, its just a question of time when BTC will drop.
It means that if even we have some bullish patterns inside the channel, it is better to use it for short entry at better price level, rather than trade them long.

Currently BTC still stands inside the channel, and we even have bullish divergence here, but in fact everything depends on trendline support:

If market will hold above it, it could form "222' Buy today:

But if it will break it down - this "222" could turn to butterfly and lead market to next downside target around 6250 - XOP.

It means that if you want to go long anyway - try to do it as closer to trendline support as possible. At least, use "222" Buy pattern.

 

[Sive Morten]

Morning guys,

BTC doesn't show big volatility within recent few weeks. Once it has dropped, price has turned to upside retracement, which takes the shape of upside channel. Yesterday we were focused on the trendline of this channel and this was our vital indicator. As market was able to hold above it - upward action has started. So, we've got another leg inside the flag. Now market is coming to 5/8 Fib resistance on 4H chart around 6900 area:

On 1H chart BTC has completed 1.618 AB-CD pattern. So, price could move slightly higher, but existence of Fib resistance and Agreement area increases chances on technical bounce today. In general, upper trendline is as important as lower one, because it also will work as good indicator if it will be broken up. Still, daily picture mostly keeps bearish context and channel that we have here mostly looks like flag consolidation pattern.

Next target will be around 7100, if BTC will complete upside AB=CD on 4H. This, in turn, could give us "222" Sell. But this story is mostly for next week.

 

[Sive Morten]

Interesting article on ETC on Bloomberg recently. Experts wait for rally:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...-lees-says-ethereum-is-poised-for-a-big-rally