Daily Analysis

1696325702685.png
EURUSD

EUR/USD Decline Extends Over 100 Pips Amid Strong US Dollar and Global Uncertainty
The decline in EUR/USD exceeded 100 pips on Monday, resuming the downward trend that began during Friday's American session. The pair's weakness persisted despite a brief rebound.
The primary driver behind the EUR/USD decline remains the strong US Dollar, fueled by a combination of risk-off sentiment in global markets and rising yields. The US Dollar Index (DXY) has risen for six of the last seven days, currently hovering just below 107.00. Mixed results were seen on Wall Street after a relief rally due to the US lawmakers' agreement to avoid a government shutdown. Concurrently, US yields remained strong, with the 10-year yield reaching its highest point since 2007 at 4.70%. Federal Reserve officials' remarks about the economy's resilience further contributed to the dollar's strength.
US data exceeded expectations, with the ISM Manufacturing PMI at 49 in September, surpassing the market consensus of 47.7. Upcoming reports include the JOLTS report on Tuesday and the ADP report on Wednesday. The key labor market data, Nonfarm Payrolls, is scheduled for release on Friday. Weaker data could weaken the US Dollar, while stronger data would bolster the dollar's prospects, reinforcing expectations of a Fed rate hike.
In the Eurozone, the unemployment rate dropped as expected from 6.5% to 6.4% in August. The final reading of the Manufacturing PMI for the region remained at 43.4. No significant Eurozone data is expected on Tuesday.
EUR/USD continues the selloff direction, with increasing pressure from the strength of the dollar, pushing for a breakout below the current support area around the 1.0500 region. The next levels to watch for are 1.0400, followed by 1.0200.

Resistance 3 Resistance 2 Resistance 1 Support 1 Support 2 Support 3
1.0700 1.0650 1.0600 1.0500 1.0400 1.0200

1696325702704.png
GBPUSD

GBP/USD Near Recent Low Below 1.2100 as Bank of England Pauses Rate Hikes
The GBP/USD pair is trading near its recent low, below 1.2100, after the Bank of England surprised markets by pausing its interest rate hikes. This move, the first of its kind since December 2021, has weakened the British Pound (GBP) against the strong US Dollar (USD). The USD Index (DXY), which tracks the USD against other currencies, has reached its highest level since November 2022, thanks to the belief that the Federal Reserve will continue its hawkish stance and possibly raise rates again by the end of the year.
Moreover, concerns about rising borrowing costs and a generally weaker risk sentiment have boosted the USD's safe-haven status, putting pressure on the GBP/USD pair. There are no significant UK economic releases on the horizon, leaving the pair sensitive to USD dynamics, including the upcoming US JOLTS Job Openings data and the US NFP report due later in the week.
GBP/USD continues to experience selling pressure, finding support at the 1.2100 level. The bearish outlook persists and could potentially drive the price towards the historical level of 1.1800, a level not seen since March 23 of this year.

Resistance 3 Resistance 2 Resistance 1 Support 1 Support 2 Support 3
1.2400 1.2290 1.2200 1.2110 1.2000 1.1900

1696325702728.png
USDJPY

USD/JPY Approaches 11-Month Peak as BoJ Maintains Loose Monetary Policy
USD/JPY is trading just below its 11-month peak at 149.80 in early European trading. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) recently carried out an unscheduled bond purchase, reaffirming its commitment to a loose monetary policy to control rising yields in Japanese government bonds.
BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda emphasized the central bank's readiness to implement further easing measures if necessary, clarifying misconceptions about a "quiet exit" from monetary easing.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) stands at 107.10, an 11-month high, driven by rising US Treasury yields, which have reached their highest level since 2007 at 4.68%. Concerns over the US Federal Reserve's interest rate trajectory are also boosting the USD's safe-haven appeal.
Market attention is on upcoming US employment data, including the ADP report on Wednesday and Nonfarm Payrolls on Friday.
USDJPY's bullish momentum continues stronger with the pair close to touching the critical level at 150. The intervention possibility may lead to a selloff after touching this historical level.

Resistance 3 Resistance 2 Resistance 1 Support 1 Support 2 Support 3
155.00 152.70 151.50 148.00 146.50 146.00
1696325702750.png
GOLD

Gold Prices Extend 7-Day Decline to Reach 7-Month Low
Gold prices have continued their seven-day downward trend, hitting a low of $1,820, the lowest since March 9. This decline is primarily attributed to the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance on interest rates, which has driven US Treasury bond yields to historic highs and strengthened the US Dollar. Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester's comments about inflation risks further solidified expectations of rate hikes, leading investors to favor the US Dollar over gold.
Despite a generally weaker risk sentiment in the market, which usually supports gold's safe status, the precious metal failed to find support. Mixed Chinese PMI data and the passage of a US stopgap funding bill had only a short-lived impact, as concerns about a deeper economic downturn dominated.
Gold continues the selloff and goes further toward the 1800 next strong support level. Yields and the dollar continue up after some correction which may lead to more selloff on gold.

Resistance 3 Resistance 2 Resistance 1 Support 1 Support 2 Support 3
1971 1950 1825 1800 1760 1725
 

Attachments

  • 1696325702668.png
    1696325702668.png
    22.4 KB · Views: 1
  • 1696325702643.png
    1696325702643.png
    38.6 KB · Views: 1
  • 1696325702656.png
    1696325702656.png
    23.7 KB · Views: 1
Economic Calendar:

Daily Markets Performance:


1696412901752.png




Market Volatility and Central Bank Actions Amid Rising Bond Yields

On Wednesday, Asia-Pacific markets experienced widespread weakness, with Korean and Japanese stocks both declining by over 2% following a 16-year high in the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield. The Japanese yen strengthened against the U.S. dollar, briefly reaching 150 overnight. When asked about potential intervention to support the yen, Japan's Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki declined to comment but mentioned Japan's readiness to respond to significant currency movements.
Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand decided to keep its key interest rate at 5.5%. Despite stronger-than-expected GDP growth in the June quarter, the bank noted a subdued growth outlook for the country. New Zealand's GDP rose by 3.2% compared to the same period last year.
In the US, job openings increased to 9.61 million in August, up from less than 9 million the previous month, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This report led swaps traders to raise their bets on the Federal Reserve raising rates in December to over a 50% probability.
Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, who is not voting this year, emphasized the need to keep rates elevated for an extended period. He projected a single rate cut in 2024, likely towards the end of the year. These comments followed a series of hawkish statements from other Federal Reserve policymakers.
The global bond selloff persisted, with investors adapting to a new era of higher-for-longer interest rates. Yields continued to rise, with the 10-year Treasury yield reaching a fresh 16-year peak, and the benchmark 10-year Japanese government bond yield remained at a 10-year high. These developments contributed to a risk-averse and unsettled European session, as indicated by futures pointing to a lower market opening.




A graph with lines and numbersDescription automatically generated with medium confidence

The US Dollar Remains Strong with Positive Data and Cautious Market Sentiment
The US Dollar remains strong, supported by positive US data and cautious market sentiment. The EUR/USD pair hit multi-month lows due to the stronger US Dollar, buoyed by strong US labor market data. The Eurozone will report wholesale inflation and retail sales data, while the US awaits ADP employment figures.
The US JOLTS Job Opening report surpassed expectations, pushing the 10-year Treasury bond yield to 4.80%, reflecting a strong economy. More job data is expected in the coming days, which could further boost the dollar's rally.
The US Dollar's strength is also fueled by market expectations of prolonged higher interest rates from the Federal Reserve and deteriorating market sentiment.
Eurozone data to be released includes the Producer Price Index, Retail Sales, and final HICP PMIs for August. Market participants believe the European Central Bank has reached its terminal rate.
In the Eurozone, the unemployment rate dropped as expected from 6.5% to 6.4% in August. The final reading of the Manufacturing PMI for the region remained at 43.4. No significant Eurozone data is expected on Tuesday.
EUR/USD is still in the bearish direction, with increasing pressure from the strength of the dollar even if the price seems muted for yesterday and today. Pushing for a breakout below the current support area around the 1.0500 region. The next levels to watch for are 1.0400, followed by 1.0200.







Resistance 3





Resistance 2





Resistance 1





Support 1





Support 2





Support 3





1.0700




1.0650




1.0600




1.0500




1.0400




1.0200

1696412901789.png

The GBP/USD Pair Remains Within a Narrow Range
The GBP/USD pair remains within a narrow range close to its lowest level since March, with several factors influencing its movement. The US Dollar (USD) is near a 10-month high due to expectations of more Fed rate hikes and rising US bond yields, making it a headwind for the GBP/USD pair. The Federal Reserve's hawkish stance, supported by several Fed officials advocating for at least one more rate hike by year-end, contributes to this USD strength. Additionally, strong economic data, such as the JOLTS report showing a surge in job openings, raises concerns about wage inflation and pushes US government bond yields higher.
The US fixed-income market's ongoing selloff also dampens investor appetite for riskier assets, further benefiting the USD. On the other hand, the Bank of England's surprising decision to keep rates unchanged in September continues to weigh on the British Pound (GBP), limiting any potential gains for the GBP/USD pair.
GBP/USD continues to experience selling pressure, finding support at the 1.2100 level. The bearish outlook persists and could potentially drive the price towards the historical level of 1.1800, a level not seen since March 23 of this year. The prices from yesterday and today show a neutral movement waiting for data.







Resistance 3





Resistance 2





Resistance 1





Support 1





Support 2





Support 3





1.2400




1.2290




1.2200




1.2110




1.2000




1.1900

1696412901808.png

Surge in Japanese and US Bond Yields Spurs USD/JPY Volatility and BOJ Speculations
On Wednesday, the 10-year Japanese Government Bond (JGB) yield reached 0.8%, its highest level since 2013. This has increased pressure on the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to manage its yield-curve cap and consider ending its negative interest rate policy. Concurrently, the US Treasury yield has risen alongside the strengthening US Dollar (USD), with the 10-year yield reaching 4.865%, its highest point since 2007.
Late Tuesday, the USD/JPY pair experienced a sharp decline of nearly 300 pips from the 150.00 level due to rumors of FX intervention by Japanese authorities. However, Japan's top currency diplomat, Masato Kanda, clarified on Wednesday that any intervention would target volatility rather than specific forex levels. He also noted that it's standard for authorities not to confirm whether they have intervened or not.
In other economic news, the number of job openings for August stood at 9.6 million, up from the previous revised figure of 8.9 million, according to the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) on Tuesday.
Additionally, speculations about Japanese authorities intervening in the FX market continue to capture traders' attention. The upcoming US Nonfarm Payrolls data on Friday will also be closely watched by traders for potential trading opportunities in the USD/JPY pair.
USDJPY volatility increased after touching the 15.00 level as expected and a movement of 300 pips was seen. The market will continue observing any possibility of BOJ intervention. 146.5 is the next support for the pair.







Resistance 3





Resistance 2





Resistance 1





Support 1





Support 2





Support 3





155.00




152.70




151.50




148.00




146.50




146.00
1696412901826.png

Gold Remains Under Pressure as Fed Hawkishness and Strong Dollar Persist
Gold (XAU/USD) continues to struggle and remains near a seven-month low due to several factors. The hawkish outlook from the Federal Reserve, rising US bond yields, and a strong US Dollar (USD) have all contributed to the metal's decline over the past two weeks. Investors are closely watching upcoming US economic reports, including the ADP report and ISM Services PMI, for potential trading opportunities, with a keen eye on the US NFP report on Friday.
Recent comments from Fed officials support the expectation of at least one more interest rate hike this year to combat inflation. The August JOLTS report revealed a significant increase in job openings, adding to concerns about wage inflation and the need for the Fed to continue tightening its monetary policy.
The persistent inflationary pressures might lead the Fed to maintain its hawkish stance and raise rates at its next meeting in November. This, along with political turmoil and looming recession risks, has created a risk-off environment that typically benefits safe-haven assets like gold.
Gold found support around the 1920 level where the down parallel of the down channel. A possible rebound may accrue after 7 consecutive losing days. The next resistance will be at the 1860 level.







Resistance 3





Resistance 2





Resistance 1





Support 1





Support 2





Support 3





1971




1960




1825




1800




1760




1725
 

Attachments

  • 1696412901726.png
    1696412901726.png
    38.6 KB · Views: 1
  • 1696412901740.png
    1696412901740.png
    23.7 KB · Views: 1
A graph with lines and numbersDescription automatically generated with medium confidence


EURUSD

The US Dollar Remains Strong with Positive Data and Cautious Market Sentiment
The US Dollar remains strong, supported by positive US data and cautious market sentiment. The EUR/USD pair hit multi-month lows due to the stronger US Dollar, buoyed by strong US labor market data. The Eurozone will report wholesale inflation and retail sales data, while the US awaits ADP employment figures.
The US JOLTS Job Opening report surpassed expectations, pushing the 10-year Treasury bond yield to 4.80%, reflecting a strong economy. More job data is expected in the coming days, which could further boost the dollar's rally.
The US Dollar's strength is also fueled by market expectations of prolonged higher interest rates from the Federal Reserve and deteriorating market sentiment.
Eurozone data to be released includes the Producer Price Index, Retail Sales, and final HICP PMIs for August. Market participants believe the European Central Bank has reached its terminal rate.
In the Eurozone, the unemployment rate dropped as expected from 6.5% to 6.4% in August. The final reading of the Manufacturing PMI for the region remained at 43.4. No significant Eurozone data is expected on Tuesday.
EUR/USD is still in the bearish direction, with increasing pressure from the strength of the dollar even if the price seems muted for yesterday and today. Pushing for a breakout below the current support area around the 1.0500 region. The next levels to watch for are 1.0400, followed by 1.0200.

Resistance 3 Resistance 2 Resistance 1 Support 1 Support 2 Support 3
1.0700 1.0650 1.0600 1.0500 1.0400 1.0200

1696413519969.png
GBPUSD
The GBP/USD Pair Remains Within a Narrow Range
The GBP/USD pair remains within a narrow range close to its lowest level since March, with several factors influencing its movement. The US Dollar (USD) is near a 10-month high due to expectations of more Fed rate hikes and rising US bond yields, making it a headwind for the GBP/USD pair. The Federal Reserve's hawkish stance, supported by several Fed officials advocating for at least one more rate hike by year-end, contributes to this USD strength. Additionally, strong economic data, such as the JOLTS report showing a surge in job openings, raises concerns about wage inflation and pushes US government bond yields higher.
The US fixed-income market's ongoing selloff also dampens investor appetite for riskier assets, further benefiting the USD. On the other hand, the Bank of England's surprising decision to keep rates unchanged in September continues to weigh on the British Pound (GBP), limiting any potential gains for the GBP/USD pair.
GBP/USD continues to experience selling pressure, finding support at the 1.2100 level. The bearish outlook persists and could potentially drive the price towards the historical level of 1.1800, a level not seen since March 23 of this year. The prices from yesterday and today show a neutral movement waiting for data.

Resistance 3 Resistance 2 Resistance 1 Support 1 Support 2 Support 3
1.2400 1.2290 1.2200 1.2110 1.2000 1.1900

1696413519987.png
USDJPY
Surge in Japanese and US Bond Yields Spurs USD/JPY Volatility and BOJ Speculations
On Wednesday, the 10-year Japanese Government Bond (JGB) yield reached 0.8%, its highest level since 2013. This has increased pressure on the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to manage its yield-curve cap and consider ending its negative interest rate policy. Concurrently, the US Treasury yield has risen alongside the strengthening US Dollar (USD), with the 10-year yield reaching 4.865%, its highest point since 2007.
Late Tuesday, the USD/JPY pair experienced a sharp decline of nearly 300 pips from the 150.00 level due to rumors of FX intervention by Japanese authorities. However, Japan's top currency diplomat, Masato Kanda, clarified on Wednesday that any intervention would target volatility rather than specific forex levels. He also noted that it's standard for authorities not to confirm whether they have intervened or not.
In other economic news, the number of job openings for August stood at 9.6 million, up from the previous revised figure of 8.9 million, according to the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) on Tuesday.
Additionally, speculations about Japanese authorities intervening in the FX market continue to capture traders' attention. The upcoming US Nonfarm Payrolls data on Friday will also be closely watched by traders for potential trading opportunities in the USD/JPY pair.
USDJPY volatility increased after touching the 15.00 level as expected and a movement of 300 pips was seen. The market will continue observing any possibility of BOJ intervention. 146.5 is the next support for the pair.

Resistance 3 Resistance 2 Resistance 1 Support 1 Support 2 Support 3
155.00 152.70 151.50 148.00 146.50 146.00
1696413520004.png

Gold Remains Under Pressure as Fed Hawkishness and Strong Dollar Persist
Gold (XAU/USD) continues to struggle and remains near a seven-month low due to several factors. The hawkish outlook from the Federal Reserve, rising US bond yields, and a strong US Dollar (USD) have all contributed to the metal's decline over the past two weeks. Investors are closely watching upcoming US economic reports, including the ADP report and ISM Services PMI, for potential trading opportunities, with a keen eye on the US NFP report on Friday.
Recent comments from Fed officials support the expectation of at least one more interest rate hike this year to combat inflation. The August JOLTS report revealed a significant increase in job openings, adding to concerns about wage inflation and the need for the Fed to continue tightening its monetary policy.
The persistent inflationary pressures might lead the Fed to maintain its hawkish stance and raise rates at its next meeting in November. This, along with political turmoil and looming recession risks, has created a risk-off environment that typically benefits safe-haven assets like gold.
Gold found support around the 1920 level where the down parallel of the down channel. A possible rebound may accrue after 7 consecutive losing days. The next resistance will be at the 1860 level.

Resistance 3 Resistance 2 Resistance 1 Support 1 Support 2 Support 3
1971 1960 1825 1800 1760 1725
 

Attachments

  • 1696413519932.png
    1696413519932.png
    22.4 KB · Views: 0
  • 1696413519920.png
    1696413519920.png
    23.7 KB · Views: 0
  • 1696413519906.png
    1696413519906.png
    38.6 KB · Views: 1
1696503766230.png
EURUSD

Euro Maintains 1.05 Level Following Dollar Correction
The euro is attempting to maintain the 1.05 level amid a mild correction phase following recent pressures. Yesterday's labor data, a precursor to the upcoming new jobs data, showed a significant pullback, acting as a catalyst and curbing the US dollar's strong momentum.
Meanwhile, US debt securities saw a slight decline in yields, but this isn't sufficient to trigger a significant shift in the current environment. President Lagarde's recent speech reiterated the importance of keeping key interest rates at their current levels to achieve the European Central Bank's inflation targets.
In the near future, we are not anticipating any major developments from the European Central Bank, as attention has shifted to the Federal Reserve's intentions. The exchange rate remains sensitive to the Fed's reasoning.
Today's focus remains on tomorrow's announcement of US unemployment and new jobs data, which traditionally generates intense volatility and can alter the exchange rate picture significantly if there are surprises.
Additionally, the market keeps a close eye on US weekly initial job claims, especially during the afternoon.
The recent strengthening of the dollar, driven by the divergent pace of the US economy, high US government debt yields, and international stock market turmoil, experienced a minor correction, as anticipated.
EUR/USD keeps the bearish outlook, and the actual correction is still limited and doesn’t confirm any reversal. Pushing for a breakout below the current support area around the 1.0500 region. The next levels to watch for are 1.0400, followed by 1.0200, and if a reversal is confirmed, the next resistance area will be at 1.0600.

Resistance 3 Resistance 2 Resistance 1 Support 1 Support 2 Support 3
1.0700 1.0650 1.0600 1.0500 1.0400 1.0200

1696503766249.png

Sterling's Recovery Halted by UK Economic Challenges
The British Pound (GBP) has been on the road to recovery thanks to increased demand for assets with higher risk, but its ability to strengthen further is limited. This limitation is due to the impending slowdown in the United Kingdom's economy, which is being impacted by factors such as fragile economic activities, potential inflationary shocks, and weakening demand.
Even though there has been an improvement in the UK Services PMI, economic data still indicates a contraction as it remains below the critical 50.0 threshold. The UK economy is struggling to mitigate the effects of rising interest rates by the Bank of England (BoE), increasing oil prices, and supply chain disruptions stemming from the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
GBP/USD is struggling to make a comeback as the dollar weakness is helping but the outlook is still bearish. The bearish outlook persists and could potentially drive the price towards the historical level of 1.1800, a level not seen since March 23 of this year. The price from yesterday and today shows a neutral movement waiting for data.


Resistance 3 Resistance 2 Resistance 1 Support 1 Support 2 Support 3
1.2400 1.2290 1.2200 1.2110 1.2000 1.1900

1696503766268.png

USD/JPY Faces Selling Pressure Amidst Speculation and Economic Data
The USD/JPY pair faced selling pressure and dropped below 148.00 during the Asian session, marking the second negative move in three days. Speculation about Japanese authorities intervening in the FX market and the practice of Gotobi payments contributed to this decline. The US Dollar retreated from an 11-month high and added to the downward pressure on USD/JPY due to disappointing US ADP data and a moderation in the US services sector, raising doubts about further Fed rate hikes. However, some caution is advised as Fed officials have supported further policy tightening, and markets expect higher rates, potentially supporting US bond yields and the Greenback. Investors are also awaiting the release of the NFP report on Friday. Weekly Initial Jobless Claims data and US bond yields may provide short-term trading opportunities.
USDJPY volatility increased after the touching the 15.00 level as expected and a movement of 300 pips was seen. The market will continue observing any possibility of BOJ intervention. 146.5 is the next support for the pair.

Resistance 3 Resistance 2 Resistance 1 Support 1 Support 2 Support 3
155.00 152.70 151.50 148.00 146.50 146.00
1696503766284.png

Gold Price Waits for Clarity
Gold price struggles to gain momentum despite a weaker USD and lower US bond yields. Traders remain cautious ahead of the US NFP report on Friday.
The price of gold (XAU/USD) made a slight recovery attempt during the early European session but faced resistance near $1,830. This modest uptick followed a decline in 10-year US Treasury bond yields from a 16-year high, which led to a USD pullback. However, traders are hesitant to go bullish as they await clarity on the Federal Reserve's next move.
Recent economic reports have indicated a cooling US labor market and a moderation in the services sector, which may influence the Fed's rate hike decisions. Still, solid economic growth expectations for Q3 and comments from Fed officials hinting at further policy tightening have kept US bond yields elevated. This has limited the USD's decline and, consequently, capped gold's upside potential.
Traders are also staying on the sidelines ahead of the US NFP report on Friday, which will impact Fed rate hike expectations and USD demand. Additionally, the US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims data will be monitored for short-term opportunities later on Thursday.
From a technical standpoint, gold has been hovering around the 1820 area for the second day, awaiting direction that seems like it will not come until tomorrow after the NFP data. Additionally, a further selloff of the dollar and a rebound in yields could provide support.

Resistance 3 Resistance 2 Resistance 1 Support 1 Support 2 Support 3
1971 1960 1825 1800 1760 1725
 

Attachments

  • 1696503766188.png
    1696503766188.png
    38.6 KB · Views: 1
  • 1696503766213.png
    1696503766213.png
    22.4 KB · Views: 0
  • 1696503766201.png
    1696503766201.png
    23.7 KB · Views: 1
1696583800602.png
EURUSD

The Focus on US Nonfarm Payrolls: September Expectations and Market Impact
US Nonfarm Payrolls for September are expected to increase by 170K, slightly lower than July's 187K. This data release is significant for the US economy and financial markets. It's anticipated to bring increased volatility to the US Dollar, especially when combined with Average Hourly Earnings data. The Unemployment Rate is also projected to dip slightly to 3.7% in September.
The recent unexpected rise in US job openings to 9.610 million in August has reinforced expectations of a Fed interest rate hike this quarter, reflecting a tight labor market. This supports the notion of the Fed continuing to tighten monetary policy.
Following the September policy meeting, some Fed policymakers endorsed the idea of "higher rates for longer" due to the US economy's resilience. This led to the US Dollar Index hitting an 11-month high above 107.00 and US Treasury bond yields nearing 16-year highs.
However, the odds of a November Fed rate hike decreased from 31% to 23% following disappointing US labor market data, resulting in a correction in the US Dollar and bond yields.
Nonfarm Payrolls play a pivotal role in the US jobs report, influencing Federal Reserve policy decisions by assessing progress towards full employment and 2% inflation. These figures tend to correlate positively with the US Dollar and have a negative correlation with gold prices due to the impact on interest rates and the strength of the USD. Nevertheless, market reactions can be unpredictable, influenced by other components of the jobs report in exceptional circumstances like major economic crises.
EUR/USD is currently in an accumulation phase, possibly awaiting a rebound today. If a reversal is confirmed, the next resistance area will be at 1.0600. In the event of a breakdown, the next support level will be at 1.0400.

Resistance 3 Resistance 2 Resistance 1 Support 1 Support 2 Support 3
1.0700 1.0650 1.0600 1.0500 1.0400 1.0200

1696583800622.png
GBPUSD

The Pound's Challenge During Economic Uncertainty
The Pound Sterling (GBP) is facing challenges as it hovers around 1.2196 due to uncertainty regarding the UK's economic outlook. September's PMI data indicated vulnerabilities in the UK economy, with firms hesitating to use their full capacity and reducing hiring due to higher interest rates imposed by the Bank of England (BoE), which have dampened demand.
Investors are not expecting a swift recovery in UK demand as the BoE plans to maintain higher interest rates for an extended period to ensure price stability. BoE Deputy Governor Ben Broadbent predicts that inflation will decrease to 2% within two years, as the restrictive monetary policy has negatively affected the labor market and economic prospects.
GBP/USD is experiencing a similar price accumulation, with direction pending confirmation from NFP data. The next resistance level to watch is at 1.2300, and the support level is at 1.0050.


Resistance 3 Resistance 2 Resistance 1 Support 1 Support 2 Support 3
1.2400 1.2300 1.2200 1.2110 1.2000 1.1900

1696583800638.png
USDJPY

USD/JPY Trading Higher with the Speculation on BoJ Policy Shift
USD/JPY is trading higher at 148.90, supported by a rebound in the US Dollar and improved US Treasury yields.
Former Fed Vice Chair Clarida anticipates the Bank of Japan (BoJ) adjusting its policy rate to 0% by early 2024, signaling a shift in the BoJ's approach under new leadership. Speculation about Japanese intervention in the foreign exchange market could continue to affect USD/JPY.
BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda emphasizes the stimulative impact of the current policy framework.
US Treasury yields remain near multi-year highs, with the 10-year yield above 4.70%, amid caution due to the Fed's hawkish stance on interest rates. US Initial Jobless Claims rise to 207K, slightly surpassing expectations. US Challenger Job Cuts decreased significantly to 47.457K in September.
Upcoming US Nonfarm Payrolls and Average Hourly Earnings data may impact the USD and bond market volatility.
USDJPY continues hovering around the 150.00 area with a small correction. The pair wait for direction from today's data or an intervention from BOJ to help. The next support level is at 146.80 followed by 144.80.

Resistance 3 Resistance 2 Resistance 1 Support 1 Support 2 Support 3
155.00 152.70 151.50 148.00 146.50 146.00
1696583800662.png
GOLD

Gold Prices Consolidate Ahead of US Nonfarm Payrolls Report
Gold prices struggled to gain traction as they reached $1,825 on Friday, facing headwinds from expectations of more Fed rate hikes in 2023, rising US bond yields, and a strong USD. Traders are eagerly awaiting the release of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, which will likely provide a new direction for gold.
The NFP report is crucial for shaping expectations about the Fed's future rate-hike decisions. The Fed's hawkish stance, supported by robust US economic data, continues to push US bond yields higher, which, in turn, bolsters the US Dollar and limits gold's gains.
Market participants believe the Fed will maintain its hawkish stance due to strong economic data. If the NFP report shows further job growth, it could lead to higher wages and inflation, potentially prompting the Fed to keep rates elevated. This scenario would favor the USD and weigh on gold prices.
From a technical standpoint, the gold price action appears subdued, as it is consolidating in preparation for a potential reversal after reaching a significant historical level. The next resistance level is at 1860-50.


Resistance 3 Resistance 2 Resistance 1 Support 1 Support 2 Support 3
1971 1960 1825 1800 1760 1725
 

Attachments

  • 1696583800574.png
    1696583800574.png
    23.7 KB · Views: 1
  • 1696583800558.png
    1696583800558.png
    38.6 KB · Views: 1
  • 1696583800585.png
    1696583800585.png
    22.4 KB · Views: 0
1696851228923.png

EUR/USD Weakens with USD Strength and Central Bank Speculations
The euro weakened against the US Dollar, with EUR/USD dropping to around 1.0530 after three consecutive sessions of gains. This comes as the USD Index (DXY) regained strength, reaching 106.30 due to global risk-off sentiment at the start of the week.
Investors anticipate that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will maintain current interest rates for the rest of the year, while there is speculation about the European Central Bank (ECB) pausing its policy despite inflation surpassing its target and concerns about a potential recession or stagflation in Europe.
In Germany, Industrial Production contracted by 0.2% in August.
The euro's recent weakness is attributed to several factors, including the expectation of central bank actions and economic data. Strong economic data and a positive Trade Balance can boost the euro, while weak data can lead to its decline.
EUR/USD is currently in an accumulation phase, possibly awaiting a rebound. If a reversal is confirmed, the next resistance area will be at 1.0600. In the event of a breakdown, the next support level will be at 1.0400.

Resistance 3 Resistance 2 Resistance 1 Support 1 Support 2 Support 3
1.0700 1.0650 1.0600 1.0500 1.0400 1.0200

1696851228946.png

GBP/USD Faces Sell-Off Due to Israel-Hamas Conflict
The Pound Sterling (GBP) faced a sell-off due to the Israel-Hamas conflict, causing a drop in the GBP/USD pair. The Federal Reserve's expected interest rate hike and the Bank of England's reluctance to change interest rates to avoid a UK recession added to the negative sentiment.
The UK's economic prospects are weakening as inflation remains high, leading to reduced demand and labor demand. The Bank of England plans to maintain high-interest rates until inflation reaches 2%, contributing to the vulnerability of the situation.
In addition to the Israel-Hamas conflict, the global market mood has been downbeat.
Higher interest rates have negatively affected the UK's Manufacturing and Construction PMI, with the Construction PMI falling to 45.0 in September. Investors are also keeping an eye on the UK's Financial Policy Committee (FPC) meeting minutes and factor activity data for August.
GBP/USD is experiencing a similar price accumulation as the dollar will be dictating direction. The next resistance level to watch is at 1.2300, and the support level is at 1.0050.

Resistance 3 Resistance 2 Resistance 1 Support 1 Support 2 Support 3
1.2400 1.2300 1.2200 1.2110 1.2000 1.1900

1696851228966.png

USD/JPY Faces Challenges with Geopolitical Tensions
The USD/JPY pair had a challenging start to the week, opening with a bearish gap and struggling to maintain positive momentum. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East favored the Japanese Yen (JPY), putting downward pressure on the pair. The US Dollar (USD) also underperformed, failing to provide support due to concerns about potential intervention.
Over the weekend, conflict escalated in the Middle East as Hamas initiated attacks on Israeli towns, leading to Israeli airstrikes and a declaration of war against Gaza. This negatively impacted global risk sentiment, causing investors to seek refuge in the JPY. The USD's lackluster performance further contributed to the USD/JPY's difficulties.
Although the US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) data for September showed strong job growth, wage growth remained moderate, which eased inflation concerns and limited enthusiasm for the USD against the JPY. Traders awaited the release of the FOMC monetary policy meeting minutes and US consumer inflation figures later in the week.
Speculation about Japanese intervention in the foreign exchange market to support the JPY acted as a ceiling on USD/JPY gains. While there were suggestions of possible intervention, some believed it unlikely given current economic fundamentals.
Given this mixed backdrop, caution was advised for traders, as the USD/JPY pair could remain in a consolidative phase in the absence of significant market-moving economic data on Monday.
USDJPY continues hovering around the 150.00 area with a minor correction. The next support level is at 146.80, followed by 144.80.

Resistance 3 Resistance 2 Resistance 1 Support 1 Support 2 Support 3
155.00 152.70 151.50 148.00 146.50 146.00
1696851228981.png

Gold Prices Rally to $1,850
Gold prices have surged to around $1,850 per troy ounce, primarily due to increasing geopolitical tensions, notably the ongoing Palestine-Israel conflict. Investors turn to gold during such uncertainties. The US Dollar Index (DXY) has rebounded to 106.20, thanks to robust US Nonfarm Payrolls data, revealing a significant job increase of 336,000 in September, although Average Hourly Earnings slightly fell short of expectations at 0.2%, with an annual decrease of 4.2%.
US Treasury yields have risen, reaching 4.80%, reflecting expectations of prolonged higher interest rates by the Federal Reserve, nearing levels not seen since 2007.
Investors focus shifts to the upcoming International Monetary Fund (IMF) meeting, where strategies for stabilizing exchange rates and promoting development will be discussed. Additionally, the US Core Producer Price Index, expected later in the week, will provide crucial insights into inflation trends and the US economic landscape. These factors collectively shape the current global economic landscape, impacting various financial markets.
From a technical standpoint, gold worked as a safe haven and reached the 1850 area. The next resistance will be at the 1875 level while support will always be at 1810.

Resistance 3 Resistance 2 Resistance 1 Support 1 Support 2 Support 3
1985 1975 1850 18100 1760 1725
.
 

Attachments

  • 1696851228893.png
    1696851228893.png
    23.7 KB · Views: 0
  • 1696851228905.png
    1696851228905.png
    22.4 KB · Views: 0
  • 1696851228880.png
    1696851228880.png
    38.6 KB · Views: 1
The Palestinian-Israeli War Had a Significant Impact on Global Financial Markets, Causing Them to Experience Turbulence And Uncertainty

Yesterday, the macroeconomic calendar in the market remained calm. However, the statements made by Federal Reserve (Fed) authorities Logan, Barr, and Jefferson were carefully monitored. Fed official Logan's comments on the rising bond yields attracted significant attention. Logan pointed out that the increasing U.S. bond yields might facilitate the process of tightening monetary policy, potentially eliminating the need for additional interest rate hikes by the Fed. Furthermore, Logan emphasized the current high levels of inflation, underscoring the influence of a robust labor market on inflation dynamics. He suggested that to reach the Fed's 2% inflation target, it is compulsory to maintain a course of tightening policies.

On the other hand, on Saturday, Hamas forces launched a surprise attack from the Gaza Strip into southern Israel, resulting in over 700 Israeli casualties, predominantly civilians. Around 260 people attending a music festival near Gaza's northern border were killed by Hamas militants. In retaliation, approximately 400 Palestinians lost their lives in Israeli counterattacks. Israel reclaimed control of areas previously held by Hamas and recaptured numerous territories. A protracted military operation in Gaza, potentially lasting for months, is anticipated.

Following the rise in tension in the Middle East, oil prices rose by up to 5%, and gained some of last week's losses. With the war risk returning to the markets, the barrel price of WTI crude oil exceeded 86 dollars. The price of Brent crude oil increased by 4% and found buyers at $88.30. It is worth reminding that Brent and WTI lost value last week due to the slowdown in global growth and the expectation of higher interest rates. Additionally, the yellow metal (gold), reacting with an increase to the possible war news, regained last week's losses and closed Monday at 1961 levels per ounce.

Today, in the U.S., the NFIB small business optimism data will be followed. It should be remembered that the August data was at 91.3 with a monthly decrease of 0.6 points.

eurusd 10.png


EURUSD Responds to Dollar Index and Yields

Attention is still focused on the Middle East. Thus, the Dollar Index (DXY) had a positive start to the week. In other words, the Palestinian-Israeli war is affecting market sentiment.

Yesterday, the euro touched the lowest level of 1.0550 due to the recovery in the DXY. However, as the market stabilized and U.S. yields kept falling, the momentum turned in EUR’s favor and closed the day 1.0566 level.

Today, the parity is hovering around the 1.0562 level. On the upside, the parity could encounter resistance at the 1.0600 level. If that level is broken, we will follow 1.0650 as a firmer resistance.

If it moves downward, If the level is decisively broken, it could push the pair down to around 1.0500, and then possibly to 1.0450, which is close to last week's low at 1.0448.

Resistance 3Resistance 2Resistance 1Support 1Support 2Support 3
1.07001.06501.06001.05001.04501.0380


gbpusd10.png


Sterling Holds Steady Around 1.2200 with Limited DXY Demand

The British pound has maintained relative stability, hovering around the mid-1.2200 level. This stability can be attributed to a lack of significant demand for the US Dollar Index (DXY). In the previous trading session, the GBP exhibited a more confined trading range, fluctuating between 1.2166 and 1.2245. Notably, there seems to be a subtle upward momentum in play, albeit with a degree of caution.

Looking ahead to today's trading session, there is a possibility that the GBP may surpass the 1.2270 mark and potentially reach levels around 1.2305. However, it is less likely to breach the significant resistance point at 1.2350. For traders and investors, it's essential to keep an eye on the support levels, which currently stand at 1.2170, followed by 1.2105. These levels may provide guidance in assessing potential price movements and trading strategies in the ongoing forex market.


Resistance 3Resistance 2Resistance 1Support 1Support 2Support 3
1.23501.23051.22701.21701.21051.2040


usdjpy 10.png


USD/JPY Pair Grapples with Volatility: Testing 150 Levels and Beyond


When the ultra-expansionary monetary policies of the Bank of Japan were added to the Fed interest rate, which was the highest in 22 years, the USD/JPY pair rose to 150 levels. The fear that the Central Bank of Japan would intervene, reduced the parity from 150 levels to 147.30 levels last week. Trying to regain its losses during the week, JPY closed last week at 149.20.

The pair experienced a decline on Monday, closing the day at 148.5 levels, because of the war-related news impacting the markets during the weekend. Even though the EUR and GBP depreciated following the war news, the strengthening of the JPY emphasized its status as a safe-haven currency in the market.

Still, the pair remains within a trading range possible between 147.05 and 150.15.

Resistance 3Resistance 2Resistance 1Support 1Support 2Support 3
150.15149.55149.20148.20147.50147.05


Gold's Rally Following Middle East Conflict: Will It Sustain Momentum?

Gold's value has been on the decline for an extended period due to the persistently high-interest rates. The September Fed meeting, seen as 'hawkish' by the markets, triggered a swift drop in gold prices. Since September 25, gold had been consistently decreasing, but it found support at the 1810 level.

However, the recent Israeli-Palestinian conflict that erupted over the weekend has once again positioned gold as a safe-haven asset. Gold has not only recovered its losses from last week but has also risen to the 1863 level. Even with the war news, the U.S. 10-year bond interest rate index remains at its highest point in the last 16 years, despite some fluctuations.

Technically, a break of the 1883 (21-day moving average) level will increase the buyer appetite and the next resistance we follow at $1903 (50-day moving average). On the downside, the initial support can be found at yesterday's low of $1845, followed by the $1833 level, which would fill the gap.



Resistance 3Resistance 2Resistance 1Support 1Support 2Support 3
1903
1883
1878
1845
1832
1824
 
A graph of stock marketDescription automatically generated

EUR/USD Gains Ground as Dollar Weakens
EURUSD continues to rise as the Dollar Index (DXY) weakens. The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to pause the interest rate tightening cycle. Also, DXY is losing momentum due to the multiple dovish statements from Fed officials.
Today, the parity is hovering around the 1.06053 level (21-daily moving average). On the upside, the parity could encounter resistance at the 1.0630 level. If that level is broken, we will follow 1.0690 as a firmer resistance.
If it moves downward, If the level is decisively broken, it could push the pair down to around 1.0540, and then possibly to 1.0500, which is the psychological level.


Resistance 3 Resistance 2 Resistance 1 Support 1 Support 2 Support 3
1.0740 1.0690 1.0630 1.0540 1.0500 1.0450



A graph with lines and pointsDescription automatically generated with medium confidence


Pound Holds Near 1.2300 as Dollar Weakens Due to Falling Bond Yields
The pound is maintaining its gains just below 1.2300, after stepping back from a nearly three-week high of 1.2304 level. The DXY is weakened by declining bond yields and a positive market sentiment, which is helping the pair. Traders are now keeping an eye on the US PPI data and the release of FOMC meeting minutes for potential market-moving cues.
Today, there's a possibility that the GBP could surpass 1.2330 and test the 1.2365 level, but it's unlikely to reach the major resistance at 1.2425. Support levels are at 1.2200 and then 1.2175.


Resistance 3 Resistance 2 Resistance 1 Support 1 Support 2 Support 3
1.2425 1.2365 1.2330 1.2200 1.2175 1.2140


1697014137341.png

USD/JPY Rebounds as Market Sentiment Improves
USD/JPY is going up for two days in a row, trading around 148.80 on Wednesday in Asia. This is because the pair rebounded in the previous session, influenced by positive market sentiment related to the Middle East conflict.
The pair is hovering around the 148.85 level and still 148.45 level (21-daily simple moving average) could act as a support. If that level is broken, we are following yesterday’s low level at 148.15. On the upside, the 149.00/20 region is still working as a resistance, next 149.55 level.
Traders should be aware that in the past, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) has shown interest in the USD/JPY exchange rate when it approaches the significant level of 150.00. The BoJ has used this level as a potential trigger for foreign exchange market interventions to safeguard the value of the yen.

Resistance 3 Resistance 2 Resistance 1 Support 1 Support 2 Support 3
150.15 149.55 149.10 148.45 148.15 147.30

A graph with lines and pointsDescription automatically generated with medium confidence
Gold Rises as Fed Rate Hike Expectations Diminish
The recent more cautious stance taken by US Federal Reserve (Fed) officials has led traders to reduce their expectations for an additional interest rate hike by the most influential central bank in the world before the end of the year. The likelihood of a Fed rate increase in November is now just 13%. Thus, gold continues to rise today and is hovering around the $1865 level.
Now, gold price is so close to overbought condition in terms of the RSI indicator, but the bullish momentum will continue ahead of the US PPI and Fed minutes. Technically, a break of the 1881 (21-day simple moving average) level will increase the buyer appetite and the next resistance we follow at $1902 (50-day simple moving average). On the downwards, yesterday’s low level of $1853 will be the first support, the next $1845.

Resistance 3 Resistance 2 Resistance 1 Support 1 Support 2 Support 3
1902 1881 1872 1853 1845 1833
 

Attachments

  • 1697014137289.png
    1697014137289.png
    27 KB · Views: 1
  • 1697014137278.png
    1697014137278.png
    19.2 KB · Views: 1
  • 1697014137264.png
    1697014137264.png
    14.7 KB · Views: 1
1697102388067.png

Euro Trades Stably Near 1.06 Awaiting US Consumer Inflation Data
The euro is currently striving to stay above 1.06, exhibiting stability in a tight trading range while awaiting vital US Consumer Inflation updates. The Federal Reserve's recent meeting minutes didn't bring any surprises, leaving uncertainty about the possibility of a 25-point rate hike. As expected, the currency pair remained directionless near 1.06, aligning with previous predictions of consolidation after a dip to 1.0448.
Although the euro made modest gains, the technical outlook suggests a substantial uptrend is challenging without new macroeconomic data. Today's US inflation report is crucial, potentially introducing significant volatility. The economic agenda also includes US weekly initial jobless claims, closely watched for their impact on the economy.
Given these impending announcements, a cautious approach is advisable, and maintaining long euro positions may not be prudent in this uncertain environment.
EUR/USD is currently in an accumulation phase waiting for a possible reversal. If a reversal is confirmed, the next resistance area will be at 1.0750 while the next support level will be at 1.0500.

Resistance 3 Resistance 2 Resistance 1 Support 1 Support 2 Support 3
1.0830 1.0750 1.0650 1.0500 1.0400 1.0200

1697102388083.png

Pound Maintains Bullish Stance Amid Weak UK Factory Data
The Pound Sterling (GBP) continues to hold its ground in spite of weak UK factory data for August. The GBP/USD pair remains bullish despite the Office for National Statistics (ONS) reporting that UK factory data contracted for the second consecutive month. This contraction was driven by UK firms operating at reduced capacity to enhance efficiency, which involved cutting inventory backlogs and labor forces due to declining demand.
This slowdown in demand and overall output poses concerns for Bank of England (BoE) policymakers as they prepare for the upcoming interest rate decision in November. While some, like BoE's Katherine Mann, lean towards tightening policy to curb inflation and bring it down to 2%, Swati Dhingra from the central bank supports a rate cut if the growth rate falls beyond expectations.
Concerns about potential inflation rebounds persist due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which could keep the oil market tight until 2024. Additionally, the UK faces energy shortages due to supply chain disruptions, which could exacerbate headline inflation and challenge the government's commitment to halve it to 5.2%.
GBP/USD continued its advance toward the 1.2300 target and now the price facing some resistance at that level. A comeback will take the price toward the 1.2200 support level and a breakout up will take the price to the 1.2450 level.

Resistance 3 Resistance 2 Resistance 1 Support 1 Support 2 Support 3
1.2600 1.2450 1.2300 1.2200 1.2100 1.2000

1697102388100.png

Divergent Fed Views Impact USD/JPY as FOMC Minutes Awaited
The USD/JPY pair ended a two-day winning streak, trading around 149.00 in the Asian session, amid concerns over the Federal Reserve's rate-hike plans. Fed Governor Christopher Waller has expressed caution, suggesting that market tightening might suffice without immediate action. In contrast, Fed Governor Michelle Bowman leans toward more rate hikes, citing persistent inflation. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes reveal a divergence in views, emphasizing data-driven decisions.
The US Producer Price Index (PPI) rose in September, exceeding expectations at 2.2%. Attention now turns to the Consumer Price Index (CPI) release, forecasting a potential drop from 3.7% to 3.6%, and the upcoming Jobless Claims report.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) faces challenges around 105.50 due to subdued US Treasury yields. The Japanese Yen (JPY) weakens, as the Bank of Japan (BoJ) maintains an ultra-easy monetary policy, focusing on wage growth and inflation control. BoJ board member Asahi Noguchi supports flexibility under Yield Curve Control (YCC) to balance economic recovery and inflation management amidst rising inflation expectations.
USDJPY continues hovering around the 150.00 area with a small correction. The next support level is at 146.80 followed by the 144.80. A possible reversal is the most awaited scenario.

Resistance 3 Resistance 2 Resistance 1 Support 1 Support 2 Support 3
155.00 152.70 151.50 148.00 146.50 146.00
1697102388127.png

Geopolitical Tensions and Weaker Dollar Propel Gold to Two-Week Highs

The price of gold has rebounded from a seven-month low, reaching a two-week high amid geopolitical tensions, declining bond yields, and a weaker US dollar. The recent surge in gold's value is driven by Middle East conflicts, making it a preferred safe-haven asset, coupled with the depreciation of the US dollar. Falling global bond yields are also supporting the non-yielding precious metal.
The recent recovery has allowed gold to recoup over 30% of its September losses, despite a generally positive tone in equity markets. Speculations about the Federal Reserve nearing the end of its rate-hiking cycle suggest an upward trajectory for gold. However, traders are awaiting the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report later in the North American session to gain fresh insights into the Fed's rate-hike path.
A decrease in US inflationary pressures could solidify expectations of the Fed maintaining its current policies in November, potentially leading to a rate cut in Q2 2024. This scenario could further weaken the US dollar and drive demand for gold. Conversely, a strong CPI report could keep the door open for another Fed rate hike by year-end, causing gold bulls to reconsider their positions.
Gold continues its recovery and tries to break the 1875-80 resistance level going toward the 1900 target. Today's data will dictate the direction.

Resistance 3 Resistance 2 Resistance 1 Support 1 Support 2 Support 3
1920 1900 1880 1875 1855 1830
 

Attachments

  • 1697102388038.png
    1697102388038.png
    23.7 KB · Views: 1
  • 1697102388026.png
    1697102388026.png
    38.6 KB · Views: 0
  • 1697102388050.png
    1697102388050.png
    22.4 KB · Views: 1
US INDICES:

Nasdaq.png


S&P 500 and Nasdaq Futures Gain 0.4% as Inflation Data Awaited

S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures gained nearly 0.4% each.

The consumer price report for September will be released Thursday morning. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones are forecasting a 0.3% month-over-month increase for September and a 3.6% rise from the prior year. Investors believe that the strength of inflation indicated in the report will play a key part in whether the Federal Reserve decides to maintain or raise interest rates at its two-day meeting beginning Oct. 31.

The data comes following a stronger-than-expected producer price index for September.

Atlanta Fed president Raphael Bostic and Boston Fed president Susan Collins will be giving remarks Thursday afternoon, which could give Wall Street more insight into the central bank’s stance.

On a daily basis, a possible descending triangle is forming. The support level is at 14,500, while the resistance level is at 15,300, where the median line of the long bullish channel and the downtrend line coincide. Whether there is a bounce from this level or a breakout will depend on current macroeconomic developments and the pricing of upcoming meetings.


oil.png


USOIL


oil.png

Oil Prices Rise Following Growing Concerns Over Israel-Palestine Conflict

Oil prices are showing a gradual increase on Thursday, driven by concerns highlighted by the IEA regarding heightened market risks due to the escalating Israel-Palestine conflict. Additionally, OPEC producer Saudi Arabia has committed to maintaining market stability, aiming to prevent supply disruptions resulting from the Israel-Palestinian war.

According to the EIA, global oil demand is projected to rise by 3% to 10% from 2022 to 2030 and by 6% to 42% from 2022 to 2050. The most significant growth is anticipated in the scenario of high economic expansion, as outlined in the EIA's report.

Volatility is accelerating in the oil price and direction will be clearer after the geopolitical tensions calm down. 83 as support and 87 as resistance are right now in the price range.


Crypto

crypto.png


Cryptocurrencies Experience Sixth Consecutive Day of Losses as Bitcoin Falls Below $26,750

Bitcoin and various cryptocurrencies faced a sixth consecutive day of losses on Thursday, despite other risk-sensitive assets performing well. This marked a reversal from a recent bullish trend as cryptos returned to their usual trading ranges.

In the past 24 hours, Bitcoin's price dropped by 1.5% to fall below $26,750, reaching its lowest point this month after nearing $28,000 over the weekend.

Returning to the $26,000 range is concerning as Bitcoin had previously stagnated in this zone for over a month due to low volatility and waning investor interest. In late September, there was hope for a bullish streak pushing towards the psychologically important $30,000 level.

Interestingly, Bitcoin's performance has diverged from the stock market, which saw four consecutive days of gains in the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500. Some suggest crypto traders are becoming cautious due to potential conflicts in the Middle East affecting demand for high-risk assets, or it could be that Bitcoin has lost its allure.

The release of U.S. consumer-price index (CPI) data on Thursday may push Bitcoin above $27,000 or anchor it around $26,000, despite recent macroeconomic developments. Hopes of the Federal Reserve not raising interest rates have boosted stocks but had limited impact on cryptocurrencies, which often decline when borrowing costs rise.

Bitcoin continues hovering around the resistance level at the 100 and 200MA on the daily chart at the 28070 level. The price is forming a range indicating uncertainty. 25000 and 28000 are the support resistance of the actual range.
 
Back
Top