Daily Market Analysis by ForexMart

[Luis ForexMart]

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: June 14, 2017

The EUR/USD pair merely continued its tight trading action during yesterday’s session as the market braces itself for the announcement coming from the FOMC scheduled for today. The currency pair had initially attempted to move towards the bottom if its range but was immediately met with some large-scale buys in the 1.1160-1.1180 range, prompting the currency pair to revert to its original range.

During the previous session, the most important region for the pair’s bulls and bears was the 1.1200 trading range, with the currency pair managing to close down yesterday’s session at just over this particular range. However, this would all be futile if ever the Fed decides to implement another interest rate hike and release a very hawkish statement. As of the moment, the market has priced in a 90% possibility of rate hike, with the Fed neither confirming nor denying rumors of a possible interest rate hike. The market has taken this as a positive signal from the Fed as far as the rate hike is concerned, and this is one of the reasons why the EUR/USD pair is now trading within its range lows paired with somewhat tame bounces in between as the USD continues to hold on to its current value. Now that the rate hike is already priced in, the market will now be shifting its focus towards the FOMC statement, where the central bank is expected give clues with regards to the next rate hike. The next scheduled rate hike was initially scheduled to be implemented this coming September, however a series of negative data from the US economy has caused doubts on whether the central bank will be indeed pushing through with the next rate hike.

Aside from the FOMC rate announcement, the US economy will also be releasing its retail sales data and CPI data, both of which are expected to induce volatility levels into the EUR/USD pair. However, since the market will be focusing today on the rate announcement, a volatility surge is expected right after the release of the FOMC statement.

 

[Luis ForexMart]

USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: June 15, 2017
The USD/CAD pair was expected to exhibit a wild price action during the previous session but it surprisingly became subdued and instead chose to consolidate within a very tight range. This could possibly be caused by the pair’s already very weak price action as it has been consistently dropping in value during the past few days, with the pair’’s traders choosing instead to focus on position shifts, profit-taking, and consolidation instead of taking more risks on the USD/CAD pair. This is why the pair’s whipsawing was still somewhat muted and has enabled the currency pair to remain within a tight trading range.
However, the currency pair has managed to sink past 1.3200 points and looked to test its support levels at 1.3160 for a short period following a series of disappointing economic readings from the US economy. Both the CPI data and the retail sales data from the US economy disappointed the market and this triggered a widespread dollar selling amid worries that the Fed might rethink its decision and refrain from raising rates until the market throws up some good data. This further pressured the pair to advance towards its support range although it was able to revert later in the evening as the Fed stuck to its original plan and implemented yet another rate hike. This triggered a slew of dollar buys and has helped the USD/CAD pair to shot past 1.3200, where it is currently situated as of the moment. The currency pair could possibly inch back towards 1.3300 points, however the currency pair might stay put at least for the time being since the Canadian economy continues to improve, with the BoC looking into a possible interest rate hike in the near future.
For today’s session, there are no major releases from the Canadian economy while the US will be releasing its unemployment claims data. The dominant market trend for today is the effect of the Fed announcement yesterday, which is expected to at least keep the USD/CAD pair in line for a few more days.

 

[Luis ForexMart]

GBP/NZD Technical Analysis: June 19, 2017

The British pound against the New Zealand dollar rebounded in its descending channel resistance as it moves towards the support region. If the base of the support region at 1.7300 handle is sustained, there is a possibility for another retest of the resistance level.

The stochastic diagrams are demonstrated the market has entered oversold area. This implies that the sellers are weakening and buyers are starting to dominate the trend. There is the least resistance found below as the 200-day Simple Moving Average is above the 100-day Simple Moving Average. The current price trend could initiate a selloff at a steeper price which could follow a break lower.

Traders are expecting for a hawkish decision from the central bank this week but are still in a better position compared to the British currency that abruptly shifted following a hawkish decision from the Bank of England. Data from the U.K. gave a mixed results although, both the inflation rates and consumer spending send off signal for policymakers to tighten its policy rates to be able to sustain growth.

Headlines about Brexit talks and the recent speech from the queen somehow gives risk in the financial market especially the concerns in hard Brexit or end it all which would then gives a bearish sentiment in the market. However, this could end up positively which would be favorable for all that brings a bullish sentiment for the pound.

 

[Luis ForexMart]

USD/CAD Technical Analysis: June 19, 2017

The U.S. dollar against the Canadian dollar moves sideways within the trading scope between 1.3164 and 1.3308 region. The resistance is found at 1.3308 level for short-term and break out in this level would test the next key resistance level at 1.3350. If the said level at 1.3350 is sustained, then the next move will most likely from 1.3164 as a form of consolidation for a descend from 1.3793.

A downtrend towards the 1.3050 will most likely happen next, following the consolidation. The short-term support is found at 1.3164 and a breakdown from this mark would hint the extension of the downtrend.

 

[Luis ForexMart]

USD/JPY Technical Analysis: June 19, 2017

The U.S. dollar against the Japanese yen climbed higher during the Friday session. There is a massive resistance found in the 11.40 level to reverse the trend followed by a decline. A neutral candle is formed for the day although the market is trying to gain momentum as they are trying to recover following the drastic move in the upside on Thursday.

The Federal Reserve is being hawkish more than expected which is favorable for the greenback since the Bank of Japan moves contradictorily when it comes to monetary policy. The 110 region remains supportive which would most likely become the floor of the market.

For now, it is advisable to short this pair to take advantage of its short-term decline and rendering more support for every short-term credit. This is still not finite and the trend could decline anytime although the next move would most likely be in the upside reflecting the impulsiveness of the market. Hence, buying is much more practical in the current market condition.

The initial next target would be at 112 then 112.50 level. For long-term, the trend could reach as high as 115 region although it might take longer to achieve this. There is also a tendency for the pair to be volatile which is not surprising. It is good to trade this pair in the current market as it could also benefit the greenback traded against the yen since the BOJ is dovish and most likely continue for a longer period of time.

 

[Luis ForexMart]

NZD/USD Technical Analysis: June 19, 2017
The New Zealand currency trend upwards amid sessions on Friday, touching the 0.7250 region. The 0.72 area acts as support by which the market would likely move close to 0.73 mark in the longer-term. The pullback has to offer buying opportunities since the Kiwi demonstrated some strength in the past few months. With this, a break on top of 0.73 will then be trailed towards the 0.75 area which is also the longer-term target based on the past analysis.
The buy on dips is quite suitable to the NZ dollar as long as we remain over the level 0.72 which probably lots of traders planned as well.
Entering the 0.75 range might take some time, however, there are many buying opportunities within that region. Taking advantage on these small steps towards gain is favorable and establishing a larger position in order to obtain strong returns along with an essential range bound from the FX market in general.
Ability to breakdown underneath 0.72 region may move lower through 0.70 and this are few of the possible scenarios. A cut through below that point would mean an extremely negative position or may be driving the market near 0.68 handle. There is only roughly a 20% chance that buyers will become active.

 

[Luis ForexMart]

GBP/USD Technical Analysis: June 19, 2017
The sterling pound had increased in a moderate manner amid Friday session, as it grinds through the 1.28 handle. This level apparently offers some resistance, however, the market seems was determined in trying to cut through on top of it. Ability to do so, will enable the market to move over the 1.29 region. Otherwise, a pullback must find another leg close the area 1.27 as this might provide some support during trading on Thursday.
The Bank of England provided support to the British currency as the bank became more hawkish which favors the GBP in general. When the market break out in the upside, it would touch the 1.3050 region.
Many long-term speculators have purchase the Great Britain pound and it is not really surprising for the returns that could drive things towards their direction.
As the year ends, the target will be at the 1.3450 level or even higher. The trend will further ascend when the UK’s government gained clarity about the EU exit.
New highs of the pound can easily be done when this issue will be cleared combined with higher-than-expected inflation figures. Contrarily, a breakdown under the level 1.2640 would push the market to a lower grounds, down to 1.25 handle.

 

[Luis ForexMart]

USD/CAD Technical Analysis: June 21, 2017

The U.S. dollar surged against the Canadian dollar during Tuesday session. It is mainly due to the decline of the crude oil market. The Loonie is sensitive to the oil market since the currency is commonly used as a proxy in trading. It rebounded significantly in the 1.32 handle which entails volatility in the market.

A break higher than the 1.33 region would bring this pair higher towards the 1.3450 mark. The crude oil inventory is scheduled to be released today which will certainly bring choppiness in the market and will gather enough momentum to direct in a particular direction.

The consolidation persists which will only change when there is a significant event in the crude oil market. Hence, there is more risk in the upper channel amid the comments from the Bank of Canada.

The Canadian market is expecting a hawkish decision from the central bank since the Fed is already in a tightening cycle. The crude oil market will also most likely drop which will be favorable for the pair, especially for long-term.

The pair is currently training in a narrow range for short-term and it won’t be too long before a breakout happens. If observed, the pair is already in an uptrend for some time as shown in the long-term charts. This is favorable for long-term as more gains will come in the upper channel. Hence, it may not be best to sell this pair for short-term trends.

 

[Luis ForexMart]

EUR/GBP Technical Analysis: June 21, 2017

The EUR/GBP pair is gaining strength as it gapped higher during the Tuesday session. It broke the 0.88 handle although the British currency dropped in general which attracted buyers to join the market. The 0.88 level is being supportive and some pullbacks will open more buying opportunities. After some time, the market would target the 0.8850 region and a breakout from this would imply a bullish tone in the market. Then, they will push the pair towards the 0.90 level. This would be a difficult target to achieve but this will most likely be the results after.

Traders could take advantage of short-term pullbacks exhibiting support in the trend, as well as the impulsive candles formed in the upper channel. On the other hand, this could also mean weakness of the British currency. Nevertheless, the returns would still be the same.

Signs of pullbacks could be seen in the channel that has a market value as a whole but a break exceeding the 0.90 level indicates strong bullish tone in the market. This could even push the pair at par level. It may take time before this happens but this is most likely the direction where long-term traders are headed.

In general, the current breakout could push this pair to move higher in the long run but expect some pullbacks from that region. In any event, the market is directed upwards for long-term which traders should think of before placing a trade. However, traders should be careful when the trend hit the purple levels which are not a good sign.

 

[Luis ForexMart]

GBP/JPY Technical Analysis: June 21, 2017

The British pound against the Japanese yen moved laterally during the early Tuesday session, followed by a decline reaching the 140.50 level below. This is suggestive to become a relevant psychological level. However, sellers are waiting for a technical breakdown as the market fills the gap in the past few weeks.

The general sentiment of commodities and the stock market should be taken into consideration of the market. If this collapse, this will put a bearish tone in the trend. A breakdown lower than the 140.50 region will give a negative implication as it extends towards the 139 level. Volatility will still persist in the market and start to enter the oversold area in the short-term. Overall, the market is currently in a perilous state and requires patience from traders to gain profit in either direction.

This pair is sensitive to risk appetite that makes it important for traders to observe the trend in the stock market and commodities. Furthermore, concerns in Brexit will generate more noise to the British currency as a whole, which will have repercussions on the market afterward that should not be neglected. If the pound appreciates, the trend will then be reversed moving to the upper channel.

However, if the currency falls instead, this further weakens traded against the Japanese yen, being the safety currency. Overall, there will be choppiness in this market and traders could get hints on what will happen next through other financial markets.