Daily Technical and Fundamental analysis for multi pairs.

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CAD has shown strength against USD in last few days whereas all other major currencies have weakened against it.


On H4 time-frame:

I had discussed about this channel in last analysis of USDCAD, had opened buy position; it had gone up but had not hit TP and it had come back and closed at Break Even point. 1.3339 was not broken and now the bullish channel has already been invalidated.
USDCAD_H4_Sep 30_2019.png


We need trend change confirmation on daily/D1 time-frame. Then we can target Fib.68.1 at least for a quick trade with invalidation point above today's high. We can target FIB78.6 as 2nd target.

FIB61.8 coincides with round no. 1.3200 and it is also support1 of weekly pivot . FIB78.6 is slightly above support2 of weekly pivot.

I am keeping targets small because USD/CAD has tendency to trade in short range for long time unless there is fundamental driving force.


USDCAD_daily_Sep 30, 2019.png
 
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If you have read my previous analysis of USDJPY, you know that I was expecting a move to 107 again.

Yesterday's candle made a bearish engulfing as well as a stop grabber.

ABCD100 coincides with FIB38.2, that is the target.

Sell entry at 30% retracement of recent move down.

Setup will be invalidated if any daily/D1 candle closes above yesterday's high.

USDJPY_Oct 2_2019.png
 
If you have read my previous analysis of USDJPY, you know that I was expecting a move to 107 again.

Yesterday's candle made a bearish engulfing as well as a stop grabber.

ABCD100 coincides with FIB38.2, that is the target.

Sell entry at 30% retracement of recent move down.

Setup will be invalidated if any daily/D1 candle closes above yesterday's high.

View attachment 44712
Fundamental factors that support bearish move:

  1. USD/JPY rally flounders; US data disappoints, global recession fears return
  2. Undermined by worst US manufacturing data in a decade, US yields lurch lower
  3. Fed easing chances increase sharply to 75bps of cuts by Jan 2021
  4. USD downside limited, higher chances of BOJ easing negate Fed expectation
  5. Weak Japan confidence readings may spur BOJ to act
 
If you have read my previous analysis of AUDJPY and my comments on it, you know that I was targeting 38.2% and 50% levels of whole swing up on daily. These targets have already been hit by AUD/JPY.

Today, I entered short at 30% retracement of recent move down on H1.

A up-spike was caused by RBA event yesterday but downward move continued because of dovish RBA.

Having seen scenario on USD/JPY, I am targeting 71.00 this time.
AUD_JPY_Oct 2_2019.png
 
EUR/USD | Sep 30, 2019
View attachment 44692

ABCD100 is gonna be completed soon. D is at 1.0865.

Butterfly xabcd161.8 has already been completed, the crimson line (value 1.08901) is 161.8% of xa.

RSI's value is now 34.5 and will become 30 (oversold) by the time ABCD100 will be completed.

Month's ending today, so retail sell positions will be closed to book profit by many traders and fund managers.

Therefore, we will be looking for any bullish candle pattern on H1.
Entered buy at 1.0915 (50% retracement of upward movement since release of ISM Manufacturing PMI).
 
If you have read my previous analysis of EURUSD, you know that I was looking for buying opportunity.

Entered buy at 1.0915 (50% retracement of upward movement since release of ISM Manufacturing PMI).

Butterflies, three drives etc. easily fail to work as full reversal pattern but partial reversal or at least 30% retracement is easily caused by such patterns; so I am targeting only 30% of butterfly move from a to d.
EUR_USD_Oct 2_2019.png
 
CAD has shown strength against USD in last few days whereas all other major currencies have weakened against it.


On H4 time-frame:

I had discussed about this channel in last analysis of USDCAD, had opened buy position; it had gone up but had not hit TP and it had come back and closed at Break Even point. 1.3339 was not broken and now the bullish channel has already been invalidated.
View attachment 44694

We need trend change confirmation on daily/D1 time-frame. Then we can target Fib.68.1 at least for a quick trade with invalidation point above today's high. We can target FIB78.6 as 2nd target.

FIB61.8 coincides with round no. 1.3200 and it is also support1 of weekly pivot . FIB78.6 is slightly above support2 of weekly pivot.

I am keeping targets small because USD/CAD has tendency to trade in short range for long time unless there is fundamental driving force.


View attachment 44695
USD/CAD had not continued to FIB61.8. Nevertheless, Tuesday's fall had given me chance to move SL to BE, later closed with +10.0 pips.
 
CAD has turned to be the weakest currency since beginning of Wednesday. It seems like CAD (a risky currency) weakens the most when JPY (a safe heaven currency) gains the most in global economic tensions.

I don't see any trade setup on CAD pairs as of now.
 
If you have read my previous analysis of USDJPY, you know that I was expecting a move to 107 again.

Yesterday's candle made a bearish engulfing as well as a stop grabber.

ABCD100 coincides with FIB38.2, that is the target.

Sell entry at 30% retracement of recent move down.

Setup will be invalidated if any daily/D1 candle closes above yesterday's high.

View attachment 44712
This trade's been accomplished. I'll will be monitoring further development in the pair.
 
If you have read my previous analysis of AUDJPY and my comments on it, you know that I was targeting 38.2% and 50% levels of whole swing up on daily. These targets have already been hit by AUD/JPY.

Today, I entered short at 30% retracement of recent move down on H1.

A up-spike was caused by RBA event yesterday but downward move continued because of dovish RBA.

Having seen scenario on USD/JPY, I am targeting 71.00 this time.
View attachment 44716
Exit: Closed AUDJPY with +50.0 pips. USD/JPY seems to pull back from this level and AUD/USD has also been pulling upward recently, so staying short anymore is not advisable, nevertheless I will monitoring further development in AUD and USD/JPY to determine if I can short AUD/JPY again to target 71.00.
 
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