Daily Market Report

[FOREX.com]

USD/JPY surges towards ‘that high’ post BOJ: Asian Open – 1/11/2023​

Market Summary:​

• Druckenmiller has become the latest prominent trader to announce a bullish bet on the bond market, telling a conference last week that he has a “massive” position on the 2-year note due to his concerns for the economy. This follows on from Bill Ackman announcing his closer of his short bond bet and Bill Gross bullish outlook on bonds.
• Regardless, US bond yields continued to rise across the yield curve, helping the USD retain its spot as the strongest forex major on Tuesday while JPY, CHF and AUD were the weakest.
• Inflation data from Germany, France and the eurozone came in softer than expected, as did GDP for the eurozone at -0.1% q/q and just 0.1% y/y
• This bolstered bets that the ECB are done with hiking rates and, dare we say, closer to a recession and therefore the potential for rate cuts (as far off as they may seem)
• EUR/USD revered all of its earlier gains of the day after initially rising towards last week’s high, in line with yesterday’s bias. With US yields and the dollar rising, I’m now on guard for a break lower.
• AUD/USD continues to prattle around between 63c-64c, serving as a reminder that dips looks appealing near the low of the range and for profits to be booked nearer to the top. It remains difficult to be bullish yet at the same time difficult to write if off, given AUD/USD continues to hold above 63c despite negative headlines that should really sink it.
• Wall Street fell for a third consecutive month in October, although it managed to rally for a second consecutive day heading into month end. A reasonable assumption is the ‘rally’ is due to month-end flows and that bears on the sidelines are waiting for more favourable prices to fade into.
• The Bank of Japan tweaked their YCC slightly by further loosening its grip on the 1% band of their 10-year JGB, upping inflation forecasts and removing daily fixed-rate bond purchase operations. But the fact that USD/JPY rallied over 1.8% suggests traders were expecting their BOJ to abandon YCC altogether. Still, with such a rise into the infamous 2022 high, we could suspect the BOJ have their finger hovering over the intervention button.
• The RBNZ’s semi-annual financial stability report said it expected debt servicing costs for households and businesses to continue rising over the next year, and that the full impact of rate hikes are yet to be seen. This further solidifies the case that the central bank has reached its peak rate of the cycle.

Events in focus (AEDT):​

• 08:45 – New Zealand employment
• 11:30 – Australian building approvals
• 11:30 – South Korea manufacturing PMI, trade
• 12:45 – China manufacturing PMI (Caixin)
• 23:15 – ADP nonfarm payroll
• 00:45 – ISM manufacturing PMI
• 05:00 – FOMC interest rate decision, statement
• 05:30 – FOMC press conference

ASX 200 at a glance:​

• The ASX 200 tracked Wall Street lower for a third month, with October being the most bearish month of the three
• 10 of its 11 sectors declined, led by industrials and info tech whilst utilities were the only sector to post a modest gain
• Yet the ASX 200 posted a small bullish inside day on Tuesday and SPI 200 futures closed 0.5% higher, pointing towards a positive open for the cash index today and a potential cycle low around 6750
• Should we see a countertrend move, 6900 remains a key level of resistance that bears may struggle to resist fading into without a broad risk-on rally to support it

USD/JPY technical analysis (daily chart):​

Tuesday was the best day for USD/JPY in eight months for USD/JPY, which is now pips away from testing 'that' infamous October 2022 high - when the BOJ intervened. So yes, we're on the lookout for intervention. But just how much volatility is the BOJ looking for before pulling the trigger? Yesterday's high-low range was ~50% of the October 2022 high, so as bullish as it looked initially - perhaps we'd need to see another day or two of bullish trade before intervention occurs, over simply looking at the 152 area. But we also know the market is watching 152 high, so at the very least I’d expect some volatility around these highs as the markets does its thing. Either way, USD/JPY remains a key level to watch.

​

View the full economic calendar
The information on this web site is not targeted at the general public of any particular country. It is not intended for distribution to residents in any country where such distribution or use would contravene any local law or regulatory requirement. The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.

Futures, Options on Futures, Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Losses can exceed your deposits. Increasing leverage increases risk. Spot Gold and Silver contracts are not subject to regulation under the U.S. Commodity Exchange Act. Contracts for Difference (CFDs) are not available for US residents. Before deciding to trade forex, commodity futures, or digital assets, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained herein is intended as general information about the subject matter covered and is provided with the understanding that we do not provide any investment, legal, or tax advice. You should consult with appropriate counsel or other advisors on all investment, legal, or tax matters. References to FOREX.com or GAIN Capital refer to StoneX Group Inc. and its subsidiaries. Please read Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options.

 

[FOREX.com]

AUD/USD on verge of breakout? ASX 200 perk up: Asian Open – 2 Nov 2023​

Market Summary:​

• The Fed left interest rates, tipped their hat to a strong economy and left the door open to a further hike. All of which was widely expected. However, markets took more notice of Powell’s comments that the Fed have “come far”.
• The ISM manufacturing report also shows the sector contracted faster than expected, falling to 46.7 from 49 previously (below 50 denotes contraction). New orders, process paid and employment also contracted to point to a rare weak sept in the economy. If this is backed up by a weaker ISM services report it further backs up a case for the Fed being done with hikes.
• Fed fund futures continue to imply the current target rate range 5.25-5.5% is the terminal rate, and the odds of a hold in December have risen to 80.12% compared with 68.9% the day prior and odds of a January hike fell to 26% compared to 34.6% the day prior.
• US bond yields from the 2-month to the 30-year were all lower by Wednesday’s close, with the 2-year and above retracing over 10bp and bond prices rose
• This allowed Wall Street to rise for a third day with the Nasdaq 100 taking the lead with its 1.8% gain
• Gold closed the day flat but its lower wick hints at support around 1970 over the near-term. But we may find that gold prices remain trapped in the broader 1950 – 2000 range over the foreseeable future.
• New Zealand’s unemployment rate rose to 3.9% q/q, adding further conviction to calls that the RBNZ have reached their terminal rate of the tightening cycle
• Australian building approvals contracted -4.6% in September, although it is a notoriously volatile number at the best of times. The annual rate was -7.1% lower

Read AUD monthly wrap: November 2023 for a broader overview of the Australian dollar

Events in focus (AEDT):​

• 10:50 – Japan’s foreign bond/stock purchases, monetary base y/y
• 11:30 – Australian housing finance, trade balance
• 18:30 – Swiss CPI
• 22:30 – Challenger job cuts
• 23:00 – BOE interest rate decision, MPC votes
• 23:30 – US jobless claims, unit labour costs
• 01:00 – US durable goods orders
• 01:15 – BOE governor Bailey speaks

ASX 200 at a glance:​

• The ASX 200 cash index enjoyed its best daily performance in three weeks on Wednesday to provide further evidence an important swing low may have formed on Monday
• 9 of the 11 ASX sectors rose on Wednesday, led by real estate and healthcare sectors
• A fly in the ointment for any runaway rally may be a hawkish RBA on Tuesday, but that could still allow the ASX time to extend a countertrend move heading into the weekend – assuming Wall Street and APAC stocks extend their gains
• Furthermore, its rally stalled around a key area of resistance including the 6900 handle, 20-day EMA and 50% retracement level
• It therefore may require a strong response from APAC stocks for the ASX to get swept away and produce a solid break of daily close above this level, or risks choppy trade around resistance
• Given the multi-week bullish divergence, an eventual upside break is the bias
• Yet with the RSI (2) in overbought with prices beneath a resistance zone, perhaps a pullback could help with a better-timed dip to consider around a lower support level
• In either case, I suspect 7,000 may also provide strong resistance

AUD/USD technical analysis (daily chart):​

I have repeatedly noted the ability for AUD/USD to defy bears a sustainable break beneath 63c. And with a bullish divergence forming on the RSI (14) and more recently the RSI (2), I have been seeking dips towards 63c and for moves towards 64c. However, Wednesday’s bullish engulfing candle shows a change in sentiment within that range and suggests a break could be pending. The engulfing candle closed at the high of the day, just beneath the 64c handle and 50-day EMA. So it seems to be more of a question as to whether we’ll see a direct break higher, or initial pullback within range (to satisfy dip buyers) ahead of the expected break. Of course, a weaker US dollar and bond yields would help with any such break, and a hawkish RBA and refreshing bout of improved data from China could help extend any such rally from these cycle lows.

View the full economic calendar


The information on this web site is not targeted at the general public of any particular country. It is not intended for distribution to residents in any country where such distribution or use would contravene any local law or regulatory requirement. The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.

Futures, Options on Futures, Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Losses can exceed your deposits. Increasing leverage increases risk. Spot Gold and Silver contracts are not subject to regulation under the U.S. Commodity Exchange Act. Contracts for Difference (CFDs) are not available for US residents. Before deciding to trade forex, commodity futures, or digital assets, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained herein is intended as general information about the subject matter covered and is provided with the understanding that we do not provide any investment, legal, or tax advice. You should consult with appropriate counsel or other advisors on all investment, legal, or tax matters. References to FOREX.com or GAIN Capital refer to StoneX Group Inc. and its subsidiaries. Please read Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options.

 

[FOREX.com]

AUD/USD looks comfy above 64c, as does WTI above $80: Asian Open Nov 3rd 2023​

Market Summary:​

• Wall Street rallied for a fourth day which saw the S&P 500 enjoy its best day in six months
• A rise in iPhone sales offset falls in Mac and iPads help Apple beat quarterly earnings expectations, which saw the stock rise % on Thursday yet trade -1.3% lower during afterhours-trade
• The BOE held their interest rate steady for a second month at 5%, although kept the door open for further hikes if price pressures persisted. However, three voted to hike – above the 2 expected, so the hold was not quite as dovish as expected. And not that they needed to, but the BOE ruled out quick cuts.
• This places them in line with the Fed and ECB with being in pause mode yet not ready to declare a peak cycle (even if markets strongly suspect all three have reached their terminal rates)
• The mid to higher end of the US yield curve continued to retrace on Thursday and the US dollar was again the weakest FX major
• The US dollar index closed at a 2-day low although saw a 7-day intraday low. Price action now remains contained within a choppy sideways range between the 105.50 – 107 area, and with the Jan and March lows nearby for potential support, it likely caps any runaway gains for EUR/USD
• For this reason, I suspect traders may be best seeking intraday setups across forex major and not looking for oversized moves without a macro catalyst
• With that said, the Canadian surged against the US dollar which saw USD/CAD suffer its worst day in four months.
• AUD/USD rose initially rose to a 24-day high before pulling back below 0.6450, but with a clear break above 0.64 the pair remains in my ‘buy the dip’ watchlist for a potential move to 0.6500

Events in focus (AEDT):​

• Public holiday in Japan
• 09:00 – Australian services PMI
• 09:30 – ECB’s Schnabel speaks
• 10:50 – RBA assistant governor Jones speaks
• 11:30 – Australian retail sales (revised)
• 12:45 – China manufacturing PMI (Caixin)
• 16:00 – Singapore retail sales
• 18:00 – German trade balance
• 23:30 – Nonfarm payroll

ASX 200 at a glance:​

• The ASX 200 cash index enjoyed its best daily performance in three weeks on Wednesday to provide further evidence an important swing low may have formed on Monday
• 9 of the 11 ASX sectors rose on Wednesday, led by real estate and healthcare sectors
• A fly in the ointment for any runaway rally may be a hawkish RBA on Tuesday, but that could still allow the ASX time to extend a countertrend move heading into the weekend – assuming Wall Street and APAC stocks extend their gains
• Furthermore, its rally stalled around a key area of resistance including the 6900 handle, 20-day EMA and 50% retracement level
• It therefore may require a strong response from APAC stocks for the ASX to get swept away and produce a solid break of daily close above this level, or risks choppy trade around resistance
• Given the multi-week bullish divergence, an eventual upside break is the bias
• Yet with the RSI (2) in overbought with prices beneath a resistance zone, perhaps a pullback could help with a better-timed dip to consider around a lower support level
• In either case, I suspect 7,000 may also provide strong resistance

WTI crude oil technical analysis (daily chart):​

Oil prices snapped a 3-day losing streak on Thursday, and whilst WTI crude didn’t quite meet the minimum objective of $80 – near the 61.8% Fibonacci projection, it came close enough to suggest a swing low may have formed. A bullish RSI has also formed on RSI (2). The Jan and April highs provided support initially so may provide resistance – but ultimately I suspect a bounce from current levels could be due. Whether this markets the end of an ABC correction and strong rally remains to be seen, so I’ll keep an open mind for its upside potential (or lack of from here). But if we see evidence of a swing high forming on the daily chart – such as a bearish engulfing/outside day, hammer or series of reversal candles, the $75 and $70 targets come back into focus.

AUD/USD technical analysis (1-hour chart)​

The Aussie saw a decent break above 64c on Thursday, and that brings the potential for a run for 65c whilst the US dollar and yields continue to retrace. However, a 2-bar reversal formed around 0.6450 resistance / weekly R2 pivot point alongside a bearish RSI divergence, so AUD/USD may have entered a 3-wave retracement (which assumes another leg lower). If you look to the volume profile to the left, you’ll notice a lack of trading activity around the initial breakout area, so that ‘liquidity gap’ may get filled if prices pull back far enough. In which case, look for the 64c area / weekly R1 pivot to hold as support and for a potential swing low, on the assumption it can break to new highs and head for 65c.

View the full economic calendar

The information on this web site is not targeted at the general public of any particular country. It is not intended for distribution to residents in any country where such distribution or use would contravene any local law or regulatory requirement. The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.

Futures, Options on Futures, Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Losses can exceed your deposits. Increasing leverage increases risk. Spot Gold and Silver contracts are not subject to regulation under the U.S. Commodity Exchange Act. Contracts for Difference (CFDs) are not available for US residents. Before deciding to trade forex, commodity futures, or digital assets, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained herein is intended as general information about the subject matter covered and is provided with the understanding that we do not provide any investment, legal, or tax advice. You should consult with appropriate counsel or other advisors on all investment, legal, or tax matters. References to FOREX.com or GAIN Capital refer to StoneX Group Inc. and its subsidiaries. Please read Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options.

 

[FOREX.com]

USD, yields retrace further, RBA meeting could be live: The Week Ahead​

USD, yields retrace further, RBA meeting could be live: The Week Ahead ​

Bond yields continue to retrace for a second week with the US dollar, which has allowed risk assets to bounce from their lows. Whilst it has been a nice reprieve from negative sentiment, it remains debatable as to whether the supposed short-covering rally can switch to a risk-on phase. Tuesday’s RBA meeting is more than likely to be live, and that could help AUD/USD move higher from oversold levels.

The week that was:​

• FOMC members voted unanimously to hold rates at 5.25 – 5.5% for a second consecutive meeting. Whilst they left the door open for another hike, Powell’s press-conference comments on rising yields and financial conditions means the Fed may not have to hike again.
• Market pricing continues to suspect they have reached their terminal rate with odds of a December or January hike falling from already low levels
• Expectations of a less-hawkish Fed, improved earnings and less fear of an escalation of the Middle East conflict saw a likely short squeeze for risk assets and less demand for the US dollar
• Wall Street is on track for its best week of the year with the S&P 500 up 4.9% ahead of Friday’s open, and the Nasdaq 100 up 5.2%
• Bond yields eased for a second week as bears covered and investor snapped up bargain which saw the 10, 20 and 30-year yields post their second largest declines of the year (in basis points)
• The bank of Japan eased their grip on YCC further but it came as a disappointment to many who were expected the YCC bands to be widened or abandoned and sent UD/JPY surging above 151
• Whilst the BOJ are yet to intervene, they role out the obligatory warning shots to markets with currency diplomat Kanda speaking of speculative moves
• Reuters ‘sources’ suggest the BOJ may look to exit negative rates in Spring next year following an interview with six people ‘familiar with the BOJ’s thinking’

The week ahead (calendar):​

The week ahead (key events and themes):​

• Can yields and the US dollar to loosen their grip in sentiment?
• RBA cash rate meeting
• BOJ intervention
• China data (CPI, PPI, loan growth, trade balance)

Can yields and the US dollar to loosen their grip in sentiment?​

Rising bond yields have certainly earned their time in the spotlight in recent weeks, with fears that ‘something will break’ making the round through echo chambers and market sentiment. And that has seen the US dollar mostly move in tandem with rising yields, to the detriment of its forex major peers, stocks and commodities. Yet with yields getting choppy around their highs and pulling back, it is also weighing on the US dollar and providing some relief for battered markets. And the icing on the cake this week was the Fed once again conceding that rising yields may effectively do the Fed’s tightening for them – hence the call for no further hikes.

So we have now seemingly entered a corrective phase for the US dollar which has allowed AUD/USD to break above 0.64, GBP/USD head for 1.22 and USD/CAD fall back beneath the March high after a failed bid to crack 1.39. Technically it appears such markets are in need of a retracement and their potential depths likely rely on how bullish investors want to get on bond prices, which dictates how much lower yields and therefore the US dollar will go).

But as nice as it is to see yields retrace, there is a long way for them to drop before risk can truly and sustainably rally.

Market to watch: Gold, WTI Crude Oil, S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, Dow Jones, AUD/USD

US dollar technical analysis (daily chart):​

The US dollar rallied nearly 8% in two and a half months with a clean runup, yet since October it has entered a period of choppy trade within a rough sideways channel. Whilst it holds above the 105.4 low, range-trading strategies are preferred. But it also suggests traders may want to think of their positions ‘at a day at a time’ as opposed to seeking multi-day swing trade – unless we get a fresh catalyst to drive global sentiment back into trending mode (one way or the other).

Market to watch: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, S&P 500, Nasdaq 100

RBA cash rate meeting​

Tuesday’s RBA meeting certainly has the potential to be live, even if the surprisingly dovish Fed meeting may make some question if it let’s the RBA off the hook.

Australia’s quarterly and monthly inflation reports came in higher than expected, which provided the obvious queue for money markets and economists renew forecasts for a hike in November and even December. And whilst Governor Bullock seemingly tried to tone down her previous hawkish comments after the inflation report, by saying that the RBA are still deciding whether the numbers deviated away from their own forecasts to be deemed significant), I would be surprised if they don’t hike.

With that said, I doubt the RBA have the appetite to deliver 25bp hikes in November and December. Especially as they will switch to a new format of 8 meetings per year with press conferences. But a hike on Tuesday delivers the message that they do aim to contain inflation (whilst keep expectations anchored), and they can then make another call at the February of March meeting next year for further hikes.

Market to watch: AUD/USD, NZD/USD, AUD/NZD, NZD/JPY, AUD/JPY, ASX 200

China data (CPI, PPI, loan growth, trade balance)​

For risk appetite to be truly revived, we need to see improved data from China. I can’t say I have high hopes, but a broad strengthening of data from the region is a must for global equity markets to sustain the rally we’ve seen over the past four days. The ideal scenario is to see a further pickup up of imports and loan growth to show China’s growth is being fuelled by domestic demand (as Beijing hope) whist a rise in exports would shows demand from the rest of the world – although it could be argued it provides more reasons for Western central banks to keep rates higher for longer. If China data is weak on aggregate, then AUD/USD and US indices may struggle to maintain the bullish momentum it has achieved so far this week.

Market to watch: USD/CNH, USD/JPY, S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, Dow Jones, VIX, AUD/JPY


The information on this web site is not targeted at the general public of any particular country. It is not intended for distribution to residents in any country where such distribution or use would contravene any local law or regulatory requirement. The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.

Futures, Options on Futures, Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Losses can exceed your deposits. Increasing leverage increases risk. Spot Gold and Silver contracts are not subject to regulation under the U.S. Commodity Exchange Act. Contracts for Difference (CFDs) are not available for US residents. Before deciding to trade forex, commodity futures, or digital assets, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained herein is intended as general information about the subject matter covered and is provided with the understanding that we do not provide any investment, legal, or tax advice. You should consult with appropriate counsel or other advisors on all investment, legal, or tax matters. References to FOREX.com or GAIN Capital refer to StoneX Group Inc. and its subsidiaries. Please read Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options.

 

[FOREX.com]

AUD/USD surges ahead of RBA’s expected rate hike: Asian Open Nov 6th 2023​

Market Summary:​

• The US dollar was the weakest major currency on Friday (and last week) following a softer-than-expected nonfarm payroll report
• The US economy added just 150k jobs October, compared with 180k expected and 197k prior (September’s figure was also downgraded from 336k)
• The unemployment rate rose to a 21-month high of 3.9% and average hourly wages (a key inflationary input) softened further to bolster bets that the Fed have reached their terminal rate
• The US dollar suffered its worst weekly performance in four months, allowing AUD/USD to enjoy its best week of the year and close above 65c. AUD and NZD were also the strongest forex major last week.
• The US 2-year yield fell to a 2-month low and the 10-year a 3-week low, allowing risk assets to rally
• The S&P 500 and Nasdq 100 posted its strongest weekly gain in twelve months
• The RBA is expected to raise interest rates by 25bp tomorrow according to Bloomberg survey, with an “overwhelming majority” of economists tipping the cash rate to rise to 4.35% and break a 4-meeting pause. RBA cash rate futures only imply a 50% chance of a hike, although it is worth noting that they have been less reliable of late with them implying a 100% chance of a hold at one of their more recent hikes.
• Gold prices saw another break above $2000 on Friday but it failed to see a daily close above this key level, to once again underscore that it has entered a period of choppy trade in the daily timeframe after a strong rally from $1813 at the beginning of October
• WTI crude oil was lower for a second consecutive week and formed a bearish engulfing candle on Friday. $80 is holding as support for now, a break beneath which brings the $77.33 high into focus for bears.

Events in focus (AEDT):​

• 11:00 – Australian inflation expectations (Westpac-Melbourne Institute)
• 11:30 – Australian job adverts (ANZ)
• 11:30 - Japan services PMI
• 18:00 – German factory orders
• 20:00 – Eurozone composite, services PMI – final (S&P Global)
• 20:30 – UK construction PMI
• 20:30 – Eurozone Sentix investor confidence
• 02:00 – US consumer confidence (Conference Board)
• 02:00 – Canada Ivey PMI
• 03:00 – Fed Cook speaks

ASX 200 at a glance:​

• The ASX 200 rallied for a fourth day on Friday, and enjoyed its best daily performance in seven weeks
• 8 of its 11 sectors rose last week, led by real estate and info tech
• 7,000 is a likely resistance level today ahead of tomorrow’s RBA meeting, with expectations of a rate hike (where a hawkish hike could cap further gains over the near-term)

AUD/USD technical analysis (daily chart):​

The weak nonfarm payroll report has cemented expectations that the Fed have reached their peak rate, and renewed expectation of an RBA hike tomorrow has sent AUD/USD strongly higher. The Aussie has closed above 65c but stalled just beneath the August 29 high, which is acting as resistance during early Asian trade. With the RSI (2) overbought with prices below resistance, perhaps we’ll see a retracement have of tomorrow’s RBA meeting. But with a hike now fully expected, it may take a hawkish hike (such as the obligatory comment that “further tightening may be required”) to see it materially rise after the meeting. And that brings the 200-day EMA into focus around 66c.







View the full economic calendar


The information on this web site is not targeted at the general public of any particular country. It is not intended for distribution to residents in any country where such distribution or use would contravene any local law or regulatory requirement. The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.

Futures, Options on Futures, Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Losses can exceed your deposits. Increasing leverage increases risk. Spot Gold and Silver contracts are not subject to regulation under the U.S. Commodity Exchange Act. Contracts for Difference (CFDs) are not available for US residents. Before deciding to trade forex, commodity futures, or digital assets, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained herein is intended as general information about the subject matter covered and is provided with the understanding that we do not provide any investment, legal, or tax advice. You should consult with appropriate counsel or other advisors on all investment, legal, or tax matters. References to FOREX.com or GAIN Capital refer to StoneX Group Inc. and its subsidiaries. Please read Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options.

 

[FOREX.com]

AUD/USD, ASX 200 tread water ahead of expected RBA hike: Asian Open Nov 7th 2023​

Market Summary:​

The RBA are widely expected to hike their cash rate by 25bp today, and quite rightly so. The current rate of 4.1% remains relatively low compared with their peers, and with inflation not softening quickly enough it leaves little choice but for the RBA to hike to 4.35% and retain a hawkish tone. If they don’t, the RBA risks losing credibility very early under Michelle Bullocks tenure. At the very least, the statement needs to include the classic signoff “Some further tightening of monetary policy may be required”. So, it really comes down to how hawkish the markets perceive the statement and how many more hike/s they believe will follow, as to how markets will react.

• Australia’s PM Albanese has become the first to meet with China’s Xi Jinping in over seven years, after their meeting in Beijing on Monday
• Rising US bond yields saw the US dollar recoup some of Friday’s losses and its FX major peers retrace, although volatility remained low overall
• It was a very quiet session on Wall Street with US indices trading in tight ranges around last week’s highs
• Gold formed a bearish engulfing day following Friday’s shooting bar (which itself was a lower high and false break of $2000). The path of least resistance appears lower for a potential move to 1950 - 1960 from a technical perspective
• WTI crude oil continues to meander around its 200-day EMA yet hold above $80, a clear level of support for oil bulls to defend over the near-term

Events in focus (AEDT):​

• 10:30 – Japan’s average cash earnings, China trade balance
• 14:30 – RBA cash rate decision, statement
• 16:00 – German industrial production
• 19:35 – Eurozone PPI

ASX 200 at a glance:​

• The ASX 200 has produced a strong rally into the 7,000 handle leading into today’s RBA meeting
• The 50-day EMA is also capping as resistance which makes the 7,000 area the more pivotal
• Failure for the RBA to deliver a hawkish tone alongside a hike risks sending the ASX 200 higher and brings the 7100 resistance zone into focus
• A hawkish tone could mark a swing high and see the ASX 200 move towards 6900 (the more hawkish the tone, the deeper the move lower could be)

AUD/USD technical analysis (4-hour chart):​

As AUD/USD has already posted strong gains heading into today’s meeting, is begs the question as to whether the anticipated 25bp hike has already been priced in. And that risks a move lower on AUD/USD if the RBA simply deliver the expected hike and stop short of including a hawkish bias (threat of further hikes).

Monday’s high met resistance around the September highs (and double top) and the monthly R2 pivot point, making it an important level of resistance for bulls to conquer. Prices are pulling back, and they might continue to do so heading into the meeting as prices try to fill the ‘liquidity gap’ left during its strong rally.

If the RBA fumble the meeting, a move to 0.6430 seems plausible given the high-volume node (which can act as a magnet for prices) which sits near the monthly R1 pivot. A break beneath it brings 0.6400 into focus.

A hike could send AUD/USD back to the cycle highs, but a sustainable break above it may require a hawkish hike.

View the full economic calendar

The information on this web site is not targeted at the general public of any particular country. It is not intended for distribution to residents in any country where such distribution or use would contravene any local law or regulatory requirement. The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.

Futures, Options on Futures, Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Losses can exceed your deposits. Increasing leverage increases risk. Spot Gold and Silver contracts are not subject to regulation under the U.S. Commodity Exchange Act. Contracts for Difference (CFDs) are not available for US residents. Before deciding to trade forex, commodity futures, or digital assets, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained herein is intended as general information about the subject matter covered and is provided with the understanding that we do not provide any investment, legal, or tax advice. You should consult with appropriate counsel or other advisors on all investment, legal, or tax matters. References to FOREX.com or GAIN Capital refer to StoneX Group Inc. and its subsidiaries. Please read Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options.

 

[FOREX.com]

WTI continues to defy the consensus, AUD/USD falls post RBA: Asian Open Nov 8th 2023​

Market Summary:​

The RBA hiked their cash rate by 25bp to 4.35% in line with the consensus view, although AUD/USD was quick to selloff as the statement lacked the apparent hawkish tone that markets were positioned for. Hot inflation, producer prices and retail spending had seen some banks upwardly revise their forecasts for a November and December hike, yet the minor tweak to the final paragraph suggests the RBA’s decision to hike once more remains on a meeting-by-meeting basis as data comes in.

AUD/USD was the weakest FX major during its worst day in over three weeks, AUD/JPY rolled over after just failing to retest its June high / YTD high and Australian yields were also off by at least 15 bps across the curve.

• The US dollar was the strongest FX major and rose for a second day as it recouped some of Friday’s heavy losses, although the lack of momentum and lower US yields suggests its part of a retracement for USD
• Fed member Bowman said he expected the Fed will have to tighten rates further whilst Logan said that inflation remains too high
• Gold fell for a second day in line with yesterday’s bearish bias before finding support just above the September high. Given half of yesterday’s range was the low wick then gold may find some stability over the near-term.
• Oil prices also continued to fall, with WTI falling over -4% on Tuesday and breaking beneath $80 in line with my bearish bias following soft Chia data and rising OPEC exports
• Wall Street indices pushed higher which saw the Nasdaq 100 notch up its eight consecutive bullish day, whilst the S&P 500 and Dow Jones have now risen for seven

Events in focus (AEDT):​

• 08:45 – New Zealand employment
• 11:30 – Australian building approvals
• 13:00 – New Zealand inflation expectations
• 16:00 – Japan coincident / leading index
• 18:00 – German CPI
• 21:00 -Eurozone retail sales
• 21:15 – Fed governor Cook speaks

ASX 200 at a glance:​

• The ASX 200 snapped a 5-day winning streak following the RBA’s decision to hike
• Only 6 of its 11 sectors declined and the daily range was relatively small
• And given the lack of bearish follow-through, the hike was seemingly priced in and ASX traders live in hope the terminal rate of the cycle is 4.35%
• Whilst Wall Street provided a positive lead, SPI 200 futures were flat and it looks like the ASX 200 needs to decide again whether it has the strength to challenge key resistance around 7,000

WTI crude oil technical analysis (chart):​

I’m happy to say I was one of the few calling for lower oil prices despite the consensus making +$100 calls. The clues included two suspiciously small ‘bullish’ weekly candles despite an influx of Middle East headlines whilst managed funds and large speculators were increasing their gross-short exposure. Alas, oil prices have since fallen to a 4-month low and show the potential to fall further.

WTI crude oil broke firmly beneath $80 bias before finding support around the $77.33 high, which now brings the $75 and $70 handles into focus for bears near the 100% and 138.2% Fibonacci projection levels. The fact that WTI closed on support at the low of the day suggests any initial pullback prior to a break may be on the small side.

AUD/USD technical analysis (chart):​

Traders were positioned for a hawkish statement they seemingly weren’t given, although the interpretations of statements can vary widely from a central bank’s intent. Stil, AUD/USD reacted a I suspected it would under this scenario; it sold off and failed to break key resistance. It also fell to the 0.6430 area, near the high-volume node from the prior leg and came close to probing 0.64.

Given key support at 0.64 held, RSI (2) reached oversold and curled higher with prices, a small bounce could be due today. That leaves the potential for near-term bullish setups, or perhaps bears may want to wait on the sideline for evidence of a swing high to fade into around potential resistance levels.

View the full economic calendar


The information on this web site is not targeted at the general public of any particular country. It is not intended for distribution to residents in any country where such distribution or use would contravene any local law or regulatory requirement. The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.

Futures, Options on Futures, Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Losses can exceed your deposits. Increasing leverage increases risk. Spot Gold and Silver contracts are not subject to regulation under the U.S. Commodity Exchange Act. Contracts for Difference (CFDs) are not available for US residents. Before deciding to trade forex, commodity futures, or digital assets, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained herein is intended as general information about the subject matter covered and is provided with the understanding that we do not provide any investment, legal, or tax advice. You should consult with appropriate counsel or other advisors on all investment, legal, or tax matters. References to FOREX.com or GAIN Capital refer to StoneX Group Inc. and its subsidiaries. Please read Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options.

 

[FOREX.com]

USD/JPY rises to resistance, USD ready to retrace? Asian Open Nov 9th 2023​

Market Summary:​

• Joe Biden and Xi Jinping are set to meet in San Francisco next week for summit talks, which would make it their second meeting in three years. Although it has since been reported that Janet Yellen is set to meet China’s Vice Premier ahead of the APEC summit.
• The new Republican House Speaker, Mike Johnson, is to reveal his plan over the next couple of days of how to avoid a government shutdown (current funding expires 17 November)
• Not that US stock markets seem too bothered, with the Nasdaq 100 effective trading flat for the day. Although its minor loss means it snapped its 7-day winning streak with the October high acting as resistance
• Oil demand concerns for the US and China continued to weigh on oil prices and sent WTI crude down to my $75 target. With no immediate signs of a trough, the potential for a move to $70 remains on the cards.
• “Some” BOC members saw the need for further interest rate hikes according to their minutes of the meeting, although the majority clearly got their way by holding rates at 5%. However, a recent survey of market participants lists higher interest rates as the main risk to the economy.
• The US dollar index rose for a third day, but only just with a modest gain of 0.05%. But the bearish hammer candle respected the March high and reinforces my bias that another leg lower may be due for the US dollar.
• Jerome Powell did not make any remarks on monetary policy when he spoke at a central bank statistics conference on Wednesday
• AUD/USD was the weakest FX major for a second day after the RBA hiked without a commitment to further hikes. The Aussie posted a minor retracement higher before falling back to 64c, a level it is considering breaking now. Due to technical levels nearby, happy to remain flat until a better opportunity arrives.
• The Japanese yen continued to weaken against USD, EUR and GBP, which saw EUR/JPY rise to its highest level since August 2008.
• USD/JPY rose for a third day and is just -67 pips beneath its October high, or -89 pips beneath the October 2022 high (when the BOJ last intervened)

Events in focus (AEDT):​

• 08:45 – New Zealand retail sales
• 10:50 – BOJ summary of opinions, bank lending, current account
• 12:30 – China CPI, PPI
• 19:30 – BOE MPC member Pill speaks
• 01:15 – Fed Chair Powell speaks

ASX 200 at a glance:​

• The ASX 200 printed a small bullish inside day beneath 7000 resistance on Wednesday
• However, with SPI 200 futures up ~0.5% the ASX cash market is expected to open above 7,000 today
• If bulls can maintain control today, 7062 and 7100 are resistance levels for them to target whilst 7,000 and 6952 are likely levels of support

USD index technical analysis (DXY chart):​

I outlined a near-term bearish bias for the US dollar index in yesterday’s article, so this is merely a minor update. The market has formed a 1-bar reversal and its high perfectly respected the resistance zone, and the day closed back beneath the weekly pivot point. Bears could either seek to enter with a break of Wednesday’s low, or fade into low volatility retracements within Wednesday’s range. The initial target is 105 / VPOC, a break beneath which opens up a ruin for 104 near the 200day EMA.

USD/JPY technical analysis:​

The weaker yen has allowed USD/JPY to creep higher despite a soft performance for the US dollar elsewhere and lower bond yields. Yet USD/JPY is fast approaching key levels which may tempt bears into near-term short trades. Yesterday’s high stopped just short of the weekly R1 pivot point, and 151.21 marks a high-volume node from the prior decline – which provides a potential zone of resistance for bears play with. Should prices instead break higher, then the next obvious zone of resistance is the October and October 2022 high (when the BOJ last intervened).

View the full economic calendar


The information on this web site is not targeted at the general public of any particular country. It is not intended for distribution to residents in any country where such distribution or use would contravene any local law or regulatory requirement. The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.

Futures, Options on Futures, Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Losses can exceed your deposits. Increasing leverage increases risk. Spot Gold and Silver contracts are not subject to regulation under the U.S. Commodity Exchange Act. Contracts for Difference (CFDs) are not available for US residents. Before deciding to trade forex, commodity futures, or digital assets, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained herein is intended as general information about the subject matter covered and is provided with the understanding that we do not provide any investment, legal, or tax advice. You should consult with appropriate counsel or other advisors on all investment, legal, or tax matters. References to FOREX.com or GAIN Capital refer to StoneX Group Inc. and its subsidiaries. Please read Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options.

 

[FOREX.com]

​

S&P 500 hints at swing high following Powell’s hawkish speech: The Week Ahead Nov 10th 2023​

Hawkish comments from Jerome Powell with the threat of further hikes snapped Wall Street’s 8-day wining streak, and hints at a swing high on the S&P 500 heading into the weekend. And that puts traders on high alert for next week’s inflation report, not to mention the threat of a government shutdown if the debt ceiling is not raised by Friday.

The week that was:​

• Wall Street rallied in the first half of the week with an 8-day winning streak (its best streak in two years) despite hawkish comments from some Fed members
• Yet a hawkish speech from Jerome Powell snapped the winning streak, seeing the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 and Dow Jones formed bearish engulfing days on Thursday
• Powell warned that the Fed are not yet confident policy is tight enough and that they will not hesitate to hike again if need be
• Bond yields recouped some of last week’s losses, with the 2-year nearly recouping all by Thursday’s close (the 2-year is more sensitive to monetary policy expectations)
• The RBA Hiked their cash rate by 25bp to 4.35%, yet traders positioned for a hawkish hike were disappointed without a firm commitment to further hikes in the statement
• Oil prices continued to unwind with TWI crude oil falling to a 3-month low amid concerns over demand from the US and China
• China’s consumer prices slipped back into deflation at -0.2% y/y and -0.1% m/m, to show the level if stimulus to revive the economy remains inadequate

The week ahead (calendar):​

The week ahead (key events and themes):​

The week ahead (key themes and events):

• US government shutdown
• US inflation
• Australian wage inflation employment data
• China data

US government shutdown​

This topic keeps on resurfacing, and it certainly seems it is popping up with an increased frequency. But once again the US government is approaching a shutdown unless a resolution can be found ahead of November 17th, when the government is expected to run out of money. Mike Johnson, the new Republican house speaker, is expected to reveal his plans of how to avoid the catastrophe over the next coupe of days. But if history is anything to go by, talks will run to the final hour and could weigh on risk appetite, before the debt ceiling is inevitably raised once more to potentially see risk bounce.

Market to watch: EURUSD, USD/JPY, WTI Crude Oil, Gold, S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, Dow Jones

S&P 500 technical analysis (daily chart)​

The S&P 500 rallied just over 7% from the October 26 low to the daily high ahead of Powell’s speech, in a relatively straight line with a couple of bullish gaps along the way. Then Jerome Powell delivered his hawkish speech, traders took note, forcing bulls out and bears to reinitiate and close the day with a prominent bearish engulfing day.

This places a potential swing high around a cluster of technical levels including gap resistance, October highs, 4400 handle and a bearish trendline. As we head into the weekend, we might see the S&P 500 try and close the bullish gap around 4320, a break beneath which brings the 200-day EMA and lower bullish gap into focus.

US inflation​

With markets still absorbing hawkish comments from Jerome Powell, next week’s inflation report becomes the more important because any signs of rising price pressures could see markets reprice the potential for another hike. With core CPI rising 0.3% m/m for the past two months and the annual rate still at 4.1%, it is difficult for the Fed not to maintain a hawkish narrative. And that could keep a lid on appetite for risk unless we’re treated to a refreshingly soft set of inflation numbers next week.

Market to watch: EURUSD, USD/JPY, WTI Crude Oil, Gold, S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, Dow Jones

Australian wage inflation employment data​

Despite a new governor at the helm, the RBA’s approach to hiking seems very familiar; do it as little as possible. When inflation data was broadly higher than expected, producer price and retail sales also beat, many economists upgraded their forecasts for two more hikes this year. So when they RBA delivered the 25bp hike alongside a slightly tweaked statement to suggest incoming data will decide if more hikes are to follow, some AUD/USD bulls were caught on guard. But now we know that the RBA remain very much in a data-dependent mode, that clearly makes incoming data the more important.

For the hawks calling for another hike or two, a hotter wage price index alongside okay or better employment data could be the key.

Market to watch: AUD/USD, NZD/USD, AUD/NZD, NZD/JPY, AUD/JPY, ASX 200

Data from China and Japan​

Japan’s GDP is expected to contract by -0.1% in Q3 and post a trade deficit in October due to the weaker yen, according to ING. A slew of data from China is also in focus, including industrial production, investment and retail sales. Whilst retail sales are expected to rise, it’s likely down to a basing effect as last year’s lockdowns drop out of the annual figure. And with inflation and PMIs coming in softer, there’s now an expectation for industrial production and investment to follow suit. Whilst this is deflationary for the rest of the world, it also points to slower global growth.

Market to watch: USD/CNH, USD/JPY, S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, Dow Jones, VIX, AUD/JPY



The information on this web site is not targeted at the general public of any particular country. It is not intended for distribution to residents in any country where such distribution or use would contravene any local law or regulatory requirement. The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.

Futures, Options on Futures, Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Losses can exceed your deposits. Increasing leverage increases risk. Spot Gold and Silver contracts are not subject to regulation under the U.S. Commodity Exchange Act. Contracts for Difference (CFDs) are not available for US residents. Before deciding to trade forex, commodity futures, or digital assets, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained herein is intended as general information about the subject matter covered and is provided with the understanding that we do not provide any investment, legal, or tax advice. You should consult with appropriate counsel or other advisors on all investment, legal, or tax matters. References to FOREX.com or GAIN Capital refer to StoneX Group Inc. and its subsidiaries. Please read Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options.

 

[FOREX.com]

AUD/USD, S&500 analysis: Asian Open – Nov 13, 2013​

Market Summary:​

• Moody’s ratings agency downgraded their credit rating for the US to negative from stable, due to large fiscal deficits and weakening debt affordability
• Market pricing in early Asian trade has taken the downgrade within its stride
• The Nasdaq 100 has posted gains over the past 18 Mondays (and the S&P 500 have posted gains 17 of the past 18). With no immediate explanation as to why, we now wait to see if it can add to the impressive winning streak
• Joe Biden says he wants the US and China to re-establish military ties, ahead of their face to face meeting on Wednesday
• The Australian dollar was the weakest forex major last week, following a less-hawkish than expected RBA hike. The Aussie also fell for five consecutive days and closed beneath 64c
• WTI crude oil enjoyed its best day of the week on Friday after finding support at $75 (one of my bearish targets). It also formed a 3-day bullish reversal pattern called a morning star formation. As it has now fallen for three weeks and in a relatively straight line, I’m happy to step aside and stay flat.
• Gold fell for a second consecutive week and closed beneath the September high, although the 38.2% Fibonacci ratio between the October high and low is acting as support.

Events in focus (AEDT):​

• Publish holiday in Singapore (Diwali)
• 08:30 – New Zealand Performance of Services index
• 10:50 – Japan producer prices
• 17:00 – Japan machine tool orders
• 19:00 – China new loans, outstanding loan growth, total social financing, M2 money supply
• 22:55 – BOE Breeden speaks

ASX 200 at a glance:​

• The ASX 200 posted a minor loss last week, and spent most of the week meandering around 7,000
• SPI futures and Wall Street’s gains on Friday suggest a positive open for the ASX cash index today
• Yet its indecision around the 7,000 area make it a difficult market to have a bias on, particularly as the daily ranges have been smaller than usual
• Therefore, my bias is neutral until volatility returns and momentum tips its hand

S&P 500 technical analysis (daily chart):​

The S&P 500 has risen over 7% since the late-October low, and in it has done so in a relatively straight line. There was a slight consolidation last week, although Friday’s strong bullish candle suggests its ready for its next leg higher. Whilst the S&P 500 closed above gap resistance, the trendline capped its upside. Therefore, bulls can either with for a break above Friday’s high to assume bullish continuation, or wait to see if prices pull back and respect a support level before seeking to buy the dip (in anticipation of a breakout).

AUD/USD technical analysis (daily chart):​

This is on the scrappy side, but AUD/USD’s ability to hold above the 63c area despite data and headlines suggesting it should have broken lower already should not be ignored. A small bullish hammer formed on Friday, and as it has fallen for five consecutive days then odds suggest we maybe nearing an up day. Any pullbacks towards 63c / 0.6314 (the most traded prices during the prior consolidation) will pique my bullish interest for a initial move to 64c. A break above which brings 0.6450 into focus.

View the full economic calendar
The information on this web site is not targeted at the general public of any particular country. It is not intended for distribution to residents in any country where such distribution or use would contravene any local law or regulatory requirement. The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.

Futures, Options on Futures, Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Losses can exceed your deposits. Increasing leverage increases risk. Spot Gold and Silver contracts are not subject to regulation under the U.S. Commodity Exchange Act. Contracts for Difference (CFDs) are not available for US residents. Before deciding to trade forex, commodity futures, or digital assets, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained herein is intended as general information about the subject matter covered and is provided with the understanding that we do not provide any investment, legal, or tax advice. You should consult with appropriate counsel or other advisors on all investment, legal, or tax matters. References to FOREX.com or GAIN Capital refer to StoneX Group Inc. and its subsidiaries. Please read Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options.