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Chapter 28, Part I. Intermarket Analysis - Commodities. Page 3

Discussion in 'Complete Trading Education- Forex Military School' started by Sive Morten, Dec 26, 2013.

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  1. Sive Morten

    Sive Morten Special Consultant to the FPA

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    To look at visual correlation it’s better to compare Gold price with either Dollar Index or with some currency that depend of Gold. One of such country is Australia – second major Gold producer in the world and, single representative in major pairs. The value of export of Gold is about 215 Tones. At the current price it’s about 11 Billion Dollars in 2010. So, AUD/USD has not a bad link with Gold, although, you may find that even EUR/USD and USD/CHF also have impressive correlations:


    Chart #1 | AUD/USD and Gold Spot monthly chart
    [​IMG]

    Although we can see, that the depth of fluctuations a bit different, the direction is very similar – tops and deeps coincide.

    It looks a bit different with the Dollar Index, since AUD/USD and Dollar index are not the same, as you understand:


    Chart #2 | Dollar Index and Gold Spot monthly chart
    [​IMG]

    Although major breakeven points coincide, still the Dollar Index has more choppy action. And, here is the last one comparison – with CHF/USD pair:


    Chart #3 | CHF/USD and Gold Spot monthly chart
    [​IMG]

    Pipruit: Wow, I mostly like this one – they are almost repeating each other. Why is that?​


    Commander in Pips: Well, the Swiss Franc is one of the safest and most reliable currencies in the world and it also could be treated as a safe-haven. Although it’s not as safe as gold, but still it could give you additional return, since you can buy CHF and invest in Swiss Bonds, while you can't do this with Gold. The point is that Swiss currency is backed by Gold reserves for 25%!

    Speaking in terms of correlation, the CHF has correlation with gold around 91.7% since 2000! I mean CHF directly, if you will plot USD/CHF (common pair for spot forex) then it will have negative correlation of the same value – “-91.7%.
     
    #1 Sive Morten, Dec 26, 2013
    Lasted edited by : Oct 8, 2016
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