Daily Technical and Fundamental analysis for multi pairs.

[luckyanand12]

We updated our target and SL for buy trades of NZD/USD that were entered as per our previous NZD analysis. The new nearest target is XadY100.0 (around 0.64500) because all other targets mentioned in previous analysis are beyond it. New SL is below the opening point of engulfing candle shown in the pic below. This new SL is higher than average of BEs of the two trades, therefore now these trades are risk free and will be profitable even if they will be closed at the SL.
View attachment 48660

Closed one out of two positions with +63.0 pips, keeping another for further gains.

 

[luckyanand12]

USD/CAD analysis | Nov 20, 2019

It made a mathematically perfect 3 drive. If you measure distances, you will find that 2nd drive is precisely 161.8% of 1st retracement and 3rd drive is precisely 161.8% of 2nd retracement.
Only glitch is 2nd drive whose speed is not harmonic with 1st & 3rd drive.

ABCD expansion 127.2 coincides with top of last drive, which makes it a significant resistance. From this point, USD/CAD started falling slowly and we entered sell.

Minimum target of 3 drive pattern is to erase the last drive. Nonetheless, we are not targeting bottom of 3rd drive.

If you look at retracements, it seems that a 3rd harmonic retracement may take place. Nonetheless, we are not targeting bottom of probable 3rd retracement either.

We are just targeting FIB38.2 retracement level of last drive with SL above today's top. It fulfills our risk management criteria i.e. at least R:R::1:1 or better.
View attachment 48657

The trade has been accomplished at target TP, since BOC's Poloz as expected didn't add anything new in his speech today and stayed firm as he was last week.

 

[luckyanand12]

Bullish Garley/222 pattern at EUR/USD

FIB61.8 (1.09939 - light green horizontal line) of upswing XA almost coincides with ABCD100.0, which makes a bullish gartley/222 pattern on D1/daily time-frame. The round no. 1.10000 also coincides with support cluster area formed between FIB61.8 and ABCD161.8, that makes this area even more significant.

It still keeps the chances of bullish continuation of EUR/USD intact. Earlier we had similar view. If EUR/USD makes a bullish candle or chart pattern on H1 even after closure of D1 below FIB61.8, chances of bullish reversal will still be on the table. However, if prices goes to D area but doesn't close below the FIB level; it will plot even stronger scenario for bullish reversal.

View attachment 45342

If you have traded this gartley, you can now close half of your position or set SL to BE.

Update: Having seen positive revisions in PMIs; French Flash Manufacturing PMI (50.5 to 50.7), German Flash Manufacturing PMI (41.9 to 42.1), German Flash Services PMI (51.2 to 51.6), EU Flash Manufacturing PMI (45.7 to 45.9) and EU Flash Services PMI (51.8 to 52.2), I am not expecting upcoming PMIs tomorrow to be surprisingly negative. PMIs are leading indicator of economy and if it is improving, it seems like the worst is over and economy seems to be recently recovering. Therefore, I don't expect ECB's Lagarde who is going to speak this week, to signal any immediate QE or rate cut. Moreover, worry about export from EU is not increasing; since USA, Canada, NZ etc recently didn't signal any rate cut.

Therefore EUR/USD may reach point C shown in graph of the quoted analysis. And, even if my analysis about Lagarde's speech or/and PMIs goes wrong, you will not lose anything because you can set SL to BE now and/or book profit by closing half of your position. This is how you can hold for more gain with no risk in this trade.

 

[luckyanand12]

Buy EUR/JPY | Nov 21, 2019

My last post on EUR analysis shows that we are bullish in EUR.
My last post on JPY analysis shows that we closed sell of USD/JPY, which means that we are no longer thinking that JPY may strengthen today especially because USD/JPY has held its gain made since China Vice Premier Liu He spoke.
Conclusion: EUR is strong and JPY is weak, so let's buy EUR/JPY.

He is what we observed on chart of EUR/JPY to enter a buy position:

 

[luckyanand12]

Buy NZD/JPY | Nov 21, 2019

About NZD: we've recently been bullish in NZD as illustrated in my last NZD/USD analysis.
About JPY: you can read my last EUR/JPY analysis to know why we think that JPY is not gonna turn strong anytime soon.

Conclusion: NZD is strong and JPY is weak, so let's but NZD/JPY.

Here is what we observed on chart of NZD/JPY:

 

[luckyanand12]

USD/CHF, alternative scenario | Nov 22, 2019


When a global tension like US-China trade deal eases, safe havens such as CHF & JPY lose.
CHF has been losing since China Vice Premier Liu He spoke yesterday. USD/CHF gained not just for a time being, but it actually held gains of Asian sessions and kept gaining till closing of Nov 21, that made the daily/D1 candle close above trend predictor (red line).

This economical news, change of trend and harmonic scenarios on D1 & H time-frames are more likely to work as the external factors that will lead to bullish continuation.


Daily time-frame:

H1 time-frame:
Buy stop can be set above B with nearest target at D shown in graph below. If you lose in sell (of previous scenario), you can recover on this buy trade, make sure to adjust lot size because this trade has less pips.

 

[luckyanand12]

Buy CAD/JPY | Nov 22, 2019

About CAD: We remain bullish in CAD as we wrote in last USD/CAD analysis, CAD may gain up to some extent at least for correction.

CAD gained significantly after BOC's Poloz spoke yesterday and it held the gain till closing of the day.

About JPY: JPY has been losing since China Vice Premier Liu He spoke.

Technical analysis at CAD/JPY:
CAD/JPY already completed almost all downside targets shown in previous analysis, such as ABCD100.0, FIB61.8 of whole swing up & 3 drive completion point. It makes a ground for bullish reversal/retracement.
Besides this technical factor, we got a bullish hammer on D1/daily time-frame. It can go up to FIB50.0 of recent whole move down, buy we have just set our TP = SL.

 

[luckyanand12]

Sell AUD/CHF | AUD analysis

If you look at our previous analysis of USD/CHF, you will find that we have been bearish on USD/CHF. After retracing slightly up for last four days, including today, Nov 20; USD/CHF seems to have resumed fall and may go to next target as mentioned in previous analysis. Conclusion: CHF is strong.

As per our observation shown in pic below, AUD is weak.
View attachment 48655

Decision: The conclusions derived from AUD/USD and USD/CHF, makes us sell AUD/CHF. Besides the conclusions; we on 1H time-frame of AUD/CHF see that tendency of upward retracement, higher highs & higher lows, was broken when a lower high & a lower low were made.
View attachment 48656

Closed AUD/CHF prematurely because we determined an alternative scenario on CHF.

 

[luckyanand12]

USD/CHF, alternative scenario | Nov 22, 2019


When a global tension like US-China trade deal eases, safe havens such as CHF & JPY lose.
CHF has been losing since China Vice Premier Liu He spoke yesterday. USD/CHF gained not just for a time being, but it actually held gains of Asian sessions and kept gaining till closing of Nov 21, that made the daily/D1 candle close above trend predictor (red line).

This economical news, change of trend and harmonic scenarios on D1 & H time-frames are more likely to work as the external factors that will lead to bullish continuation.


Daily time-frame:
View attachment 48693

H1 time-frame:
Buy stop can be set above B with nearest target at D shown in graph below. If you lose in sell (of previous scenario), you can recover on this buy trade, make sure to adjust lot size because this trade has less pips.
View attachment 48694

The trade has successfully been accomplished at the target shown on H4.

 

[BesiCJ]

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