#forex #forexnews #Brexit
#GBPUSD is trading at 1.2867, having breached key support on Tuesday, courtesy of Brexit delay.
The pound fell below the 50-hour moving average, confirming a bearish reversal on short duration charts. The key MA had consistently reversed pullbacks throughout the rally from 1.22 to 1.30 and may work as stiff resistance henceforth.
The GBP was offered as #PrimeMinister #Johnson's #BrexitBill won parliamentary support, but the government’s timetable of just 3 days debate on the bill was rejected.
With the parliamentary defeat, the probability of Britain leaving the European Union (#EU) before the Oct. 31 deadline has dropped sharply.
Further, a source in Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s office said on Tuesday that a new election would be the only way to move on from Britain’s Brexit crisis if the European Union agrees to a delay until January.
On a daily chart, the uptrend in GBP/USD appears to have stalled. Signs of indecision loom as a #Bearish Harami candlestick pattern risks paving the way for a reversal. Prices are eyeing near-term support which is a range between 1.2773 and 1.2798. A close under this barrier could open the door to testing former highs from September. Otherwise, clearing resistance at 1.3001 prolongs the uptrend.
Expectation for GBP to “retest the 1.3010/15 level” was incorrect as GBP rose briefly to 1.3000 before plummeting to 1.2862 during NY hours. Upward pressure has dissipated and the short-term risk is for a deeper pullback. That said, any weakness is viewed as a lower trading range of 1.2810/1.2920 and a sustained decline below 1.2810 appears unlikely for now.
Next 1-3 weeks:
#GBP tried to break clearly above 1.3000 for the second straight day yesterday (22 Oct) but slumped after touching 1.3000. For now, there is no change to our view from Monday (21 Oct, spot at 1.2880) wherein “GBP has to ‘punch’ above 1.3000 and register a NY closing above this level in order to indicate that the current rally has enough ‘ammunitions’ to extend to 1.3050, possibly as high as 1.3150”. While there is no change to our view, severely overbought conditions suggest GBP could ill afford to dither below 1.3000 or the risk of a short-term top would increase rapidly. From here, unless GBP cracks and stays above 1.3000 within these 1 to 2 days, a break of 1.2770 (no change in ‘strong support’ level) would indicate that the positive phase that started more than a week ago (see annotations in the chart below) has run its course. Looking ahead, a breach of 1.2770 would suggest that GBP is ready to ‘take a breather’ after the steep rally over the past couple of weeks.
#GBPUSD is trading at 1.2867, having breached key support on Tuesday, courtesy of Brexit delay.
The pound fell below the 50-hour moving average, confirming a bearish reversal on short duration charts. The key MA had consistently reversed pullbacks throughout the rally from 1.22 to 1.30 and may work as stiff resistance henceforth.
The GBP was offered as #PrimeMinister #Johnson's #BrexitBill won parliamentary support, but the government’s timetable of just 3 days debate on the bill was rejected.
With the parliamentary defeat, the probability of Britain leaving the European Union (#EU) before the Oct. 31 deadline has dropped sharply.
Further, a source in Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s office said on Tuesday that a new election would be the only way to move on from Britain’s Brexit crisis if the European Union agrees to a delay until January.
On a daily chart, the uptrend in GBP/USD appears to have stalled. Signs of indecision loom as a #Bearish Harami candlestick pattern risks paving the way for a reversal. Prices are eyeing near-term support which is a range between 1.2773 and 1.2798. A close under this barrier could open the door to testing former highs from September. Otherwise, clearing resistance at 1.3001 prolongs the uptrend.
Expectation for GBP to “retest the 1.3010/15 level” was incorrect as GBP rose briefly to 1.3000 before plummeting to 1.2862 during NY hours. Upward pressure has dissipated and the short-term risk is for a deeper pullback. That said, any weakness is viewed as a lower trading range of 1.2810/1.2920 and a sustained decline below 1.2810 appears unlikely for now.
Next 1-3 weeks:
#GBP tried to break clearly above 1.3000 for the second straight day yesterday (22 Oct) but slumped after touching 1.3000. For now, there is no change to our view from Monday (21 Oct, spot at 1.2880) wherein “GBP has to ‘punch’ above 1.3000 and register a NY closing above this level in order to indicate that the current rally has enough ‘ammunitions’ to extend to 1.3050, possibly as high as 1.3150”. While there is no change to our view, severely overbought conditions suggest GBP could ill afford to dither below 1.3000 or the risk of a short-term top would increase rapidly. From here, unless GBP cracks and stays above 1.3000 within these 1 to 2 days, a break of 1.2770 (no change in ‘strong support’ level) would indicate that the positive phase that started more than a week ago (see annotations in the chart below) has run its course. Looking ahead, a breach of 1.2770 would suggest that GBP is ready to ‘take a breather’ after the steep rally over the past couple of weeks.