Current Market Sentiment | RBA Cash Rate

Jarratt Davis

Special Consultant to the FPA
There is no trade call for the session, however we will continue to monitor incoming data for any potential opportunities.

Current Market Sentiment:

Yesterday's New York session saw Personal Consumption Expenditure for December released from the US, of which the core showed a miss on the m/m figure of 0.0% versus expectations of 0.1%, but the y/y figure moved up to 1.4%. This is the first reading above 1.3% since January 2015, however the November reading was also revised up to 1.4%. This is still a fair way off from the Fed's 2% target, but a step in the right direction.

During Asia the RBA left it's cash rate unchanged at 2.0% as anticipated. The accompanying rate statement was fairly upbeat and signaled growing confidence in a domestic recovery. It stated, "the available information suggests that the expansion in the non-mining parts of the economy strengthened during 2015", and that "Surveys of business conditions moved to above average levels, employment growth picked up and the unemployment rate declined in the second half of the year." Inflation still remains a concern, with low inflation through 2015 being attributed partly to declining prices for oil and some utilities, however the report also stated that underlying measures of inflation remained low. This is expected to remain the case with subdued growth for labor costs, and restrained inflation elsewhere in the world. In the closing paragraph it stated that "Continued low inflation may provide scope for easier policy, should that be appropriate to lend support to demand", leaving the door open for future easing should the conditions warrant such an action. However, for now, the RBA sees "reasonable prospects for continued growth in the economy" and with "inflation close to target", "the current setting of monetary policy remained appropriate".

The AUD initially spiked higher after the release, then retreated below pre-release levels.

Coming up during London we will see the latest UK Construction PMI, as well as unemployment figures from Spain, Germany, and the EZ. Check out this weeks risk event video here to learn more about this release.

P.S. - If you want to learn more about how I trade, check out the link below

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