EUR/USD Daily Video, January 30, 2012

Sive Morten

Special Consultant to the FPA
Messages
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Good morning,
Market has potentially solid bearish pattern on weekly time frame and it has chances to start at coming week.
So, on daily and lower time frames we have to be ready for potential deep retracement. But anyway - it has start by some solid bearish pattern. Until it will not appear - market will probably continue move up:





The technical portion of Sive's analysis owes a great deal to Joe DiNapoli's methods, and uses a number of Joe's proprietary indicators. Please note that Sive's analysis is his own view of the market and is not endorsed by Joe DiNapoli or any related companies.
 
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much thanks...

Hi Sive,

I wanted to say thank you for your EURUSD daily analysis. I have been following and using your analysis for almost two years, and you have been the biggest asset to my trading. I just wanted to take the time to say much thanks to you.

I hope you will consider adding a service that gives intra-day alerts to important moves and trading opportunities as well.

I never miss your analysis, and I hope you will continue to provide this service. I depend on it.

All the best,
Howard
 
Dear Sive and all,
Following your weekly analysis and todays video, I would like to add a note: As you probably know Fitch CEO announced on January 17th that he considers that Greece has, for all practical reasons, defaulted. It is my opinion that regardless of the PSI outcome due out this week, there is a strong possibility that there will be a down grading of Greece to D or SD or RD. Therefore the euphoria of a happy conclusion of the PSI will be followed by the downgrading. Time wise this in my opinion has a good chance to happen within the next 2-3 weeks. The possibility of a really deep retracement in this case is obvious. Therefore in line with the analysis be alert of tell-tale formations.
 
Dear Sive and all,
Following your weekly analysis and todays video, I would like to add a note: As you probably know Fitch CEO announced on January 17th that he considers that Greece has, for all practical reasons, defaulted. It is my opinion that regardless of the PSI outcome due out this week, there is a strong possibility that there will be a down grading of Greece to D or SD or RD. Therefore the euphoria of a happy conclusion of the PSI will be followed by the downgrading. Time wise this in my opinion has a good chance to happen within the next 2-3 weeks. The possibility of a really deep retracement in this case is obvious. Therefore in line with the analysis be alert of tell-tale formations.

Hi Onenikos, thanks for insight - they are always interesting and informative. I still want to discuss with this this moment:
As I know, Greece has to pay out around 14 Bln in March. This will be the edge moment - will it default or not.
If you, remember when we've talked about Greece situation somewhere in November 2011, we've said, that somehow Greece should let EU drive its budget. This is one of the most significant steps on the way. As you know, Greece has denied this possibility.
Although Onenikos, you may be right, but there is too much other chips on the table. What has a greater value 14 Bln or stability of cash flows inside EU and fiscal policy.
Besides, Fed said that rates will be low till 2014 and QE III is possible - this gives more room for manoeuvres for EU...
What do you think?
 
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