I am impressed with the accuracy of predictions on this point by research giant Charles Nenner at charlesnenner.com. He makes good use of cycle theory which he scientifically shows to affect human emotions such as optimism toward investing in stocks.
Nenner was quoted in Anthony Mirhaydari's column in MSN Money on July 14, 2010 as follows:
"In a May 31 note to clients, Nenner said that the stock market's rise in late May was a head fake and that another low was due around June 11. The actual date was June 8. His cycle work then showed a dramatic slide lower starting in late June and continuing into July. That's exactly what happened.
Next, Nenner expects an intermediate high for stocks later this month, followed by a late-August slide that retests recent lows and then a strong rebound into September. Though the short-term outlook doesn't seem so bad, Nenner's medium-term forecast is rather gloomy.
After the September bump, the cycles suggest stocks should fall into a major low due Christmas Eve."
Nenner was dead on re September bull run. It started the exact day he said it would -- Sept. 1. Now, the market has reversed starting on week after the mid-term election. Again, Nenner was dead on, while the huge majority of analysts were extremely bullish.
I don't know how he does it, but I'm a believer.
I also believe that the fact fiscal conservatives did best in the Nov. 2 US election has affected sentiment. They stand for austerity. That theme will control until the correction becomes so severe that politicians will have no choice but to pump even more money out.