Currency Strength and Weakness for Thursday 28th March 2013

[Andrew Mitchem]

Hi Traders,

I make my suggestions every day based on where I see the market heading over the next 24 hours. Use my analysis below to aid your trading and to help you keep on the right side of the market.

My suggestions are posted by 6pm EST each day.

Important: I would look to close out any open trades before the end of the day due to the Easter break.

My next Daily Trades Suggestions post here will be on Wednesday 3rd April - which will be Tuesday evening EST

Make sure you get you own FREE copy of my Lot Size Calculator MT4 trading tool - click on my signature at the bottom of this post to get your copy.


Overall there is strength in the CAD, USD and JPY.

Overall there is weakness in the EUR, CHF and AUD.


Trading Directions I am favoring for the next 24 hours

Buy Trades – CAD/CHF, USD/CHF

Sell Trades – EUR/USD, EUR/CAD, AUD/USD, CHF/JPY, AUD,CAD


To Your Trading Success and enjoy the Easter break.
Andrew

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- Andrew Mitchem
The Forex Trading Coach
30 minute a day "full time" forex trading?
Learn how I do it>>

 

[Deborah Moon]

Hi Andrew, thanks for directions. I'm selling EUR/USD things not looking good for Euro !
Have a Happy Easter and thanks for your support.

Deborah

 

[Joh]

Happy Easter to you and your family and thank you for your posts -
have downloaded your calculator but still have to work out how to use it.

 

[George Mcall]

Happy Easter to you and your family and thank you for your posts -
have downloaded your calculator but still have to work out how to use it.

Join the club - a full video showing how to download the calculator and its use would be useful.

 

[George Mcall]

Hi Andrew, thanks for directions. I'm selling EUR/USD things not looking good for Euro !
Have a Happy Easter and thanks for your support.

Deborah

I agree that the only road for the EUR/USD is south. The question is 'where to you board the train (or bus if you do not want to mix metaphors!!). On the hourly chart the resistance sits at 1.28408. Thus an entry just below can be justified. The next level of resistance sits at 1.28870 which has been a level over which the bulls and the bears have fought many battles. It has been support, then turned resistance and back again and so on. It actually represents the high of the 3.00 pm GMT hourly candle on 26th March 2013. It was the high before the current move short. Beyond that I have a resistance level at 1.30090 which I am wondering about and probably best delete it as really there is not enough there to justify its retention. It really represents the resistance back on 22nd March 2013 before that massive gap down over some 150 pips over the following weekend. So there are two levels at which one could go short. On the other hand, one could just go short and hope though hope is not a trading strategy. There is always that risk of a short squeeze and in markets that are thinning as the Easter weekend approaches this possibility increases. However I am not sure there would be much call for a long Euro with the Muppet Show continuing in Cyprus and likely to move to Slovenia for the next production. Nevertheless any short squeeze is likely to be precipitated by the closing of short positions rather than the opening of fresh long positions. However with the German economic miracle losing its shine, there seems no reason for short positions to be closed as the probabilities seem that the EUR/USD will continue to grind lower. At least with FXCM there is no swap on being short EUR/USD and thus it is not costing to hold.

 

[aicohn]

Would it be possible to maybe make a "sticky" at the top of the thread with suggested use for these calls? I'm not quite sure. Are we looking for simple candlestick patterns on a 1-hr or 4-hr chart, or are we looking for trends & selling resistance (if a downer) & buying support (if an upper)? Are we buying or selling other obvious areas of chart resistance?

This wold be good for 2 reasons:

1) I'm confused. This would help.

2) It would hoopefully mitigate the occasional sarcastic poster who comes in here saying, "You said these currencies would go up. I bought them (at random time). I got creamed. Therefore you stink!"

Thanks.

 

[Joh]

Hi Andrew

Thank you for all your hard work and wishing you and yours a Happy Easter.

 

[George Mcall]

Would it be possible to maybe make a "sticky" at the top of the thread with suggested use for these calls? I'm not quite sure. Are we looking for simple candlestick patterns on a 1-hr or 4-hr chart, or are we looking for trends & selling resistance (if a downer) & buying support (if an upper)? Are we buying or selling other obvious areas of chart resistance?

This wold be good for 2 reasons:

1) I'm confused. This would help.

2) It would hoopefully mitigate the occasional sarcastic poster who comes in here saying, "You said these currencies would go up. I bought them (at random time). I got creamed. Therefore you stink!"

Thanks.

The problem with the forex market and indeed any market is that it moves almost completely at random. It can go up just as easily as it can down and not even every word from Mr Draghi always sends the Euro long.

However the thing is that the word 'almost' is used. This suggests that there is a greater probability that the market might go long in certain circumstances or indeed short in other circumstances. All Andrew is saying that there is a greater probability that the market may go in one direction than another. The next thing to do is look at the charts and determine levels where the market is more likely to go in one direction than another. For example at the S2 level, the market is more likely to bounce back than continue on towards the S3 level. Further when the price action has extended to the actual daily range (say 14 periods) the probabilities are that it will retrace. Now once simply adds up the points in favor of a trade and the points against it. Where the points in favor are more than the points against it and the balance is within your comfort levels - enter the trade. If you feel unable to sleep with the position open, maybe there would be good sense to look for another as there are always plenty. There is no point not being able to sleep because you have a position open. I am sure there are plenty out there which would not stop you sleeping while they are open.

Anyway the whole thing is a bit like a game of Cluedo where all you can do is look for the clues. When you think that it is Professor Plum in the Library with the candle stick, go short. If you have done your homework correctly, the probabilities are that you will be right. However the market moves as the market moves and nothing is ever guaranteed. If you are wrong and you follow the same system, i.e. using Andrew's calls as one of a number of possible clues, then there is a greater probability that you will be right this second time though again nothing guaranteed - just a probability. If you carry on you will probably winning more trades than you lose or depending how you do your risk reward winning more pips than you lose.

I hope this sense and helps.