Comments and forex-analytics from FBS Holdings Inc. brokerage company

[wynnasuju]

RBS: thoughts about GBP
Tuesday, September 4, 2012 - 10:14

Analysts at RBS claim that British pound is overvalued at the current levels. In their view, GBP/USD’s fair value lies closer to $1.5650.

The specialists say that the next couple of weeks seem set to be important in determining how currencies and financial assets trade into early December.

According to them, further easing by the Fed should help limit the downside in GBP/USD over the next month. RBS underlined that Bernanke appeared to open the door a little more to further easing and even a better than expected payroll number on Friday seems unlikely to change this.

Chart. Daily GBP/USD

RBS: thoughts about GBP // FBS Markets Inc.

 

[wynnasuju]

UBS: bearish view on AUD/JPY
Tuesday, September 4, 2012 - 11:12

Analysts at UBS think that AUD/JPY may continue to decline. The specialists note that the pair’s testing 80.10 (38% retracement of the advance from June 1 minimum to August 21 maximum).

In their view, if Aussie breaks this support, it will head to 79.50 (July minimum) and 79.03 (50% retracement).

“With the recent weakness seeing daily and weekly trending tools turn negative, the picture is bearish,” says the bank.

Chart. Daily AUD/JPY

UBS: bearish view on AUD/JPY // FBS Markets Inc.

 

[wynnasuju]

MIG Bank: trading USD/CHF
Tuesday, September 4, 2012 - 11:48

Analysts at MIG Bank note that USD/CHF continues to move down within declining channel. In their view, the pair will slide to strong support area between 0.9420 (June minimum) and 0.9366 (May 21 minimum). In addition, the bank considers the broader technical picture to be positive. The specialists think that one should enter longs at these levels. So, their recommendation is to place buy limit at 0.9423 targeting 0.9556/0.9800/0.9972 and stopping at 0.9290.

Chart. Daily USD/CHF

MIG Bank: trading USD/CHF // FBS Markets Inc.

 

[wynnasuju]

September 5: forex news
Wednesday, September 5, 2012 - 06:17

Demand for riskier assets shrank due to the signs of global economic slowdown. MSCI Asia-Pacific index of shares outside Japan tumbled 1.2% to a 5-week low.

AUD/USD slid to 6-week minimum below $1.0190 as Australia’s GDP added only 0.6% in Q2 (cons.: 0.8%; prev.: 1.4%). Moreover, a private survey showed the nation’s services industry contracted in August at the fastest pace in 4 months. NZD/USD remains under pressure testing support at $0.7925. USD/JPY rose to 78.53 in Asia, but then dropped below the opening price to 78.38.

EUR/USD slid from the recent highs above $1.2600 declining for the second day. Investors await the ECB’s meeting tomorrow: a lot of expectations about the central bank’s acting to help the European countries fight the debt crisis have been built and now the pair’s pricing in the risk of disappointment.

Today watch for Spanish, Italian, euro zone’s and British services PMI data. European retail sales released at 9:00 GMT may show contraction.

In the evening all eyes will be on the Bank of Canada’s meeting. USD/CAD lifted from the 3-month lows but still remains close to these minimums. The BOC is expected to leave interest rates unchanged, so investors are focused on whether Governor Mark Carney will change the message that the central bank may need to hike rates.

September 5: forex news // FBS Markets Inc.

 

[wynnasuju]

Key options expiring today
Wednesday, September 5, 2012 - 06:57

Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (2 p.m. GMT).

Here are the key options expiring today:

EUR/USD: $1.2500, $1.2530, $1.2535, $1.2550, $1.2585, $1.2650;

GBP/USD: $1.5825;

USD/JPY: 78.00, 78.60;

AUD/USD: $1.0250, $1.0400;

EUR/JPY: 97.60, 97.70, 99.00;

EUR/GBP: 0.7940;

AUD/USD: $1.0250, $1.0400.

Key options expiring today // FBS Markets Inc.

 

[wynnasuju]

Greece: a 6-day working week?
Wednesday, September 5, 2012 - 07:32

It seems that hard times for the Greek population are only beginning.

According to the leaked letter from the Troika (the European commission, the ECB and the IMF) to the Greek finance and labor ministries, Greece’s creditors are demanding that the nation’s government introduce a 6-day working week and increase working time as part of the terms for a second bailout.

The Troika inspectors return to Athens this week after a long delay caused by political turmoil in Greece. The officials are expected to deliver a verdict in October that will determine whether Greece will get the next trance of financial help worth 30 billion euro.

Greece is in the midst of a 5-year recession, with nearly 2 million people currently unemployed (the unemployment level is almost 30%). Greek authorities are trying to enact spending cuts of a further 11.6 billion euro which were to have been implemented in June. The nation’s government is pleading for more time – 4 years instead of 2 – to fulfill debt reduction targets and spending cuts. At the same time, such extension of time would require more help from the euro zone and this looks problematic.

Photo from churchillsboot.com

Greece: a 6-day working week? // FBS Markets Inc.

 

[wynnasuju]

Forecast Pte: year-long downtrend’s intact
Wednesday, September 5, 2012 - 08:13

Technical analysts at Forecast Pte underline that EUR/USD is still trading within the downward channel.

The resistance line of this channel is connecting $1.4549 (August 29, 2011 maximum) and $1.4247 (October 2, 2011 maximum), while the support line is going through $1.3146 (October 4 minimum).

The specialists underline that during the past year euro has never climbed above the channel. For today EUR/USD’s upper limit is situated around $1.2674. Forecast Pte expects the pair to retest $1.2040 (July minimum).

Chart. Daily EUR/USD

Forecast Pte: year-long downtrend

 

[wynnasuju]

BarCap recommends selling GBP/USD
Wednesday, September 5, 2012 - 09:12

Barclays Capital recommends selling GBP/USD with target at $1.5600 and stop at $1.5950. The pair faces technical resistance at $1.5915.

The specialists reason this way: if ECB disappoints the markets on Thursday with no further details on debt purchases, EUR/USD is vulnerable to a correction. GBP/USD is highly correlated with EUR/USD. If US non-farm payrolls come above the forecast of 121K, for example, at 150K, US dollar will have a lift. The analysts don’t expect QE from the Fed.

Barclays underlined that UK PMIs have been mixed but official data remains very weak, so the Bank of England will ease its policy. According to the bank, in November the BoE may announce 50 billion pounds of QE and cut its benchmark rate by 25 bps.

Chart. Daily GBP/USD

BarCap recommends selling GBP/USD // FBS Markets Inc.

 

[wynnasuju]

BarCap: why USD/JPY may turn up
Wednesday, September 5, 2012 - 10:52

1) Reduced tail risk in the US and the euro area economies and potentially higher US yields.

2) Room to catch up to widening yield gap.

3) Relatively easy Japanese monetary policy.

4) Japan’s sovereign downgrade risk: 10% hike in consumption tax in 2015 alone is not enough to bring Japan’s fiscal deficit back to surplus. Also, there is a non-negligible implementation risk.

5) Worsening external balance for Japan.

6) Continued outflow from Japan through overseas M&A by Japanese firms.

7) High intervention risk below 78 yen: since the massive JPY selling intervention last October, Japanese officials have indicated that the level of the JPY rather than the speed or volatility is their concern and the reason for the intervention.

Chart. H4 USD/JPY

BarCap: why USD/JPY may turn up // FBS Markets Inc.

 

[wynnasuju]

Commerzbank: USD/CAD may rebound
Wednesday, September 5, 2012 - 12:09

Technical analysts at Commerzbank claim that despite the fact that the outlook for USD/CAD is negative as long as it’s trading below 0.9948 (August 23 maximum), they expect the pair to level out in the support area of 0.9843/00 and then start rising once again.

The specialists say that if USD/CAD closes the day above 0.9948, one may expect it to reach 1.0045 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the advance from April lows to June highs). Also note that there’s bearish convergence on the daily MACD – a bullish signal.

On the downside, the decline below 0.9800 will bring USD/CAD to 0.9725 (August 2011 minimum).

Chart. Daily USD/CAD

Commerzbank: USD/CAD may rebound // FBS Markets Inc.