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#Economics #USD #analysis
US TreasuryYield curve continued to invert on Tuesday with the spread between the 10- and two-year yields falling to -5 basis points, the lowest level since 2007.
The inversion, where long-term borrowing costs fall below the short-term ones, is widely considered an advance warning of an #impending#recession. Curve inversions have preceded US recessions of the past 50 years.
Some observers thought the curve inversion is not a reliable indicator anymore. Because the #US #bonds are currently yielding more than their #G7 #counterparts. So, the US bonds, particularly at the long end of the curve, tend to attract #overseas demand.
Also, the recession fears appear overblown as the US consumer is still holding up strong and the labor market is holding tight.
The US #ConferenceBoard said on Tuesday that its consumer confidence index (#CCI) slipped to 135.1 this month from a slightly upwardly revised 135.8 in July. However, the survey’s present situation index rose to 177.2, the highest reading since November 2000.
Further, the Conference Board survey’s labor market differential jumped to 39.4 in August from 33.1 in July, indicating a potential drop in the jobless rate.
So, the recession fears appear overblown as the US consumer is still holding up strong and the labor market is holding tight. followme social trading


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[08.29] #analysis #forex #JPY

The #USDJPY pair came under some renewed #selling #pressure on Thursday and eroded a part of the previous session's positive move, back closer to weekly #tops.

The pair continued with its struggle to capitalize on this week's goodish rebound from multi-year lows and gain any strong follow-through traction beyond 200-hour SMA resistance near the 106.20-25 region.

A combination of factors benefitted JPY

As investors turned bleak on the prospect of a trade-war breakthrough any time soon, concerns over the global economic growth continued benefitting the Japanese Yen's safe-haven status and capped the major.

Market worries were evident from the prevalent cautious mood around equity markets, which coupled with the inversion of the US #BondYield curve, kept the US Dollar bulls on the defensive and exerted some pressure.

The Japanese Yen was further supported by the Bank of Japan (#BoJ) board member Suzuki's comments, saying that the economy not showing signs of #recession and that they do not need to #ease further now.

Meanwhile, the #downside seemed limited, at least for the time being, as investors now seemed to refrain from placing any aggressive bets ahead of Thursday's important release of revised US Q2 #GDP growth figures.

So, it will be #prudent to wait for a strong follow-through momentum in either direction before positioning for the pair's near-term trajectory amid the recent escalation in trade tensions between the world's two largest economies. #followme #socialtrading


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#analysisi #forex #GBPUSD
#GBP was expected to weaken yesterday, and break of the solid 1.2150 support was not expected. There was another support at 1.2180. GBP subsequently dipped to 1.2172 during late NY hours before settling on a soft note at 1.2182. The immediate #risk still appears to be tilted to the downside, and for today, a breach of 1.2150 is not ruled out. That said, lackluster momentum suggests the next support at 1.2125 is unlikely to be challenged (this level is followed by solid support at 1.2100). On the upside, only a move above 1.2250 would indicate that the current mild downward pressure has eased (minor resistance is at 1.2225).
#Next 1-3 weeks, #GBP is likely to probe the #top of the expected 1.2150/1.2380 range first. After touching a one-month high of 1.2310 on Tuesday (27 Aug), GBP plummeted on the back #Brexit headlines and came close to the bottom of the expected range at 1.2150 (low of 1.2156). While the positive underlying tone has been dented, we continue to view the current movement as part of a consolidation phase.
So, after yesterday’s price action, GBP would likely trade at a lower range of 1.2100/1.2300 in the coming days. #FOLLOWME #SocialTrading


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Here are the calendar highlights for this week:



01:45 Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Aug)

01:00 JPY Japan Vehicle Sales y/y

03:00 TRY Turkey GDP y/y

07:50 EUR France Manufacturing PMI

07:55 EUR Germany Manufacturing PMI

04:00 EUR Eurozone Manufacturing PMI

08:30 GBP Manufacturing PMI


04:30 AUD RBA Rate Statement

04:30 AUD RBA Interest Rate Decision

07:00 ECB's Nominated President Lagarde speech

13:30 CAD Manufacturing PMI m/m

13:45 USD Markit PMI data (Aug)

14:00 USD ISM Manufacturing PMI (Aug)

21:00 US Fed’s Rosengren (hawk, dissenter) speech


01:30 JPY BoJ's Kataoka speech

01:30 AUD Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (Q2)

08:30 GBP Services PMI

09:00 EUR Eurozone retail sales m/m

11:00 EUR ECB's Lane speech

14:00 CAD Bank of Canada Monetary Policy Report

14:00 CAD Bank of Canada (BOC) Interest Rate Decision

15:15 CAD BoC Press Conference

18:00 USD Fed releases Beige Book


05:45 CHF Q2 GDP q/q

12:15 USD ADP Employment Change (Aug)

13:45 USD Markit Services PMI data (Aug)

14:00 USD ISM Non-Manufacturing Index

14:30 GBP BOE’s Tenreyro speaks in Frankfurt

15:45 CAD BOC Schembri give economic progress report


06:00 EUR Germany Industrial Production m/m

07:30 GBP Halifax House Prices m/m

09:00 EUR Q2 Final GDP q/q

12:30 USD Non-Farm Payroll Report, Unemployment Rate and Wage Data

12:30 CAD Employment Change and Unemployment Rate


16:30 Fed's Chair Powell speech

16:30 SNB's Chairman Jordan speech

The US-China #TradeWar remains tense, as certain tariffs kick in and will start to weigh on the US economy. Continued deterioration with Chinese manufacturing data also has #global #recession concerns on high alert and have markets bracing for the next wave of monetary and fiscal stimulus.

Markets remain firmly focused on the #ECB’s September 12th meeting and September 18th #FOMC decision, but we can’t overlook a plethora of# rate decisions that will likely signal continued additional #RateCuts are coming and stimulus is just around the corner. The #RBA is expected to remain on hold for just one month, while the #BOC and #Riksbank are expected to deliver dovish messages that will see them join the global #RateCutting club.

#GBP #Brexit #BorisJohnson will suspend parliament, commencing between 9th and 12th September (tbc) until the Queen’s speech on 14th October. The move leaves MPs that want to block no-deal with little time to do so and increases the chance of no-deal Brexit. The next week could, therefore, be action-packed and full of surprises. Massive swings in the pound look almost guaranteed, with there being particular vulnerability to the downside if government fails to block no-deal or bring down the government.

#AUD The #RBA meeting on Tuesday could be another one on pause mode, with market pricing only assigning a 10% chance of a 25 bps cut from the current record low of 1%. The last set of employment data was robust, with solid jobs growth and a stable unemployment rate at 5.2%. There is a slight risk of a surprise cut, but more likely we could get a more dovish tone to the statement. Q2 GDP data on Wednesday could spring a positive surprise, with latest estimates suggesting a slight improvement to +0.5% q/q from +0.4%. A dovish statement or a surprise cut would pile additional pressure on an already weak Aussie dollar. It’s fallen vs the US dollar for the past six weeks. Other G-7 Q2 data has been flat to negative, so positive growth could be a boon for AUD.



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EUR analysis #forex # followme social trading

#PMI' Indexes for the services sector have exceeded expectations in almost all countries – and all are showing #growth. The final euro-zone Services PMI for August scored 53.5 points – better than expected and above 50 – reflecting growth.

However, Manufacturing PMIs have published on Monday continued showing contraction with scores below 50. Most worryingly, Germany's industrial sector suffers more than others.

The US #ISM Manufacturing PMI was supposed to be a hint toward Friday's #NonFarm Payrolls. Instead, the drop to 49.1 points – the lowest in three years and reflecting contraction. Fears of a #recession are rising in the world's largest economy – in large part due to the #TradeWar with China.

If the #US is struggling with the world's second-largest economy, #Germany will be under pressure due to falling exports to China. US weakness is not good news for #Europe.,

With the clock ticking down to the all-important #ECB decision on September 12, the #hawks are coming out against restarting the #BondBuying scheme. #MadisMüller, Governor of the Estonian central bank, joined his German colleagues in saying that markets expect too much. A limited stimulus packed from the Frankfurt-based institution has helped push the #euro #higher.

However, the ECB also has its share of doves – first and foremost President Mario Draghi. While Draghi is stepping down in November, the nominee to succeed him, Christine Lagarde – testifying today – is no less dovish. She reiterated the need for accommodative monetary policy.

Also across the Atlantic, the Fed is split. Some members prefer no cut while others would like to slash rates by 50 basis point in on September 18. And also in Washington, the final word belongs to the Chair. Jerome Powell will speak on Friday and will have the most significant impact.

EUR/USD #Technical #Analysis

EUR USD technical analysis September 4 2019

#EURUSD still suffers from downside momentum on the four-hour chart. The Relative Strength Index (#RSI) is above 30 – thus not reflecting oversold conditions anymore. Moreover, the currency pair continues trading below the 50, 100, and 200 Simple Moving Averages.

#Support awaits at 1.0960, which was Friday's low. It is followed by 1.0926 – Tuesday's fresh 2019 trough. Next, we are at levels last seen in 2017. These include the 1.0900, 1.0820, and 1.0780.

#Resistance awaits at the previous 2019 low of 1.1027. Next, 1.1050 provided support last week and now works as resistance. It is followed by 1.1090 and 1.1115.


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The #GBPUSD pair pullback to 1.2240 while heading into the London open on Thursday. Now it is trading at 1.2217.

#GBP recently surged as the UK lawmakers voted to avoid #NoDeal #Brexit and also turning the down the #PM #BorisJohnson’s proposed snap general election. The members of the parliaments (MPs) debated various bills concerning no-deal Brexit and early elections at the House of Commons. These bills will now reach the upper house i.e. the House of Lords for further discussions/amendments, scheduled for Thursday, and return back to the lower chamber prior to getting the Royal Assent. As per the Labour sources cited by The Press Association, the UK government's legislation to stop a no-deal Brexit will be completed by Friday.

With the risk tone remains positive with nearly four basis points (bps) of gains to 1.51% mark of the US 10-year Treasury yield by the press time.

Trade headlines will be the key to determine near-term trade direction of the #GBPUSD pair while August month’s ADP Employment Change, #ISM Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (#PMI) and Factory Orders for July from the #US will decorate the economic calendar.

#Technical Analysis

Traders now watch over 21-day simple moving average (SMA) level of 1.2155 and 1.2100 round-figure during additional pullback whereas 1.2308/10 area including August month high and 50-day SMA and early-July low surrounding 1.2382 could please buyers if prices clear recent high of 1.2261.



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#GBPUSD pair stays firm around 1.2320 after witnessing three consecutive positive daily closings ahead of Friday’s UK session open, due to the receding chances of no-deal Brexit.

The United Kingdom’s (UK) House of Lords is still debating on various Brexit issues to roll them out by Friday evening, to return them to House of Commons that could pass them for Royal Assent. While no significant change is expected in that front, the British Pound (GBP) traders are more inclined to hear from judicial reviews and pleas against the Prime Minister (PM) Boris Johnson’s prorogation to the parliaments.

While the UK’s economic calendar is mostly silent, the #US will offer August month employment data for fresh impulse. Market consensus favors no change in the #UnemploymentRate of 3.7% whereas Average Hourly Earnings might step back from 3.2% to 3.1% on YoY while likely being unchanged to 0.3% on MoM. The headline Nonfarm Payrolls (#NFP) could weaken to 158K from 164K prior.

Additionally, the US #FederalReserve Chairman is scheduled to speak at an event hosted by the Swiss Institute of International Studies, in Zurich, and hence his comments will be closely observed ahead of the blackout period for the Fed policymakers.


Sustained break of the 50-day simple moving average (DMA) requires to be validated by a run-up crossing July 17 low of 1.2382 for further advances, failing to which can recall 1.2200 back to the chart.



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#WeekAhead #forex #news #followme #socialtrading
Here are the data highlights for this week:

14:00 German trade figures and Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence Index
16:00 UK BoE's Vlieghe speech
16:30 UK GDP, manufacturing production and construction output (all monthly figures)

09:30 China Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Aug)
16:30 UK average earnings index
16:30 UK ILO Unemployment Rate (3M) (Jul)

08:30 Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence (Sep)
20:30 US core PPI

Chinese trade figures
14:00 German Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) (Aug)
19:45 Europe ECB rate decision and press conference
20:30 Europe ECB Monetary Policy Statement and Press Conference
20:30 US CPI

20:30 US retail sales
22:00 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (Sep)

#ECB unlikely to re-launch #QE
In this week, the main significant event is Mario Draghi’s last policy meeting as the #ECB President. There have been some suggestions that the #Italian will go out with a bang and announce more quantitative #easing to stimulate the flagging #Eurozone #economy - not least Germany, where incoming data has been truly shocking.
However, with #InterestRates already at zero and having only recently ended their #QE programme, some would argue that the best course of action would be to take no action at all, even if — as Mr Draghi put it in July — the economic outlook is “getting worse and worse.” Indeed, there could be an element of hawkish surprise at this meeting. Several ECB officials have spoken against QE, including Jens Weidmann, Klaas Knot, and Madis Muller in recent days. With this much opposition, Mario Draghi will probably not want to create a mess for his successor to clean up.

US #Inflation before #Fed meeting
With the latest employment figures disappointing expectations following a very poor manufacturing #PMI earlier in the week, this has further cemented speculation over a rate cut by the Fed later this month. Ahead of the September 18 meeting, we will have two more key data releases this week which the Fed might take into account when deciding on interest rates: Consumer Price Index (#CPI) (Thursday) and #RetailSales (Friday).
Unless #CPI is shockingly weak, it is safe to assume the #Fed will only #Cut #Rates by 25 basis points rather than 50. The retail sales may change that view either. Still, it could trigger some movement in the forex and stock markets. After a strong 0.7% m/m increase in spending last month, traders will be watching for any signs of a #slowdown, especially after last month’s tariff escalations.


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09.11 #analysisi #forex #socialtrading

The #EURUSD has been fluctuating between two converging trend-lines over the past one week or so, forming a symmetrical triangle on hourly charts. Wednesday's early uptick quickly ran out of the steam, rather met with some fresh supply near the triangle resistance.

The #intraday #pullback has now dragged the pair back below 100-hour SMA, the intraday bias might have shifted in favor of bearish traders and sets the stage for a move towards testing the triangle support, currently near the 1.1020 region, which is followed by 200-hour EMA.

Due to drifting into the bearish territory on the 1-hourly chart, failure to defend the mentioned support levels might indicate the resumption of the prior/well-established bearish trend.

The pair might then turn vulnerable to slide back towards challenging multi-year swing lows, around the 1.0925 area, before eventually sliding farther below the 1.0900 round figure mark towards testing its next major support near the 1.0835-30 region - levels now seen since May 2017.

On the other hand, the 1.1050 region might continue to attract some fresh #supply, which if cleared decisively should negate any near-term bearish bias and prompt some aggressive short-covering move and assist the pair to surpass last week's swing high resistance near the 1.1085 level.



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#WeekAhead #forex #news #followme #socialtrading

Hey friends! Happy new week.

Here are the data highlights for this week:



10:00 Chinese industrial production, fixed asset investment and retail sales


09:30 RBA Meeting Minutes

17:00 German ZEW economic sentiment and

21:15 US industrial production


16:30 UK Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Aug)

20:30 Canada BoC CPI


02:00 US FOMC Economic Projections

02:00 US Fed's Monetary Policy Statement REPORT

02:00 US Fed Interest Rate Decision

02:30 US FOMC Press Conference SPEECH

06:45 AUD Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (Q2)

09:30 AUD Employment Change s.a. (Aug)

09:30 AUD Unemployment Rate s.a. (Aug)

10:00 JPY BoJ Interest Rate Decision

10:00 JPY BoJ Monetary Policy Statement REPORT

14:00 JPY BoJ Press Conference SPEECH

19:00 UK BoE Asset Purchase Facility

19:00 UK BoE Interest Rate Decision

19:00 UK BoE MPC Vote Hike

19:00 UK Bank of England Minutes REPORT

19:00 UK BoE MPC Vote Cut

19:00 UK BoE MPC Vote Unchanged


20:30 Canadian Retail Sales (MoM) (Jul)

#FederalReserve is expected to cut rate about 25-basis point. It would be a major shock if the Fed doesn’t deliver. But some, including Donald Trump, want more than just 25 basis points. In fact, the US President has called for “boneheads” Fed to cut rates to zero or lower in a tweet this week. Understandably, with US data not deteriorating as badly as, say, Germany, the Fed is reluctant to cut aggressively and rightly so. The risk therefore is that the Fed refuses to provide a dovish outlook for interest rates. In this potential scenario, a rate cut might only weigh on the dollar momentarily. With most other major central banks already being or turning dovish, the Fed will also need to be super dovish for the dollar to end its bullish trend. Otherwise, the greenback may find renewed bullish momentum, even if the Fed cuts by 25 basis points.

The #Swiss National Bank will have to say about the #ECB’s decision to resume bond buying, given the recent appreciation of the franc against the shared currency. The #BoJ is unlikely to respond to the #ECB’s resumption of bond buying. It may keep the current policy of controlling the yield curve. For one, the global economy hasn’t deteriorated too significantly to exacerbate deflationary pressures in the export-oriented Japanese economy. For another, the there’s only limited number of policy options left at the BoJ's disposal. Thus, cutting short-term interest rates further into the negative may be an option, but to be used on another occasion.