Daily Market Report by GulfBrokers 2020-2021

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Crude oil prices rallied more than 55% in 2021 driven by the world economic recovery and supply-side issues. During the last week, the oil prices ended higher supported by supply disruptions from Libya and larger than expected falls in US crude inventories. However, the gains are limited as the Covid-19 surges worldwide due to the Omicron variant.

On Monday, oil futures started the first week of 2022 on a positive note. The upside momentum boosted after Libya announced on Saturday to cut its production by 200,000 barrels a day for a week because of a damaged pipeline. Meanwhile, the workers are now trying to fix the damaged oil pipeline.

Moving ahead the traders of US and Brent oil are now focusing on the meeting of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) later this week. The Meeting is scheduled for tomorrow, 4 January. The market participants expect the OPEC+ is expected to stick with its planned output of 400,000 barrels per day.

Saudi Arabia's King Salman said last week the OPEC+ production agreement was needed for oil market stability and that producers must comply with the pact.

WTI weekly technical forecast

In the short-term perceptive, the immediate bias will remain bullish if prices are held above 70.00. On the downside, the first nearest support level is located at $75.00. In case if it breaks below this level, it will head towards the next support level which is located at near $74.00 then $73.60. On the flip side, the immediate resistance is seen at $76.50 any break above this level will open $77.00/50 minimum.

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In the long term, watch for the weekly close below $70.00 or above $79.00, which will give a larger confirmation of direction in the long term.

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Trading is risky and your entire investment may be at risk. Please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved.

Read more- https://gulfbrokers.com/en/us-oil-bulls-hold-steady-amid-omicron-spread
 
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Global stocks and Wall Street reached a new record high on the first trading day of the new year despite a rise in Covid-19 cases. The strong bullish trend continues on Tuesday supported by the crude oil price rally and better-than-expected economic data.

EQUITIES

US stock futures extend higher on Tuesday. S&P 500 rose 0.6% and the Dow finished 0.7% higher on Monday driven by tech and banking stocks rally. Meanwhile, stocks were mixed in Asia on Tuesday after a broad rally on Wall Street as investors kept an eye on the spread of the omicron variant.

OIL

Crude oil prices unchanged ahead of the OPEC+ decision scheduled for later today. The OPEC JMMC meeting is expected to start at 13:00 Vienna time followed by the OPEC+ meeting at 14:00.

CURRENCIES

In the currency market, the U.S. Dollar Currency Index, which measures the greenback against a basket of six currencies rose against the broad range of currencies on Monday. While the Index trades flat on Tuesday. Moving ahead to the North American session, the USD investors should closely monitor the US releases ISM Manufacturing PMI and JOLTS Jobs Openings data.

GOLD

The safe-haven metal remains under pressure for the second consecutive day. On Monday, the metal plunged to below $1800 due to the strengthening of the dollar and higher yields.

Economic Outlook

On the data front, the German unemployment rate fell to 5.2 percent in December 2021, from 5.3 percent in the previous month. German Retail sales grew 0.6% in November of 2021, compared to the market forecasts of a 0.5% drop.

Moving ahead today, the important events to watch:

US – ISM manufacturing PMI: GMT – 15.00

US –JOLTS job openings: GMT – 15.00

Coronavirus update:

Worldwide, more than 292 million people have been confirmed infected and more than 5.44 million have died. The United States has confirmed over 56 million cases and has had more than 827,000 deaths from COVID-19, the highest totals in the world.

Technical Outlook

EURUSD:
Technically the overall momentum remains mixed, the immediate support for the Euro stands near the level of 1.1270. On the flip side, the first resistance at 1.1340 any break above this level will open 1.1385 minimum.

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The important levels to watch for today: Support- 1.1270 and 1.1250 Resistance- 1.1345 and 1.1380.

GOLD: The precious metal slightly rebounded. At the time of writing, the metal trades above $1805 with immediate support near the $1,797. On the flip side, the key resistance area to watch is $1815.

gold neww


The important levels to watch for today: Support- 1797 and 1790 Resistance- 1810 and 1815.

Quote of the day - “The stock market is the story of cycles and of the human behaviour that is responsible for overreactions in both directions.” – Seth Klarman.

Read more- https://gulfbrokers.com/en/daily-market-report-426
 
EURUSD slightly recovered from the early losses following the release of strong German retail sales and employment data.

Technically the overall momentum remains mixed, the immediate support for the Euro stands near the level of 1.1270 then 1.1250. On the flip side, the first resistance at 1.1340 any break above this level will open 1.1385 minimum.

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The electric-car maker Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) stock started the new year on a strong bullish note. Tesla’s market valuation once again jumped back above $1 trillion and Tesla CEO Elon Musk fortune increased by $33.8 billion to $304.2 billion.

Tesla shares gained more than 13% on Monday after the company set a record for electric vehicle deliveries in Q4 of 2021. The stock reached a record high of $1243 in November 2021. Tesla’s strong delivery volume in the last quarter came from Model 3 and Model Y vehicles.

The world's most valuable automaker delivered more than 936,000 cars of all models in 2021, an increase of 87% over the previous year. In the fourth quarter alone, the company delivered more than 308,000 vehicles, an increase of 71% from the previous year’s quarter. It was the sixth quarter in a row that the company posted record deliveries.

“In 2021, we delivered over 936,000 vehicles. Thank you to all of our customers, employees, suppliers, shareholders and supporters who helped us achieve a great year,” Tesla said in a statement.

check out the original article here- https://gulfbrokers.com/en/tesla-kicks-off-2022-with-solid-gains
 
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The Dow Jones plunged almost 600 points. The bearish sentiment was driven by the Federal Reserve’s December meeting minutes. The Fed officials expressed interest in hiking rates soon on account of the tightening in the US labor market.

"Participants generally noted that, given their individual outlooks for the economy, the labor market, and inflation, it may become warranted to increase the federal funds rate sooner or at a faster pace than participants had earlier anticipated," the FOMC meeting minutes said.

Technically, the overall momentum remains bearish after the early session sell-off. In the short term, if the bearish momentum continues the next downside levels to watch 36,200/00 then 35,900/650. On the upper side, the first immediate resistance is around 36,550 and then 36,700.

EQUITIES

Stock markets just about everywhere sold off on Thursday morning session following the release of FOMC meeting minutes. The US stock futures slightly recovered on Thursday while the momentum is expected to be negative for a while as the FED revealed its plans to increase interest rates sooner than expected.

OIL

Crude oil futures rebounded from the early losses. On Wednesday, the oil prices settled lower following the release of weak EIA crude inventory data and equity market sell-off. The EIA data showed the weekly crude inventories declined by 2.1 million barrels.

CURRENCIES

In the currency market, the EURUSD attempted to bounce on Wednesday, but it failed to extend above the key resistance area 1.1345. At the time of writing, the currency pair trades below 1.1300. The US dollar index slightly rebounded from the previous session low of 95.90 to almost the session high of 96.35.

GOLD

The safe-haven metal remains under pressure after the FOMC minutes indicating that the central bank is likely to raise interest rates sooner than predicted.

Economic Outlook

On the data front, US ADP employment data came stronger than expected. ADP private payroll numbers for December, some 807,000 jobs were added compared to estimates of a figure of 410,000.

Moving ahead today, the important events to watch:

US – Initial jobless claims: GMT – 13.30

US –ISM services PMI: GMT – 15.00

Coronavirus update:

Worldwide, more than 295 million people have been confirmed infected and more than 5.44 million have died. The United States has confirmed over 57 million cases and has had more than 831,000 deaths from COVID-19, the highest totals in the world.

Technical Outlook and Review

EURUSD:
The currency rebounded back to above 1.1300. However, Bulls will need to regain the 1.1345 level if they want to continue their ascent towards 1.1385.

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The important levels to watch for today: Support- 1.1280 and 1.1260 Resistance- 1.1345 and 1.1390.

GOLD: For today, the first nearest support level is located at $1789. In case if it breaks below this level, it will head towards the next support level which is located at near $1784 then $1780. On the flip side, the immediate resistance at $1800 then $1810.

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The important levels to watch for today: Support- 1789 and 1780 Resistance- 1800 and 1810.

Quote of the day - Good traders manage the downside; they don’t worry about the upside- Mark Minervini.

Read more- https://gulfbrokers.com/en/daily-market-report-428
 
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The US dollar index, which tracks the U.S. currency against six major peers, is trading slightly lower as the NFP job numbers are awaited later today. According to the market expectation, Nonfarm Payroll (NFP) is expected to rise from 210K to 400K while the Unemployment Rate may have eased to 4.1% from 4.2% prior.

EQUITIES

US stock futures struggling to find the upside momentum ahead of US jobs reports after the hawkish Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting Minutes. The bearish sentiment also driven by the global number of new coronavirus cases increased sharply by 71 per cent as compared to the previous week.

OIL

Crude oil futures are on track to end the week on a positive note. Both WTI and Brent oil futures reached a fresh weekly high on Friday boosted by the strong crude oil inventory data and the recent OPEC meeting outcome.

CURRENCIES

In the currency market, the risk-linked currencies like the Australian and New Zealand dollar remained under pressure against the US dollar. On Thursday, the greenback ignored the weaker-than-expected US jobless claims and ISM services PMI data.

GOLD

The safe-haven metal trades below $1790 on Friday weighed down by the strong US dollar. The data to come later today on US payroll numbers could prove key to determining the next moves.

Economic Outlook

On the data front, U.S. labor market data showed weekly initial jobless claims rose by 7,000 to a seasonally adjusted 207,000, slightly above the 197,000 forecasts. Meanwhile, the ISM Services PMI fell to 62 in December from a record high of 69.1 in November, well below market forecasts of 66.9.

Moving ahead today, the important events to watch:

US – Nonfarm payrolls: GMT – 13.30

Canada – Employment report: GMT – 13.30

Coronavirus update:

Worldwide, more than 295 million people have been confirmed infected and more than 5.44 million have died. The United States has confirmed over 57 million cases and has had more than 831,000 deaths from COVID-19, the highest totals in the world.

Technical Outlook and Review

EURUSD:
In the short term, if the pair breaks above 1.1345 which would open doors towards the next resistance area of 1.1385 and above that 1.1420 is next. On the downside, the immediate support is near 1.1270, and a further breakout below this area could lead the pair towards the next support level of 1.1240/20.

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The important levels to watch for today: Support- 1.1270 and 1.1220 Resistance- 1.1345 and 1.1400.

GOLD: Technically the overall momentum remains bearish. For today, the key support area is around $1765. On the upper side, the short-term resistance at $1800 any break above this level will open $1806 then $1810/14.

gold neww


The important levels to watch for today: Support- 1782 and 1770 Resistance- 1800 and 1806.

Quote of the day - “The trick is not to learn to trust your gut feelings, but rather to discipline yourself to ignore them. Stand by your stocks as long as the fundamental story of the company hasn’t changed.” ― Peter Lynch.

Read more- https://gulfbrokers.com/en/daily-market-report-429
 
US NFP data is due to release after 2 hours. Volatility in the markets is expected to be high.

Carefully watch the below levels

EURUSD 1.1270 and 1.1350
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Gold 1780 and 1806
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USDJPY 115.60 and 116.10
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Dow Jones 36,050 and 36,700
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Global markets ended mixed last week due to the latest FED meeting minutes indicating that the central bank could tighten monetary policy more aggressively than anticipated and the rapid spread of the coronavirus Omicron variant. The Omicron Covid-19 variant maybe 105 per cent more transmissible than Delta, according to a research by French scientists.

This week the coronavirus fears will dominate the market sentiment once again. On the other hand, the inventors anxiously awaiting the latest US and China inflation numbers, which is set to be released on Wednesday.

On the earnings front, the companies due to release their results will be the banking giants JPMORGAN, CITI, WELLS FARGO and the airline stock DELTA AIRLINES will be among those reporting earnings this week.

GOLD

The precious metal continues its range-bound trading as it struggles to find momentum and any real direction. Meanwhile, the overall momentum remained bearish. On Friday, the metal slightly rebounded from the weekly lows after the USD gives back some of the gains. This week the main drivers for the precious metal remain the movement of the US dollar, US CPI and the rising omicron cases.

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In the short term, if the metal break above $1800 which would open doors towards the next resistance area of $1806 and above that $1810/12 is next. On the downside, the immediate support is near $1780, and a further breakout below this area could lead the pair towards the next support level of $1772/65.

DOLLAR INDEX

The Greenback, in terms of the US Dollar Index (DXY), corrected lower this past week driven by the FOMC meeting minutes and weaker-than-expected US NFP figures. Moving ahead, the future direction of the USD will depend on the Inflation report which will release on Wednesday.

DXY


This week, DXY needs to stay above 96.40; otherwise. 95.50/20 may be visible soon. On the upper side, 96.40/50 the key resistance zones to watch, if the pair breaks and close above this area then the next resistance level to watch is around 96.90/97.10.

EURUSD

The currency pair closed above 1.1350 last week following the poor NFP data reported in the United States on Friday. The main attraction for the EURO this week, the Eurozone unemployment rate and ECB policymakers speech.

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The expected trading range for the pair this week is between 1.1220 support and 1.1460 resistance. This week, 1.1300 is the immediate support level, followed by the 1.1270 crucial support. If the pair breaks below the 1.1270, the slump will quickly extend toward the 1.1220 marks. On the other upper side, the immediate resistance at 1.1385 and any break above this will open the doors to 1.1400/30.

DOW JONES

Dow Jones ended the first week of 2022 in the negative territory driven by the comments from FED policymakers. The downticks in the index were further bolstered after the release of the weaker-than-expected US jobs report. Moving ahead, Dow is expected to remain under pressure this week by rising inflation and spreading the omicron variant virus as investors reduce their risk exposure.

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Technically the overall momentum remained bearish for the Index after the bulls failed to extend the rally. In the short term, if the index breaks below 36,050 which would open doors towards 35,900 then 35,650. On the upper side, the first immediate resistance is around 36,550 and then 36,700.

Read more- https://gulfbrokers.com/en/weekly-analysis-gold-usd-eurusd-and-dow-jones-20
 
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