Daily Market Outlook by Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

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Forex Major Currencies Outlook (May 8, 2013)

USD

The U.S. dollar’s rally gained legs against most of the other major currencies in yesterday’s trading when some economies once again showed signs of weakness. For one, Australia underwent a rate cut from the RBA while the RBNZ financial stability report highlighted the weaknesses in the New Zealand economy. European pairs also tumbled as risk appetite was down for the rest of the trading day. There were no major reports released from the U.S. and none are due for today. Watch out for a couple of speeches from top U.S. finance officers, namely Treasury Secretary Lew and FOMC member Stein.

EUR

It was a mixed day for the euro yesterday as France printed weaker than expected industrial production data while Germany posted stronger than estimated factory orders figures. French industrial production slipped by 0.9% while German factory orders jumped by 2.2%. For today, there are no reports due from the euro zone as French banks are on a holiday. With that, expect lower liquidity and possibly higher volatility in today’s London session.

GBP

After days of consolidating between 1.5550 and 1.5600, GBP/USD broke down and reached the 1.5450 support area. There were no major reports released from the U.K. then but expectations of dovishness from the BOE in their rate statement this week seems to be weighing on the pair as early as today. BRC retail sales posted a 2.2% decline, erasing the 1.9% gain seen in the previous month, while the Halifax HPI is set for release. Further weakness in the housing market could push GBP/USD even lower today.

CHF

Swiss reports were generally mixed yesterday as the SECO consumer climate figure disappointed while the foreign currency reserves of the SNB showed a bit of improvement. Reserves of foreign currencies declined for the month, as the central bank is having an easier time defending its EUR/CHF peg. However, the SECO consumer climate figure climbed from -6 to -5 only, instead of improving to -3. Swiss CPI is due later on today and another weak figure could drag the Swiss franc lower.

JPY

Yen pairs barely saw any action in yesterday’s trading as traders awaited more data from most major economies. The yen pairs that did budge moved to the downside as risk remained off. There are no reports due from the Japan lately so yen pairs could continue to trade on market sentiment, with a risk on environment causing losses for the lower-yielding yen.


Commodity Currencies (AUD, CAD, NZD)

The RBA’s surprise rate cut weighed on the Australian dollar and New Zealand dollar in yesterday’s trading but the Loonie seemed more resilient. The RBNZ’s financial stability report pinpointed the prevailing weaknesses in the economy, prompting market participants to think that the central bank might cut rates as well. Chinese trade balance came in strong earlier today, providing support for the comdolls, but the Kiwi’s fate could rest on the upcoming New Zealand jobs data release.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

 

[katetrades]

Forex Major Currencies Outlook (May 9, 2013)

USD

The Greenback weakened against most of its major currency counterparts in yesterday’s trading as risk appetite generally improved. There have been no major reports released from the U.S. lately, which explains why dollar pairs’ moves have been limited in the past few days. The only report due from the U.S. today is the initial jobless claims report, which could show a slight increase from the other week’s 324K to 333K for last week. A significantly higher than expected reading could undermine the recent recovery in the U.S. labor market, but a figure close to the consensus isn’t likely to result in huge dollar moves.

EUR

The euro got a boost from improved economic data from Germany as the country’s industrial production figure beat expectations. The report printed a 1.2% increase for March, much better than the estimated 0.1% decline, while the previous month’s figure was revised up to 0.6%. Only the ECB monthly bulletin is set for release from the euro zone today as French and German banks are on a holiday. With that, expect lower liquidity in the London session and possibly higher volatility.

GBP

It’s a big day for the pound pairs today as the BOE will be making its interest rate decision. No changes to its 0.50% interest rate and 375 billion GBP asset purchases are expected, so traders will be all eyes and ears on the accompanying speech by BOE Governor Mervyn King. If the central bank head decides to emphasize the recent improvements in the British economy, such as the strong PMI figures and the fact that the U.K. dodged a triple-dip recession, the pound could be in for some gains. Be wary though that the BOE might also join the currency intervention camp in order to retain its competitiveness in the global economy.

JPY

Only the leading indicators report will be printed by Japan today. A slight improvement from 97.6% to 97.7% is expected as the BOJ’s recent stimulus efforts might have already kicked in. Other than that, the yen’s price action could be mostly dictated by risk sentiment for the rest of the trading day.

CHF

The Swiss CPI missed expectations and fell flat in April, chalking up a 0.6% decline on an annual basis. Despite that, the Swiss franc managed to outpace the U.S. dollar in yesterday’s trading. There are no major reports due from Switzerland today so expect quiet trading among franc pairs or that USD/CHF will be swayed by dollar reports.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, CAD, NZD)

Both Australia and New Zealand enjoyed stronger than expected jobs data recently, with Australia printing a 50.1K increase in monthly hiring while New Zealand showed 1.7% employment growth for Q1 2013. What’s currently weighing on the Kiwi though is RBNZ head Graeme Wheeler’s admission that the central bank intervened in the forex market recently to curb Kiwi strength. As for the Canadian dollar, only the NHPI report is on tap for today and this isn’t likely to spur a huge reaction from USD/CAD.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

 

[katetrades]

Forex Major Currencies Outlook (May 10, 2013)

USD

The U.S. dollar gained a lot of ground against its major counterparts in yesterday’s trading, despite the lack of top-tier data from most major economies. EUR/USD is back to testing the 1.3000 major psychological support while USD/JPY finally breached the 100.00 barrier. Better than expected U.S. initial jobless claims may have sparked a stronger than usual reaction in the markets, as the actual figure landed at 323K, lower than the estimated 333K in first-time claimants. The G7 meetings are set to take place starting today so watch out for potential gaps over the weekend.

EUR

The ECB monthly bulletin was the only report on the euro zone’s agenda yesterday and the release didn’t contain any surprises. The euro sold off against the dollar, which benefitted from strong initial jobless claims figures, and rallied against the Japanese yen. German trade balance and Italian industrial production figures are set for release in today’s European session so watch out for these reports.

GBP

As expected, the Bank of England kept monetary policy unchanged in their latest rate decision. The central bank maintained interest rates at 0.50% and their asset purchase program at the current 375 billion GBP level. BOE Governor Mervyn King thought that there was no need to add stimulus for now as the British economy has shown signs of improvement and was able to avoid a recession for the first quarter of the year. UK manufacturing production came in stronger than expected and showed 1.7% growth, but this wasn’t enough to keep the pound afloat against the dollar in yesterday’s trading.

CHF

There were no reports released from Switzerland yesterday but the franc suffered a massive selloff against the U.S. dollar since the latter enjoyed a strong initial jobless claims report. There are no reports due from Switzerland today so USD/CHF could be sensitive to dollar flows once more.

JPY

The Japanese yen lost a lot of ground to the U.S. dollar lately with USD/JPY breaching the 100.00 mark and even reaching 101.00 in today’s Asian session. Japanese current account was weaker than expected at 0.34 trillion JPY versus the estimated 0.48 trillion JPY surplus. The Economy Watchers Sentiment figure is due from Japan later today.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, CAD, NZD)

Although Australian and New Zealand jobs data both came in strong yesterday, the Aussie and the Kiwi were no match to dollar strength. AUD/USD broke below the key 1.0200 support while NZD/USD retreated upon pulling back to the .8480 area. Canada is next to release its jobs report today and a 14.8K rebound in hiring is projected, which could keep the jobless rate steady at 7.2%.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

 

[katetrades]

Forex Major Currencies Outlook (May 13, 2013)

USD

The US dollar got a strong boost from the Fed’s announcement of their concrete plans to exit their open-ended asset purchase program. Although an actual date hasn’t been specified, the fact that the Fed is considering tightening monetary policy renewed demand for the dollar, especially since other major economies are considering loosening monetary policy in order to devalue their currencies and retain competitiveness in global trade. US data set for release this week, including the retail sales figures due today, could reinforce dollar strength as strong data could push the Fed closer to exiting their easing program. Slight declines are expected for the April retail sales report, but an upside surprise could be likely as the jobs report for the same month has turned out well.

EUR

EUR/USD finally made a strong break below the 1.3000 major psychological level on Friday as the US Federal Reserve talked about their stimulus exit plan. Data from the euro zone has been disappointing as German trade balance missed expectations while Italy posted weaker than expected industrial production. No euro zone reports are due for today.

GBP

GBP/USD suffered a strong selloff on Friday, although the pair’s uptrend still seems to be intact. The BOE is one of the more relatively upbeat central banks, providing a bit of support for the pound amidst the sudden surge in dollar buying. For the week, the UK claimant count change and the quarterly inflation report could dictate pound price action. BOE Governor King is also set to give a testimony later in the week, which could also affect GBP/USD’s movement.

CHF

The Swiss franc got sold off against the US dollar and the euro on Friday. For today, the Swiss retail sales report could determine the franc’s movement as the report is slated to show a mere 1.0% annual uptick for March. This is much lower than the previously reported 2.4% increase for February. A weaker than expected figure could worsen the franc’s selloff while a strong figure could keep the losses at bay.

JPY

USD/JPY finally breached the 100.00 major psychological barrier when the US Fed unveiled its plans to exit its stimulus program. Japanese trade deficit has also come in weaker than expected, worsening the yen’s selloff. There are no major reports due from Japan today so watch out for any changes in market sentiment when trading yen pairs.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, CAD, NZD)

Although some commodity currencies enjoyed upbeat jobs reports, they were still sold off when the US Fed talked about their plans to exit quantitative easing. AUD/USD broke below the key 1.0200 support while NZD/USD suffered sharp selloff to the .8300 area. Canadian hiring was weaker than expected in April, with only 12.5K in additional hiring, lower than the estimated 14.8K rise. For today, Australian data came in mixed with a strong 5.2% increase in home loans and a decline in NAB business confidence from 2 to -2.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

 

[katetrades]

Forex Major Currencies Outlook (May 14, 2013)

USD

Dollar strength is still in vogue today as the latest U.S. retail sales release somewhat came in line with consensus. The headline figure showed a 0.1% increase instead of the estimated 0.3% drop while the core version of the report printed a 0.1% downtick as expected. There are no major reports due from the U.S. today, which suggests quiet trading for most dollar pairs, but it would be helpful to keep your eyes and ears peeled for any comments from Fed officials regarding the schedule and scale of their planned withdrawal of stimulus. Any hints that the Fed is ready to wind down their bond purchases soon could send the dollar rallying once more.

EUR

The euro is still trying to hold on to the 1.3000 handle against the U.S. dollar, as today’s set of euro zone data could determine whether it’ll hold or break. Germany is set to print its ZEW economic expectations report in today’s European session and possibly show an improvement from 36.3 to 39.5, which could boost the euro. The region could see its ZEW figure improve from 24.9 to 27.3, also a potential boost to the euro.

GBP

The pound has sold off strongly against the U.S. dollar recently even though the BOE didn’t ease monetary policy last week. Traders are probably starting to price in their expectations for the claimant count change report due later on in the week and possibly expecting cautious comments from BOE Governor King. No reports are due from the U.K. today.

CHF

The Swissy lost a lot of ground to the U.S. dollar, which has enjoyed additional strength from the recent retail sales release. Swiss retail sales have disappointed with a 0.9% decline instead of the estimated 1.0% jump in consumer spending. For today, there are no major reports from Switzerland but the downbeat economic outlook is likely to keep dragging the franc lower.

JPY

The Japanese yen is slowly recovering against the U.S. dollar as USD/JPY appears to be having trouble breaking above 102.00. A potential retracement play could work, especially since Japan is set to print its preliminary GDP report later on this week. No reports are due from Japan today.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, CAD, NZD)

Commodity currencies seem to have stalled from their recent selloffs today as AUD/USD struggles to climb back to parity while NZD/USD found support around .8250. There are no major reports due from the comdoll economies for the week, except for the Canadian CPI release on Friday, so the behavior of the comdoll pairs could hinge on dollar demand.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

 

[katetrades]

Forex Major Currencies Outlook (May 15, 2013)

USD

The U.S. dollar continued to advance against its major currency counterparts in yesterday’s trading session as the upbeat monetary policy expectations from the Fed provide support for the Greenback. Today’s set of economic data could confirm if the Fed will be moving closer to implementing their exit plan, as the U.S. will be printing its Empire State manufacturing index, PPI, and industrial production data. The Empire State index is projected to improve from 3.1 to 3.6 while producer prices are likely to post small upticks. Note that worse than expected figures could convince traders that the Fed isn’t likely to wind down their asset purchases anytime soon, which could force the dollar to return some of its recent gains.

EUR

Euro zone GDP is set to come in weaker than the estimated -0.1% figure for Q1 2013, as France and Germany have both posted lower than expected growth. The French economy contracted by 0.2%, worse than the estimated 0.1% dip, while the German economy posted a mere 0.1% uptick for the quarter. Italian GDP is still set to be printed but the odds seem to favor a downside surprise, as analysts predict a 0.4% drop in economic growth. Overall, this should weigh on the region’s GDP, which could come in negative and mark the euro zone’s sixth quarter in recession.

GBP

The U.K. will be printing is claimant count change and releasing its BOE inflation report in today’s London session. Another gain in hiring is projected to follow the previous month’s 7.0K drop in claimants, which should be enough to keep the jobless rate steady at 7.9%. However, worse than expected jobs data could worsen the pound’s slide against the U.S. dollar, possibly pushing GBP/USD below the 1.5200 major psychological level.

CHF

Switzerland is set to release its ZEW economic expectations figure and PPI figures in today’s European session. The ZEW report could show a drop from the previous month’s 20.0 reading as recent economic data from Switzerland have disappointed while the PPI report is slated to show a 0.2% drop in producer prices. Downbeat reports could continue to weigh on the franc, which is already undergoing heavy selling pressure against the U.S. dollar.

JPY

The Japanese yen resumed its selloff in today’s Asian session as Japan’s tertiary industry activity index disappointed and posted a 1.3% drop in services activity. This was way off the estimated 0.6% decline and enough to erase the 1.2% increase seen in the previous period. Consumer confidence in Japan also weakened, with the index falling from 44.8 to 44.5 instead of rising to the estimated 45.8 reading.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, CAD, NZD)

The commodity currencies still sold off against the dollar although at a slower pace in yesterday’s trading. These pairs are currently nearing significant inflection points on longer-term time frames, which explains why price movement is stalling. Perhaps markets are awaiting more catalysts or confirmation from the U.S. economy that could allow these selloff to resume.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

 

[katetrades]

Forex Major Currencies Outlook (May 16, 2013)

USD

The U.S. dollar retreated against most of its major counterparts in yesterday’s New York session, as weak economic figures put a cap on its recent rallies. The Empire State manufacturing index turned out to be a huge disappointment as it printed a -1.4 figure instead of the estimated improvement from 3.1 to 3.6. Producer price levels have also disappointed as a 0.7% decline in input prices was recorded for May, its largest drop in three years. This goes to show that inflation is still weak in the country, which means the Fed might not tighten monetary policy just yet. For today, watch out for the CPI, housing figures, and Philly Fed index. Note that weak data could drive the dollar lower against its counterparts again.

EUR

Weaker than expected GDP readings from euro zone’s largest economies put the entire region deeper in recession for the first quarter of the year. The GDP reading showed a 0.2% contraction, worse than the estimated 0.1% downtick in growth. This suggests that the ECB could move forward with its plan to implement negative deposit rates and possibly increase its purchases of corporate and long-term bonds just to boost the economy. Only medium-tier data are set for release today but these leading indicators could force the euro to resume its drop if they come in weak.

GBP

The pound managed to hold on to its recent levels against the U.S. dollar as the U.K. claimant count change beat expectations. The report showed a 7.3K drop in the number of people claiming jobless benefits for April, allowing the jobless rate to drop from 7.9% to 7.8%. There are no major reports due from the U.K. today which suggests that pound price action could be dependent on market sentiment and U.S. reports.

CHF

Switzerland reported a huge drop in its ZEW economic expectations figure from 20.0 to 2.2 in May, reflecting weaker optimism for the country’s economic outlook. Nonetheless, the franc was able to rebound against the euro and the dollar in yesterday’s trading as both the euro zone and U.S. printed weak data. For today, there are no major reports from Switzerland, which suggests that franc trading could be dependent on market sentiment or data from other economies.

JPY

The Japanese yen made a small recovery against some of its major counterparts in yesterday’s trading, as USD/JPY fell short of hitting the 103.00 handle. EUR/JPY suffered a similar selloff as GDP figures from the euro zone while other yen pairs managed to hold on to their recent levels. Japan’s industrial production report came in better than expected as it showed a 0.9% uptick, higher than the estimated 0.2% increase. No other reports are due from Japan for the rest of the day.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, CAD, NZD)

The commodity currencies managed to pare their losses against the U.S. dollar as a weak round of data from the U.S. kept dollar gains at bay. These currencies were also able to hold steady against the yen. There were no major reports released from Australia and New Zealand recently, but Canada did print a weaker than expected manufacturing sales report. This showed a 0.3% drop in sales instead of the estimated 0.6% growth. Only the producer prices report is due from New Zealand in the next few trading hours, leaving the commodity currencies dependent on market sentiment.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

 

[katetrades]

Forex Major Currencies Outlook (May 17, 2013)

USD

The U.S. economy chalked up another day’s worth of weak economic figures as its CPI and Philly Fed index ended up below expectations. The core CPI figure for April showed a 0.1% uptick instead of the projected 0.2% increase while the headline figure showed a 0.4% decline, worse than the estimated 0.3% drop and the previous 0.2% decline. The Philly Fed index highlighted another disappointment in the manufacturing sector, with the figure for May slipping from 1.3 to -5.2 instead of improving to 2.5. For today, the preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment figure is set for release and it’s expected to print an improvement from 76.4 to 77.9 for the current month. Weak results could keep the dollar’s gains in check.

EUR

The euro had a small rebound against the U.S. dollar in yesterday’s trading as the U.S. economy printed a set of poor figures. However, EUR/USD was unable to sustain its gains past the 1.2900 mark as euro zone officials kept talking about the possibility of implementing negative deposit rates. Euro zone CPI came in line with consensus as the headline figure showed a 1.2% annual increase while the core report printed a 1.0% uptick. There are no reports from the euro zone today so pay special attention to speeches from finance officials in the region.

GBP

The pound continued its rally against the Greenback in yesterday’s trading, pushing GBP/USD back above the 1.5200 major psychological support level. No reports were released from the U.K. yesterday but the positive sentiment from the previous day, when the U.K. printed strong jobs data and the BOE upgraded growth forecasts, continued to provide support for the pound. There are no reports on the U.K. schedule today but MPC member Weale is scheduled to give a speech, so pay attention to his assessment and outlook for the economy.

CHF

USD/CHF dipped below the .9600 level in yesterday’s trading when the U.S. printed worse than expected CPI and manufacturing reports. However, the pair was able to rebound quickly and land back above .9600. There were no reports released from Switerland yesterday and none are due today so keep close tabs on market sentiment and U.S. data if you’re trading USD/CHF.

JPY

The Japanese yen fought hard against the U.S. dollar in yesterday’s trading, allowing USD/JPY to linger around the 102.00 area. Japanese industrial production came in stronger than expected, clocking in a 0.9% increase for April, up from the 0.2% previous figure. Core machinery orders, which was printed earlier today, also came in stronger than expected with a 14.2% jump.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, CAD, NZD)

Commodity currencies continued to bleed against the U.S. dollar as the recent slide in commodity prices started to weigh on their price action. There were no reports released from Australia and New Zealand recently, while Canada is slated to print its CPI data in today’s U.S. session. A 0.2% increase in core price levels are projected while the headline figure is likely to stay flat.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

 

[katetrades]

Forex Major Currencies Outlook (May 20, 2013)

Forex Major Currencies Outlook (May 20, 2013)

USD

The U.S. dollar is still able to draw support from news of the Fed mapping out its stimulus exit plan, despite the wave of bad economic data from the U.S. last week. Inflation reports and manufacturing indices all came in weaker than expected, yet consumer sentiment for the month managed to beat the consensus. There are no major reports on the U.S. schedule for today, as most banks are on a holiday. Be mindful of higher volatility in reaction to FOMC member Evans’ speech in today’s U.S. session.

EUR

The euro dipped to the 1.2800 major psychological support level last week but managed to pullback to 1.2850 earlier this week. Sentiment for the euro remains bearish as the ECB is mulling negative deposit rates and increasing its bond purchases in order to stimulate growth in the region. There are no major reports due from the euro zone today.

GBP

The pound is struggling to stay afloat against the U.S. dollar, as this week’s set of data from the U.K. could determine if the pair could hold on to the 1.5200 major psychological level. There are no reports due from the U.K. today as the first set of data, which are the inflation reports, are due tomorrow. U.K. annual CPI is slated to fall from 2.8% to 2.6% for April, which might mean the BOE has enough scope to ease further if necessary.

JPY

The yen lost ground to the dollar on Friday as the latter benefitted from strong consumer sentiment figures, pushing USD/JPY above the 103.00 handle. There are no major reports due from Japan today as traders await the BOJ interest rate decision on Wednesday. Traders could book profits off their yen shorts prior to the actual event as the central bank could highlight the recent developments in the Japanese economy.

CHF

The franc also lost a lot of ground to the U.S. dollar on Friday as the University of Michigan preliminary consumer sentiment figure beat expectations. Swiss banks are on a holiday today, which means that there could be quiet trading among franc pairs.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, CAD, NZD)

There are no major reports from the comdoll economies today as AUD/USD, USD/CAD, and NZD/USD could be more sensitive to U.S. events. Bear in mind that FOMC member Evans is set to testify in today’s U.S. session and he could remark on the need to withdraw stimulus as early as June. If that’s the case, the commodity currencies could continue to sell off against the Greenback.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

 

[katetrades]

Forex Major Currencies Outlook (May 21, 2013)

USD

The US dollar continued to retreat against its major counterparts, as traders booked profits from key support and resistance levels on the major currency pairs. It seems as though market participants are waiting for further clues on the US economy and the Fed’s monetary policy before pushing the dollar any higher. The FOMC minutes release and Fed head Bernanke’s speech could set the tone for dollar trading this week, but these events are scheduled for tomorrow. For today, only a few speeches from some finance officials and Fed members are on tap. If these officials talk about the urgency of withdrawing monetary policy stimulus as early as June, the dollar could resume its recent rallies.

EUR

The euro has recovered some of its recent losses against the US dollar, as EUR/USD has pulled up to the 1.2900 major psychological level. European banks were on a holiday yesterday, which explains the careful trading of euro pairs, and we might see more of the same today. There are no major events on the euro zone calendar, as the only economic release is the German PPI figure.

GBP

Cable is fighting to stay above the 1.5250 minor psychological level as the pound managed to rebound against the dollar in the past few trading sessions. UK CPI data are set for release today and this should show if the BOE has scope to loosen up monetary policy. Although the BOE isn’t looking to do so anytime soon, as the British economy has recently shown signs of life, weak inflation could still spur the central bank to pump up liquidity in the system. The annual inflation reading is projected to fall from 2.8% to 2.6% in April.

CHF

The Swiss franc has been holding its ground against the US dollar so far this week, as USD/CHF reached resistance near the .9700 major psychological level. There are no major catalysts on Switzerland’s schedule for today, which suggests that the pair could maintain its current levels as traders await for more signs from the markets.

JPY

The Japanese government recently upgraded its growth forecasts, citing a rebound in exports and domestic economic activity. This was enough to keep USD/JPY trading below the 103.00 major psychological resistance this week. Yen traders might be feeling a little more cautious today, as the BOJ is gearing up for its monetary policy decision in tomorrow’s Asian session.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, CAD, NZD)

Commodity currencies are currently stalling at key inflection points, with USD/CAD finding resistance at 1.0300 and AUD/USD perched at the 0.9750 support area. NZD/USD seems to be breaking off its recent selloff as well, with the pair retesting the .8200 major psychological level. The RBA just released the minutes of its latest monetary policy meeting wherein they decided to slash interest rates by 0.25%. However, the minutes didn’t provide any clues as to whether the central bank will ease again, which explains why AUD/USD is staging a relief rally after the release. BOC Governor Carney is set to give a speech in today’s US session and this could determine if USD/CAD makes a bounce and retests 1.0300.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way