Comments and forex-analytics from FBS Holdings Inc. brokerage company

[wynnasuju]

NZD/USD: Elliot waves (Westpac)
Friday, September 7, 2012 - 08:19

Analysts at Westpac suggest that NZD/USD remains in a very broad upward trend since March 2009. In their view, the triangular consolidation since August 2011 appears to be a correction of the rally from May 2010 – the fourth corrective Elliot wave which may be subdivided into 5 smaller waves. Any eventual breakout from the triangle “should be upwards in a fifth and final wave to fresh record high, probably in 2013.”

Chart. Weekly NZD/USD

NZD/USD: Elliot waves (Westpac) // FBS Markets Inc.

 

[wynnasuju]

Westpac, UBS about NFP and QE
Friday, September 7, 2012 - 09:13

Analysts at Westpac claim that market's participants generally think that US August non-farm payrolls will show a stronger reading than economists’ consensus of 123K, given the better ADP survey and also the non-manufacturing ISM. However, the specialists expect NFP of 80K. In their view, the odds are towards more QE from the Fed. The serious doubts about the Fed’s easing may arise only if payrolls reach 185K. “Even a strong payrolls headline might not impact Bernanke’s inclination towards easing” as the unemployment will likely remain above 8%.

Strategists at UBS think that the NFP number has to be very strong to support the greenback.

EUR/USD keeps moving within the recent uptrend.

Chart. Daily EUR/USD

Westpac, UBS about NFP and QE // FBS Markets Inc.

 

[wynnasuju]

NZD/USD: short-term technical picture
Friday, September 7, 2012 - 09:59

Improved risk sentiment made NZD/USD recoil up from its 100-day MA. The pair’s rising for the third day in a row. Wednesday’s daily candle looks like a ‘hammer’.

Kiwi approached resistance of $0.8045 (mid-August minimums). If New Zealand’s dollar overcomes this obstacle, it will get chance to rise to $0.8100 and $0.8145. However, resistance band of $0.8045/69 looks fairly strong – highs and lows of the last 2 months area clustered in this area. If NZD/USD fails to het higher, the pair will confirm a double top in August and will be poised for a decline to $0.7840 (July 24 minimum).

The prices have subsided to the levels right below the 50-day MA at $0.8035 for now. Support for the pair lies at $0.7985 (200-day MA) and $0.7925 (100-day MA).

Chart. Daily NZD/USD

NZD/USD: short-term technical picture // FBS Markets Inc.

 

[wynnasuju]

Gold’s close to $1700 ahead of NFP
Friday, September 7, 2012 - 11:04

Gold set a 6-month maximum yesterday, testing the levels above $1,700 as its price was driven up the ECB’s announcement of bond buying and hopes of monetary easing in the US.

Today it’s all about the Fed: after ADP said the US private sector added in August the most jobs since March, the market started looking forward to higher NFP and gold price retreated lower.

Analysts at Standard Bank claim that the gold market was pricing in a further $250bn in US QE. In their view, the central bank will announce more, so gold has room for “much more upside”. The weaker the non-farm payrolls are today, the better this is for gold bulls. Analysts say that anything below consensus of 123K would do, while the readings above 150K will be negative for the gold price.

According to UBS, the initial support for gold will be at $1,650/60 and “a number of about 200K would likely leave gold scrambling back to the low $1,600s”. Societe Generale expects NFP to post 70K and gold price to keep rising.

Chart. Spot gold

Gold

 

[salikfx]

AUD/USD extends the upside
Wednesday, September 12, 2012 - 09:55
Last days were positive for the Australian currency: AUD/USD has finally reached the $1.0500 mark. Today the pair managed to overcome a strong resistance at $1.0475 (April maximums followed by a downtrend). Next resistance is seen at $1.0528 (August 17 maximum), $1.0544 (August 23 maximum) and $1.0612 (August 9 maximum). It is necessary to note that on the upside the pair is also limited by the trend line, connecting 2011 and 2012 maximums.

Analysts at Westpac recommend buying AUD/USD at current levels, setting a stop at $1.0220 and a target of $1.0600. They expect the high-yielding Aussie to react strongly on the tommorow Fed's announcement.

Presented by: FBS Markets Inc.

 

[Joh]

Thank you Salixfx-good info

 

[Thomas Herrnan]

Great strategies!! thanks for sharing