Thank you again for your analysis. I am puzzled by the suggestion of GBP strength. I attach a copy of the daily EUR/GBP, GBP/CAD, and GBP/AUD charts with equidistant channels shown. At present GBP would appear to be at the top of the channel (bottom for EUR/GBP). This the probability would be for GBP to go short. If there were to be a break of the channel, then I agree that the probabilities that GBP would go long. However there has not been a break yet.Overall there is strength in the JPY with the GBP and USD also showing strength against certain currencies.
Overall there is weakness in the EUR, AUD, CAD, NZD and to a lesser extent the CHF.
Today’s Trading Pairs - Likely Strengths and Weaknesses
Buy Trades - GBP/AUD, GBP/NZD, GBP/CAD, GBP/CHF, USD/CAD
Sell Trades - EUR/USD, EUR/JPY, EUR/GBP, CAD/JPY, CHF/JPY, AUD/JPY, NZD/USD, NZD/JPY
I agree with your suggestion that EUR/GBP has a greater probaility going of going long. However I do feel that in this case you might just be trading a couple of duds. The EUR over the last 24 hours has drop over 200 pips across most pairs and GBP whist having strengthened just a bit over the last 24 hours has dropped over 1,000 pips against some pairs since the start of the year. I agree that it is probably heavily oversold though I do not have the courage to fade such a strong trend.
I agree that JPY has found significant strength. Having been flat on its back for most of this year, over the last couple of weeks it has been the 'come-back kid'.
I agree that USD/CAD is likely to continue to go long. However entering at the current levels is chasing the trade. However entering at the daily Tenkan level which is 1.01375 would make sense though in all probabilities it is unlikely to be seen today (though after yesterday with say EUR/JPY - you never know).
Anyway thank you for your post and your thoughts.
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