EUR/USD Daily Video, August 18, 2011

[Sive Morten]

Good morning,
Although market shows some bullish signs on daily time frame, still during today's trading session it could show some downward move on intraday charts to 1.43 area:




The technical portion of Sive's analysis owes a great deal to Joe DiNapoli's methods, and uses a number of Joe's proprietary indicators. Please note that Sive's analysis is his own view of the market and is not endorsed by Joe DiNapoli or any related companies.

 

[Damian1987]

Hey Sive good morning!

Are we in presence of a possible double repo BUY on 1-hour chart???

 

[Sive Morten]

Hey Sive good morning!

Are we in presence of a possible double repo BUY on 1-hour chart???

Hi Damian,
Hardly, to my mind. Poor thurst down.

 

[Damian1987]

Sive I'm a little bit confused regarding the thrust we are suppose to expect to confirm a double repo. I'm counting 15 bars closing below 3x3 DMA and then close above, below and above with practically the same tops.
On Dinapoli's book he states 8-10 bars is ok but he prefers to see 12 to 15. So I saw a double repo just like Joe likes them, but maybe I shouldn't count the white bars of the thrust, I don't know..I'm confused.
I'm aware that defining thrust by the number of bars is a simple approach, thrust has to do aswell with the shape and the range of bars, if it's steep or not,etc.
Anyways I attach my chart because now that I see a 60 pip bar I dunno if it's due to some news releases or what. thank you Sive, you are teaching me a lot.

 

[Sive Morten]

Sive I'm a little bit confused regarding the thrust we are suppose to expect to confirm a double repo. I'm counting 15 bars closing below 3x3 DMA and then close above, below and above with practically the same tops.
On Dinapoli's book he states 8-10 bars is ok but he prefers to see 12 to 15. So I saw a double repo just like Joe likes them, but maybe I shouldn't count the white bars of the thrust, I don't know..I'm confused.
I'm aware that defining thrust by the number of bars is a simple approach, thrust has to do aswell with the shape and the range of bars, if it's steep or not,etc.
Anyways I attach my chart because now that I see a 60 pip bar I dunno if it's due to some news releases or what. thank you Sive, you are teaching me a lot.

Well, I mean the structure of the thrust. In fact this is move down, but not thrusting move. Look - 2 bars down, consolidation, then gradual move with interrupting white candles. Well, it has worked, formally we can suit it under DRPO term, but it was not perfect. THis is more like a retracement after move up, rather then thrusting move down.
Personally I do not trade such DRPO, but it does not mean that they do not work. IT's just an odds question.

 

[ertore]

Hi to everyone:

This trust down is just 9 bars below 3 by 3 1 hour time frames. Dinapoli suggest bigger timeframes for trust, at least daily with 8 - 10 bars as minimum on daily so for an hour time frame would look for at least 15-18 bars below 3 by 3 as Sive Said, no trust down. Remember Dinapoli suggest open and close below 3 by 3 to be a trust down.

 

[adman]

Euro Aug 18-19 session

Hi Sive and fellow members,

Sive hit it fairly bang on again. In his Aug 18 video, he said euro going to 14300, maybe 14279. It hit low at 14265. Very close to what Sive predicted. Great call, nice going. As for Aug 18-19 session, euro opened up the session by dropping to 14293 moments ago. Sive, are you still bullish on euro, with first target 14744 if breakout of neckline? I think macroeconomics will come into play and the big macro is next Friday's (Aug. 26) Fed conflab at Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Last year Bernanke used that gathering to announce QE2. I'm thinking there will be a big financial market stability announcement this year that will soothe the markets. To ensure a big help from Ben, the markets will continue to fall until probably Aug 24 when buying will suddenly pick up in anticipation. That includes the currency market, risk-on currencies like euro, aussie and loonie. The drop today was so huge, there's only so much further down it can go. However, markets show a propensity to go to extremes past our ability to remain solvent. I'm neutral-to-bearish euro till next Wed Aug 24, but if Sive disagrees, I change my view because Sive has shown a great accuracy in his charting.

 

[Damian1987]

IT's just an odds question.

I know what you mean, thank you man.

 

[Sive Morten]

Hi Sive and fellow members,

Sive hit it fairly bang on again. In his Aug 18 video, he said euro going to 14300, maybe 14279. It hit low at 14265. Very close to what Sive predicted. Great call, nice going. As for Aug 18-19 session, euro opened up the session by dropping to 14293 moments ago. Sive, are you still bullish on euro, with first target 14744 if breakout of neckline? I think macroeconomics will come into play and the big macro is next Friday's (Aug. 26) Fed conflab at Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Last year Bernanke used that gathering to announce QE2. I'm thinking there will be a big financial market stability announcement this year that will soothe the markets. To ensure a big help from Ben, the markets will continue to fall until probably Aug 24 when buying will suddenly pick up in anticipation. That includes the currency market, risk-on currencies like euro, aussie and loonie. The drop today was so huge, there's only so much further down it can go. However, markets show a propensity to go to extremes past our ability to remain solvent. I'm neutral-to-bearish euro till next Wed Aug 24, but if Sive disagrees, I change my view because Sive has shown a great accuracy in his charting.

Hi Adman,
well, you've said right things, thank you for information. It might be useful, especially for those who trade long-term.
I'm not ignore such things, but since we make here day-by-day trading plan, it has a bit limited application (I mean this information), since it does not tell us where support or resistance, where to place stop and where is the profit point...
I mean that we possibly will be able to include this info and use it in trading, when market will start to reflect it in price action. I just can't open position, that based on some suspicions... that's not enough. I need some price action to make a plan. But this info is important.