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We do update Elliott Wave Analysis & Forecast on this thread. Generally Elliott Wave Analysis of FX Pairs, Gold, Crude Oil, S&P Futures & Dollar index are updated once a day. Elliott Wave Forecast, Elliott Wave Analysis, Elliott Wave Trading, Elliott Wave Signals
 
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EURUSD Remains Trapped In Range, But Triangle Is Pointing Higher

Canadian dollar was one of the weakest yesterday after BoC leaved rates unchanged at 1% due to weakness in the economy and lowered GDP expectations for 2013 from 2.3% to 2.0%. IMF also lowered global growth for 2013 but markets did not move much after the announcement. Most of the FX pairs and major commodity markets are trading sideways while stocks keep pushing higher. S&P500 slowed down yesterday 4 points ahead of 1500 psychological level.

EURUSD tested 1.3250/60 support few sessions back from where we could see push higher today after just released better than expected German PMI numbers 48.8 vs. 47.1 expectation, but still in a contraction zone.

From an Elliott Wave perspective EURUSD still could be forming a triangle in wave four, but it’s hard to call the end of it. We need some impulsive reactions out of the path before direction of the pair can be confirmed.
eurusd693.4.gif
 

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Euro-Crosses should Extend Even Higher In Risk-On Environment-Elliott Wave

USD has been trading higher against its rivals during the Asian trading hours. AUD, GBP and CAD are still one of the weakest while JPY is trying to find some support for the near-term. Larger picture of the markets remains unchanged but still very messy.

Below we have an overlay chart between some major FX currencies compared to S&P Futures and Crude Oil. We can see a strong negative correlation between FX pairs where only the EUR is moving higher in-line with risk-on assets, such oil and S&P. Honestly, we do not like divergences too much, especially not between aussie and S&P which in fact could be signaling for a coming pull-back on stocks.

Overlay-Daily

over695.3.gif

Anyhow, traders need to trade what they see and not what they think, so at the moment looking for longs on EUR-crosses should be the best choice.
Below we are looking at EURCAD which is trading higher in wave (iii) that may slow down around 1.3630. Ideally we will see a fourth wave pull-back from there and back to 1.3500 which could be a long opportunity for short-term traders to catch wave (v) rally.

EURCAD 1h

eurcad695.3.gif
 

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GBPUSD : Price Could Retrace To 1.5800-1.5900 Within Larger Downtrend

Jan 29 2013
Final stages of wave 3)
Pound is falling sharply for the past two weeks from 1.6180 Jan 11 swing high. Notice that decline from that high can be easily counted in five waves. That’s called an impulsive structure which represents huge red wave 3) which is part of much bigger five wave decline started back on Jan 2nd. Therefore we expect much deeper levels on cable, but not just yet. In fact, we think that before market breaks lower again we will see a corrective bounce in wave 4), ideally back to 1.5800-1.5900 range before new sell-off begins. Pair is also approaching some strong Fibo support for current third wave; its 1.618 x wave 1) measured from wave 2) high which very often reacts as a turning point at the end of a third wave. In our case that’s comes in at 1.5650. Bottom line: watch for a corrective bounce in 100-200 pips before new leg lower.

GBPUSD12913.gif
 

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UPDATE II GBPUSD: Pull-back In Progress

Pound is already recovering about we warned you yesterday when we highlighted a five wave fall in wave 3). Notice that current prices are already testing upper trend-line of an impulse channel. Break of this line usually confirms end of a wave 3). In our case it means that market is in a temporary recovery mode, ideally in wave 4 which will retrace back above 1.5800 possibly even to 1.5900 level in sessions ahead.
Larger trend however is still down, but we need to see a completed three wave rise in 4) before we may look for weaker GBP again.

gbpusd696.3.gif


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UPDATE II GBPUSD: Pull-back In Progress

Pound is already recovering about we warned you yesterday when we highlighted a five wave fall in wave 3). Notice that current prices are already testing upper trend-line of an impulse channel. Break of this line usually confirms end of a wave 3). In our case it means that market is in a temporary recovery mode, ideally in wave 4 which will retrace back above 1.5800 possibly even to 1.5900 level in sessions ahead.
Larger trend however is still down, but we need to see a completed three wave rise in 4) before we may look for weaker GBP again.

gbpusd696.3.gif
 
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