Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen

Gold Price Drops After US Employment Report
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As per ForexFactory, the Non-Farm Employment Change report revealed an actual increase of 272 thousand jobs (expected = 182k, previous value = 165k).

A robust job market provides further arguments for the Federal Reserve to continue its tight monetary policy. Consequently, the news led to a rise in the dollar index and a decrease in assets denominated in US dollars:
→ Currencies depreciated; for instance, the NZD/USD rate decreased by approximately 1.5%;
→ Cryptocurrencies declined; Bitcoin dropped by roughly 3%;
→ Gold also decreased in price.

The situation worsens for the gold price with the news that China has stopped buying the metal for reserves after doing so for 18 months. According to ING, China's appetite showed signs of weakening in April when the central bank purchased only 60,000 ounces compared to 160,000 ounces in March.

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TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT THE FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
 
Goldman Sachs Predicts a Rise in Brent Crude Oil Prices
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According to CNBC, Goldman Sachs analysts believe that Brent crude oil prices should increase in the third quarter due to summer fuel demand leading to a “significant” deficit—approximately 1.3 million barrels per day. They forecast that the price of Brent could rise to $86 per barrel with a “ceiling” around $90.

This implies an approximate +7% increase from current levels and a continued rise from the low set on 4 June. How realistic is this?

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TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
 
AAPL Shares Drop Following the Apple Intelligence Presentation
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Yesterday, 10 June, at the WWDC2024 conference, the American corporation Apple unveiled its new artificial intelligence system, Apple Intelligence (AI).

Apple Intelligence will allow users to enhance their text and communicate more effectively: rewriting, proofreading, and summarising text almost everywhere, including in mail, notes, pages, and third-party applications. The Rewrite function will enable changing the tone of messages, adding jokes, and rephrasing sentences.

Key features include:
→ AI's capability to understand the user's "personal context."
→ AI's ability to generate unique photos, sketches, and illustrations in Notes, Freeform, and Pages.
→ Apple confirmed its collaboration with OpenAI during the presentation.

However, on the same day, AAPL shares fell nearly 2%, with high trading volumes on the Nasdaq—over 97 million shares were traded, compared to an average volume of about 59 million.

Is this a sign that investors were disappointed with the presentation? Looking at AAPL’s stock chart today, it suggests that the decline might be due to the significant $195 level per AAPL share.

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TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
 
Market Analysis: EUR/USD Dives While USD/JPY Continues To Rise
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EUR/USD gained bearish momentum below the 1.0810 support. USD/JPY is rising and might take out the 157.40 resistance.

Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and USD/JPY Analysis Today

  • The Euro started a fresh decline below the 1.0810 support zone.
  • There is a connecting bearish trend line forming with resistance at 1.0760 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen.
  • USD/JPY climbed higher above the 155.25 and 156.25 levels.
  • There is a connecting bullish trend line forming with support at 156.85 on the hourly chart at FXOpen.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen, the pair struggled to clear the 1.0900 resistance zone. The Euro started a fresh decline and traded below the 1.0810 support zone against the US Dollar, as mentioned in the previous analysis.

The pair even declined below 1.0760 and tested the 1.0720 zone. A low was formed near 1.0719 and the pair is now consolidating losses. On the upside, the pair is now facing resistance near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 1.0901 swing high to the 1.0719 low at 1.0760.

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There is also a connecting bearish trend line forming with resistance at 1.0760 and the 50-hour simple moving average. The next key resistance is near the 1.0780 level.

The main resistance is 1.0810 or the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 1.0901 swing high to the 1.0719 low. A clear move above the 1.0810 level could send the pair toward the 1.0860 resistance.

An upside break above 1.0860 could set the pace for another increase. In the stated case, the pair might rise toward 1.0900. If not, the pair might resume its decline. The first major support on the EUR/USD chart is near 1.0720.

The next key support is at 1.0680. If there is a downside break below 1.0680, the pair could drop toward 1.0650. The next support is near 1.0620, below which the pair could start a major decline.

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
 
FTSE 100 Index Declines After Labour Market News
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The British stock index FTSE 100 (UK 100 on FXOpen) dropped nearly 1% yesterday due to the release of economic data indicating a rise in unemployment.

According to ForexFactory:
→ The Claimant Count Change (number of unemployment benefit claims) was 50,000 (expected = 10.2k, previous month = 8.4k). This is the highest number since March 2021.
→ The unemployment rate slightly increased to 4.4% compared to the previous value of 4.3%.
However, today the FTSE 100 (UK 100 on FXOpen) chart is showing signs of recovery.

Fundamentally:
→ GDP news did not bring any unpleasant surprises;
→ Weakening in the labour market might prompt the Bank of England to lower the interest rate to stimulate the economy, which should support the stock index.

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TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
 
USD/CAD Retracts from Nearly 2-Month High
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Yesterday, the USD/CAD exchange rate climbed above 1.3785 for the first time since mid-April.

However, today's USD/CAD chart shows that it failed to consolidate at this peak and has dropped to a weekly low.

These fluctuations might be interpreted as traders positioning themselves ahead of today's critical events. According to ForexFactory:

At 15:30 GMT+3, US inflation data will be released;
At 21:00 GMT+3, the Fed's interest rate decision will be announced;
At 21:30 GMT+3, Powell's press conference will take place.

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TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
 
Inflation Data and Fed Verdict Could Set Dollar's Summer Trend
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The US currency is gearing up for the most important trading session of the current week, and possibly even the month. Today, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for May will be released. Additionally, the Federal Reserve (Fed) has a meeting scheduled today where the base interest rate will be announced, along with the regulator's dot plot forecast for the rest of the year. Considering that last Friday's employment data exceeded forecasts, many investors and experts (according to an FT-Chicago Booth survey) believe that:

  • The Fed will reduce rates by only a quarter of a percentage point this year;
  • Instead of three cuts, economists and traders are pricing in up to two rate cuts by the end of the year.

Naturally, such hawkish market expectations are likely to support the strengthening of the US currency. However, it should be noted that the dollar is currently at medium- and long-term highs, and the likelihood of a pullback and the formation of reversal patterns is quite high.

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
 
Dollar Falls After Inflation Data: Is a Change in Medium-Term Trends on the Horizon?
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The second consecutive decline in the US core consumer price index caused a sharp drop in the American currency across the board. For instance, the GBP/USD pair rose by 120 points within a couple of hours, attempting to strengthen above 1.2800. The EUR/USD pair closed Monday's “price gap” and tested 1.0850, while the USD/JPY pair briefly traded below 156.00. However, a change in medium-term trends remains highly uncertain. The Fed meeting and the publication of an updated economic forecast by the US regulator allowed the dollar to quickly recover some losses.

From yesterday's Fed statement:

  • The target range for the federal funds rate remains at 5.25–5.50%;
  • The median forecast by FOMC members suggests one and a half rate cuts for the federal funds rate (compared to three in the March forecast).

From the published data, it can be inferred that the Fed maintains a fairly hawkish stance, which could support buyers of the US currency.

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
 
S&P 500 Index Hits Record After Major News
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Yesterday, significant news regarding US inflation was released. According to ForexFactory:
→ Year-on-year Consumer Price Index (CPI): actual = 3.3%, forecast = 3.4%, previous = 3.4%;
→ Month-on-month CPI: actual = 0.0%, forecast = 0.1%, previous = 0.3%;
→ Month-on-month Core CPI (excluding food and energy): actual = 0.2%, forecast = 0.3%, previous = 0.3%.

These official figures indicate that US inflation is slowing down.

This bolstered expectations that the current tight monetary policy might ease. Consequently:
→ the dollar weakened (as we anticipated yesterday while analysing the USD/CAD chart);
→ stock markets surged. Notably, the S&P 500 index (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) surpassed 5,444, rising approximately 1.1% within two hours following the inflation news release.

Later that day, the Fed's rate decision and Powell's press conference took place:
→ the Fed rate remained unchanged at 5.5% (as expected);
→ Jerome Powell signalled a possible rate cut before the end of the year, hinting at the possibility of two cuts.

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TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
 
Market Analysis: GBP/USD and EUR/GBP Poised For More Losses
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GBP/USD failed to climb above 1.2860 and trimmed all gains. EUR/GBP is declining and trading below the 0.8410 support level.

Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and EUR/GBP Analysis Today

  • The British Pound is showing bearish signs below 1.2800.
  • There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near 1.2765 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen.
  • EUR/GBP is declining and showing bearish signs below 0.8460.
  • There is a major declining channel forming with support at 0.8410 on the hourly chart at FXOpen.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis
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On the hourly chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen, the pair started a fresh decline from the 1.2860 zone. As mentioned in the previous analysis, the British Pound struggled to extend gains and declined below the 1.2800 support level against the US Dollar.

There was a clear move below the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.2706 swing low to the 1.2860 high. The pair even settled below the 1.2765 level and the 50-hour simple moving average.

The pair tested the 1.2740 support zone and the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.2706 swing low to the 1.2860 high.

It is now consolidating losses above the 1.2740 level. On the upside, the GBP/USD chart indicates that the pair is facing resistance near 1.2765 and a connecting bearish trend line. The next major resistance is near the 50-hour simple moving average at 1.2780.

A close above the 1.2780 resistance zone could open the doors for a move toward 1.2825. Any more gains might send it toward 1.2860. If not, the pair could resume its decline below 1.2740. On the downside, there is a key support forming near 1.2710.

If there is a downside break below the 1.2710 support, the pair could accelerate lower. The next major support is near the 1.2690 zone, below which the pair could test 1.2650. Any more losses could lead the pair toward the 1.2550 support.

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
 
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