Daily Market Report by GulfBrokers 2020-2021

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The Japanese Yen remains one of the strongest currency pairs of this week. USD/JPY fell 3% to its 4-month-low on Tuesday following the Bank of Japan expanded its band on yield curve control to 0.50%. As of this writing, USDJPY trades below 132.50. The strong momentum lifted after the Bank of Japan surprised markets Tuesday morning by increasing the upper limit of its tolerance band on 10-year government bonds to 0.5% from 0.25%. The central bank also kept its ultra-low benchmark interest rates unchanged, as widely expected.

“Through these steps, the BOJ will aim to achieve its price target by enhancing the sustainability of monetary easing under this framework,” BOJ said in a statement.

EQUITIES

Global stocks and US futures remain under pressure. The strong bearish momentum is fueled by the enduring pressure from expectations of an aggressive interest rate hike from the European Central Bank and Federal Reserve. Investors are also concerned that the central bank's aggressive rate hikes may lead to a recession. "Based on the information that we have available today, that predicates another 50 basis point rise at our next meeting and possibly at the one after that, and possibly thereafter.” - Lagarde said last week.

OIL

Crude oil futures hold steady while the upside momentum is limited due to the Covid cases rising rapidly in China. Moving ahead, global cues such as the FED's hawkish stance, trends in dollar strength and US crude inventory report are expected to drive investors' sentiments in the remaining days of this week.

CURRENCIES

In the currency market, the U.S. Dollar Currency Index tracks the greenback against six major currencies struggling to find the upside momentum. Meanwhile, EURUSD hovers near the session highs supported by hawkish comments from European Central Bank policymaker Peter Kazimir. The inflation outlook requires the European Central Bank to continue with its strong policy response, and interest rates will need to go into "restrictive" territory and stay there longer - Peter Kazimir said.

GOLD

The precious metal climbs to a fresh weekly high of $1807 on Tuesday boosted by the weak US dollar. Moving ahead to the North American session, gold traders should closely monitor the release of US housing data.

Economic Outlook

On the data front, the Reserve Bank of Australia released the last meeting minutes on Tuesday Morning. "Members emphasised that the Board's priority is to re-establish low inflation and return inflation to the 2 to 3 per cent target over time." – the minutes said.

Moving ahead today, the important events to watch:

US – Building permits and housing starts: GMT – 13.30

Canada – Retail sales: GMT – 13.30

Coronavirus update:

Worldwide, more than 653 million people have been confirmed infected and more than 6.66 million have died. The United States has confirmed over 99.8 million cases and has had more than 1.08 million deaths from COVID-19, the highest total in the world.

Technical Outlook and Review

EURUSD:
For today, the key resistance is located above 1.0670, a break above this level will confirm a possible move to 1.0700/30. On the downside, any meaningful pullback now seems to find some support near the 1.0600 and 1.0570 zones.



The important levels to watch for today: Support- 1.0600 and 1.0570 Resistance- 1.0670 and 1.0700.

GOLD: The metal rebounded back to above 1805 during the European session. For today, the next resistance is located around 1810, a break above this level will confirm a possible move to 1818/20. On the flip side, any break below 1800 then the next support near 1795 followed by the 1790 level.



The important levels to watch for today: Support- 1800 and 1790 Resistance- 1810 and 1818.

Quote of the day - If your goal is to trade like a professional and be a consistent winner, then you must start from the premise that the solutions are in your mind and not in the market. Mark Douglas.

Read more - https://gulfbrokers.com/en/daily-market-report-591
 
Shares of one of the most recognizable athletic brands worldwide Nike (NYSE: NKE) rose more than 12% in extended trading on Thursday after the company reported better-than-expected last quarter financial results. During the last quarter, Nike's total revenues surged 17% to $13.3 billion, Footwear sales were up 25% to $8.50B, while apparel sales rose 4% to $3.8B.

  • Earnings per share (EPS): $0.85 vs. $0.64 expected
  • Revenue: $13.32 billion vs. $12.58 billion expected
“Our growth was broad-based and was driven by our expanding digital leadership and brand strength. These results give us confidence in delivering the year as our competitive advantages continue to fuel our momentum,” NIKE CEO, John Donahoe said.

EQUITIES

US stock futures holding the previous session gains supported by robust earnings results. However, the overall momentum remains mixed after the stock indexes experienced a sharp slide in the last two of weeks. Moving ahead to the North American session, the investors should closely monitor the release of US consumer confidence data.

OIL

Crude oil futures hold the weekly gains ahead of the EIA inventory report. Meanwhile, the latest API crude inventory data showed that US crude inventories declined by 3.1 million barrels last week, compared to the prior week's 7.8-million-barrel build-up.

CURRENCIES

In the currency market, the dollar index, which tracks the currency against key rivals remains under pressure. However, considering the recently strong bearish momentum, the greenback is trading near the critical demand zone on the weekly time frame. On the other hand, the British pound struggling to regain momentum against the Euro and USD.

GOLD

The precious metal hits a fresh weekly high of $1820 on Tuesday. While the metal struggled to find further upside momentum and saw some profit-taking after reaching the near the 1820 mark. For today, the main drivers for the metal will be the US economic data and the US dollar movement.

Economic Outlook

On the data front, the US released the latest US housing starts and building permits data on Tuesday. The US housing starts came in at 1.427 million versus expectations of 1.4 million while the U.S. Building Permits missed expectations, with a print of 1.342 million compared to the forecast of 1.485 million.

Moving ahead today, the important events to watch:

Canada – CPI: GMT – 13.30

US – Consumer Confidence: GMT – 15.00

US – Existing home sales: GMT – 15.00

Coronavirus update:

Worldwide, more than 653 million people have been confirmed infected and more than 6.66 million have died. The United States has confirmed over 99.8 million cases and has had more than 1.08 million deaths from COVID-19, the highest total in the world.

Technical Outlook and Review

EURUSD:
The currency pair needs to stay above 1.0600; otherwise. 1.0540/00 may be visible soon. On the upper side, 1.0670 is the key resistance zones to watch, if the pair breaks and closes above this area then the next resistance area to watch is around 1.0700 and 1.0730.



The important levels to watch for today: Support- 1.0600 and 1.0540 Resistance- 1.0670 and 1.0710.

GOLD: If the metal break and closes below 1805, will head towards the next support level which is located near 1800 and 1790. On the upper side, 1820 remains the key resistance to watch.



The important levels to watch for today: Support- 1810 and 1805 Resistance- 1820 and 1826.

Quote of the day - Think for yourself and don’t let the market direct you. Security prices sometimes fluctuate, not based on any apparent change in reality, but on changes in investor perception- Seth Klarman.

Read more - https://gulfbrokers.com/en/daily-market-report-592
 
Today the market participant's investors are now turning their eye to the release of US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the third quarter data today. The GDP is expected to confirm 2.9% Annualized growth in the third quarter. The GDP figures are one of the Fed's thermometers for gauging the health of the US economy.

Meanwhile, the UK released the third quarter GDP data. The UK GDP fell 0.3% between July and September, a downward revision from the first estimate of a fall of 0.2%.

EQUITIES

US stock futures hold weekly gains on Thursday morning. The recent sentiment was lifted by stronger-than-expected US consumer confidence data and Positive earnings from Nike and FedEx (NYSE: FDX).

OIL

Crude oil futures extended the gains on Thursday morning boosted by the decline in US crude inventory. The latest EIA data showed the US crude oil inventories fell by 5.89 million barrels last week, much more than market expectations of a 1.66-million-barrel decrease.

CURRENCIES

In the currency market, the US dollar Index hovers near the weekly lows ahead of the USD GDP data while commodity-linked currencies such as the Canadian and Australian dollars gained to support the higher commodity prices. Meanwhile, the Euro holding the gains against the US dollar lifted by strong macroeconomic data from Germany and Eurozone.

GOLD

The precious metal climbed back to 1820 on Thursday morning on dollar weakness. As of the writing, the metal retreats back to below $1815 and the further direction will depend on US GDP figures which will release later today.

Economic Outlook

On the data front, the Commerce Department released the latest U.S. consumer confidence data on Wednesday. The data showed the Consumer Confidence Index increased to 108.3 in December from 101.4 in November.

Moving ahead today, the important events to watch:

US – GDP: GMT – 13.30

US – Jobless claims: GMT – 13.30

Coronavirus update:

Worldwide, more than 653 million people have been confirmed infected and more than 6.66 million have died. The United States has confirmed over 99.8 million cases and has had more than 1.08 million deaths from COVID-19, the highest total in the world.

Technical Outlook and Review

EURUSD:
In the short-term perceptive, the immediate bias will remain bullish as long as prices exceed 1.0570. On the flip side, any break below 1.0570 then the next support near 1.0550 followed by the 1.0500 level.



The important levels to watch for today: Support- 1.0600 and 1.0550 Resistance- 1.0670 and 1.0710.

GOLD: The yellow metal hovers above the $1815 area. If the bullish momentum continues the next upside levels to watch are $1823 and $1826. On the downside side, $1810 is a crucial support area to watch for today.



The important levels to watch for today: Support- 1810 and 1806 Resistance- 1820 and 1826.

Quote of the day - Everybody has some information. The function of the markets is to aggregate that information, evaluate it, and get it incorporated into prices - Merton Miller.

Read more - https://gulfbrokers.com/en/daily-market-report-593
 
The Euro extends the rally further against the British pound and manages well to finally break above the key barrier at 0.8800 on Thursday amid GBP weakness. EURGBP has moved to a fresh 6-week high of 0.8824, as the British pound comes back under selling pressure towards the 1.2000 level after the release of UK GDP data.

The UK releases the Final GDP for Q3 on Thursday Morning. The British economy contracted 0.3% in the quarter in the three months to September of 2022, slightly more than a preliminary estimate of a 0.2% drop.

The British Pound struggling to settle above the 1.2100 zone against the US Dollar. The GBP/USD pair started a fresh decline below the 1.2050 support zone. On the other hand, Euro remains steady, and ECB's hawkish announcements and strong Ifo Business Climate Index figures pushed the euro higher. The German IFO business climate index improved to 88.6 points in December from a revised 86.4 in November.

Last week, the BoE and ECB both hiked by the same increments at the final rate decision of the year. The European Central Bank and the Bank of England each increased by 50 basis points. ECB surprised the market with hawkish guidance while BOE delivered a downbeat outlook for the UK economy.

Moving ahead to the last days of this year investors and traders have become increasingly concerned about the UK’s economic health going forward. Apart from downbeat GDP data, the UK also reported weak consumer confidence and retail sales data, which added to concerns that the country is heading for a deep recession.

EURGBP short-term technical outlook

Technically the overall momentum remains bullish. As of this writing, the currency pair is testing the previous month's high of 0.8824. The next major resistance for the bulls is near the 0.8860/70 level. On the downside, any meaningful pullback now seems to find some support near the 0.8790/60 zones, below which the slide could further get extended towards the 0.8740/10 region.

Read more - https://gulfbrokers.com/en/eurgbp-extends-rally-breaks-above-08800
 
Global markets including currencies, commodities, stocks, and precious metal price movement are seen as cautious due to the thin trading volumes and absence of any major economic data. On Monday, most markets including Wall Street were closed to observe the Christmas holiday. Markets in the UK, Australia and New Zealand will remain closed on Tuesday to mark the Christmas and Boxing Day holidays.

Global stocks and US stock futures started the new week on a stable note as investors are still waiting on that Santa Claus Rally. Gold and Silver prices regained some upside momentum as investors opted for the safe-haven asset ahead of the New Year holidays. Crude oil futures rose Tuesday morning while investors struggle to find real direction due to thin volumes. However, commodities and precious metals are expected to be unstable over the festive period as the end of the transition period approaches on New Year’s Eve.

The king dollar ceded ground in Asia on Tuesday with greenback bulls still struggling to find strong upside momentum. The EURUSD rebounded back to above 1.0660 after the currency pair found strong buyers near the key support area of 1.0570. Moving ahead, no important economic events are expected from the Eurozone this week, so the US dollar movement will continue to play a vital role in the Euro's future direction.

Read more here - https://gulfbrokers.com/en/global-markets-muted-due-to-thin-trading-volumes
 
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