EUR/USD Daily Video, January 06, 2012

Sive Morten

Special Consultant to the FPA
Messages
12,705
Good morning,
the first part of our medium-term trading plan has been achieved - market has hit all predefined targets.
Now we have to pass to next one - catching reversal pattern, or understanding that market will disrespect this support level



The technical portion of Sive's analysis owes a great deal to Joe DiNapoli's methods, and uses a number of Joe's proprietary indicators. Please note that Sive's analysis is his own view of the market and is not endorsed by Joe DiNapoli or any related companies.
 
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pringy

Private
Messages
18
Thanks Sive for that great analysis. The common mistake I make is taking too much risk, and jumping into a reversal without the trigger pattern. That'll be my focus for 2012!

Question about fibonacci extensions to estimate price targets. I notice that in this video and previous, you used the butterfly pattern to estimate the two recent 1.618 targets. But what about the simple fib extension - from [A] 2 Dec 1.3550 + 14 Dec 1.2940 + [C] 21 Dec 1.3195 ? Is it because there is a clear butterfly pattern, the butterly extensions take bigger precedence and priority?

2nd Question: The 2 recent EURUSD down moves soon after the Euro opening on 4 January & 5 January, this seems to be a common breakout pattern, e.g. a short spike up, and followed by railroad tracks (30 min candles). The day before, 3rd January, there is almost a similar pattern, but it continued upwards, and retraced to a higher confluence level.

Do you have any tips on how you would have traded these intraday? I know you have pre-trade extensive videos describing the probable scenarios and posssible directions, but what would you have done in these 3 scenarios?
 

Sive Morten

Special Consultant to the FPA
Messages
12,705
Thanks Sive for that great analysis. The common mistake I make is taking too much risk, and jumping into a reversal without the trigger pattern. That'll be my focus for 2012!

Question about fibonacci extensions to estimate price targets. I notice that in this video and previous, you used the butterfly pattern to estimate the two recent 1.618 targets. But what about the simple fib extension - from [A] 2 Dec 1.3550 + 14 Dec 1.2940 + [C] 21 Dec 1.3195 ? Is it because there is a clear butterfly pattern, the butterly extensions take bigger precedence and priority?

2nd Question: The 2 recent EURUSD down moves soon after the Euro opening on 4 January & 5 January, this seems to be a common breakout pattern, e.g. a short spike up, and followed by railroad tracks (30 min candles). The day before, 3rd January, there is almost a similar pattern, but it continued upwards, and retraced to a higher confluence level.

Do you have any tips on how you would have traded these intraday? I know you have pre-trade extensive videos describing the probable scenarios and posssible directions, but what would you have done in these 3 scenarios?


Hi Pringy,
there is no any priority - they are just two different measures that could be combined. Some traders use butterflies, if they trade harmonic patterns, others - Fib extensions as DiNapoli. In fact, sometimes I use extension of retracements even if there is no any butterfly.

Concerning intraday tips there can't be any strict rules, because it depends on particular environment. If this happens somewhere in the "middle" I probably will try to use it in direction of overall context. But here - we at solid support, so here is better to wait and do not fall in rush.
 

ameba

Recruit
Messages
8
Hi Sive

I think I was in rush. I entered with some lots just 50 pips above closure. I do not panic but I feels some anxiety.
I didn't close it on Friday. Should I worry about?
 

ward133

Private, 1st Class
Messages
61
Hi Sive

I think I was in rush. I entered with some lots just 50 pips above closure. I do not panic but I feels some anxiety.
I didn't close it on Friday. Should I worry about?

Same here :( ... i dont know also if i should worry .. i can hold it more ... but i read people who post that it could reach 1.2480 before bounce to 1.29 ... dont know if this might be more close to fact .. hope not !
 

Sive Morten

Special Consultant to the FPA
Messages
12,705
Same here :( ... i dont know also if i should worry .. i can hold it more ... but i read people who post that it could reach 1.2480 before bounce to 1.29 ... dont know if this might be more close to fact .. hope not !
Guys, you pay too much attention to analysis of third persons, including mine. You must have your own view on the market to assess what is going on... just to not be scared of price action.

I will prepare weekly research tomorrow - let's take a look together at current behavior...
 
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