Currency Strength and Weakness for Friday 8th March 2013

Andrew Mitchem

Special Consultant to the FPA
Messages
2,006
Hi Traders,

I make my suggestions every day based on where I see the market heading over the next 24 hours. Use my analysis below to aid your trading and to help you keep on the right side of the market.

My suggestions are posted by 6pm EST each day.

** The US Non-Farm Payroll announcement is released later today – on Friday at 8:30am EST. Be careful with any open trades around that time.

** The clocks change in the US this weekend. This means that for all non-US and Canadian readers, my posts will be published 1 hour earlier starting next week.


Overall there is renewed strength in the EUR and CHF.

Overall there is weakness in the JPY, GBP and USD.


Trading Directions I am favouring for the next 24 hours

Buy Trades - EUR/USD, EUR/JPY, EUR/GBP, EUR/NZD, CHF/JPY

Sell Trades - GBP/CHF


Have a fantastic weekend.
Andrew


- Andrew Mitchem
The Forex Trading Coach
30 minute a day "full time" forex trading?

Learn how I do it>>

 
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George Mcall

Corporal
Messages
89
Hi Traders,

I make my suggestions every day based on where I see the market heading over the next 24 hours. Use my analysis below to aid your trading and to help you keep on the right side of the market.

My suggestions are posted by 6pm EST each day.

** The US Non-Farm Payroll announcement is released later today – on Friday at 8:30am EST. Be careful with any open trades around that time.

** The clocks change in the US this weekend. This means that for all non-US and Canadian readers, my posts will be published 1 hour earlier starting next week.


Overall there is renewed strength in the EUR and CHF.

Overall there is weakness in the JPY, GBP and USD.


Trading Directions I am favouring for the next 24 hours

Buy Trades - EUR/USD, EUR/JPY, EUR/GBP, EUR/NZD, CHF/JPY

Sell Trades - GBP/CHF


Have a fantastic weekend.
Andrew


- Andrew Mitchem
The Forex Trading Coach
30 minute a day "full time" forex trading?

Learn how I do it>>

Disaster yesterday with the Euro strengthening and the Dollar weakening. However the thing about trading is that you cannot win everyday. I think Manny is right that one should stay on the sidelines until after NFP which should give the market some direction.
 
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Andrew Mitchem

Special Consultant to the FPA
Messages
2,006
Disaster yesterday with the Euro strengthening and the Dollar weakening. However the thing about trading is that you cannot win everyday. I think Manny is right that one should stay on the sidelines until after NFP which should give the market some direction.
Hi George,

Sorry to hear you had a bad day yesterday with the strengthening in the EUR.

The EUR suggestions I made yesterday were on the EUR/USD and EUR/AUD, however I couldn't find any short trade setups which meant I missed the upward moves but at least there were no losses as I was predominantly looking for sell trades on those two pairs.

I hope this helps.

Have a great weekend,
Andrew


- Andrew Mitchem
The Forex Trading Coach
30 minute a day "full time" forex trading?

Learn how I do it>>

 
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George Mcall

Corporal
Messages
89
Hi George,

Sorry to hear you had a bad day yesterday with the strengthening in the EUR.

The EUR suggestions I made yesterday were on the EUR/USD and EUR/AUD, however I couldn't find any short trade setups which meant I missed the upward moves but at least there were no losses as I was predominantly looking for sell trades on those two pairs.

I hope this helps.

Have a great weekend,
Andrew


- Andrew Mitchem
The Forex Trading Coach
30 minute a day "full time" forex trading?

Learn how I do it>>

Thank you for your understanding - win some and lose others -that's life and trading!!!!
 
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George Mcall

Corporal
Messages
89
Something I watch is retail traders sentiment and will look to trade against it. At present the details from Currensee are:

Short Long
Positions 949 717
Volume 41% 59%
Avg Price 1.32631 1.34975

On Oanda 49.23% are long and 50.77% are short.

This is pretty evenly matched which limits the chance of any breakout.

Looking at Currensee,those that are short are nicely in the money while things for those that are long look dire.
 

George Mcall

Corporal
Messages
89
Since my trading plan today is to sit on my hands until NFP release, I have been looking at the charts and thinking what (from a technical point of view) I might do if we see some price action following the release. I attach a JPG of the 4H chart. If it were not for the NFP release, I would be looking to short EUR/USD on the assumption that the falling trend line might hold. However before the NFP release, it would be very bold. Assuming that there is some price action following the release, the trend line will either hold or break. If it starts to go short, then I will look to enter a half position with a potential add on a pull back (which I do not think will happen). If the trend line breaks then following the break I will look to enter long on a pullback which I think will probably happen. I really do think the EUR/USD is at a crossroads.

Societe Generale reckon we will see 1.2000. Here is a link:

eFXnews : Regardless Of What Happens In Italy, EUR Will Drop To 1.20 In Coming Months - SocGen

Another of the major banks reckoned next stop will be 1.4000 though I cannot find the details.

One of them has to be right because it is difficult to see how both can be.

Thus I think today's NFP will set the trend for the next few months and possibly the rest of the year.

A good figure I think will bring about USD strength as the QE bogie man starts to receive the last rites. A bad figure will also bring about USD strength as a result of everyone running for the hills and de-leveraging which will involve buying USD. A middle of the road figure will likely see a break of the trend line with EUR/USD going long. There will almost certainly be a pull back as people think about it and there is a need to test the trend line which hopefully will become support.

Another thing worth a mention is that potentially there is a double bottom at 1.29653 though this could be construed as a descending triangle with that level being re-attached with a view to breaking down lower.

As I said the EUR/USD is at a crossroads and a break or otherwise of the falling trend line I think will determine the future for the next few months and possibly the rest of the year.

EURUSD H4 09 57 08 03 13.jpg
 
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George Mcall

Corporal
Messages
89
Well it looks like the falling trend line has broken and were it not for the NFP release, I would be looking to enter long at the big figure or as close as possible. However my hands remain firmly sat upon.
 
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