EUR/USD Daily Video, July 12, 2011

[Sive Morten]

Good morning,
I will have limited access to PC, so I've prepared this research a bit earlier than usual.
So, our context for trading is down, but market at oversold and 1.0 Fib target. We need some pullback. Probably 1.42 area will be nice for that:




The technical portion of Sive's analysis owes a great deal to Joe DiNapoli's methods, and uses a number of Joe's proprietary indicators. Please note that Sive's analysis is his own view of the market and is not endorsed by Joe DiNapoli or any related companies.

 

[Geert Anthonis]

Brilliant I must say

Sive, it's good to see you are human too. I appreciate your insights and have learned an awful lot but after 4 months of following them I feel you are wrong more often than right. So I wonder do you make money investing in forex? I do not want to be mean but recently I found some trading data from you on this website dating back to 2009 and there too the results were not very convincing.
On Friday I decided to follow my gut. I jumped in when the market stood at 1.4350 and stacked my short positions with very tight stops. After a disastrous week last week. Went from 500 Euro to 980 all the way down to 77, based on all that bullish sentiment that you and everyone else was talking about but that I just could not see and that, in the end, did not materialized. On Friday 04.00 GMT (noon local time) I opened my first short position for just 3000 Euro (leverage 200:1). Afraid it might go wrong and the market might turn against me the trailing stop was just 35 pips. Still pretty soon my positions set every 5 pips and with a 10 to 25 pips limit started to kick in. By closing time of the market for the week I had almost doubled my money to 135 Eur. My only regret was that I closed all my open positions before the closing of the market. I could hardly believe my eyes, after reading you weekly overview and listening to your daily report when on Monday morning the market opened another 50 pips down. Immediately I opened several larger positions, at least considering I had only 135 Euro. My gut told me there was only one way that baby was going and it was down. Apart from the initial position I played it save the rest of the day to more than double my money again and today, at least up to now, 08:30 GMT I again more than doubled my money. When the market reached 1.3850 I pulled the plug. It has since gone back to 1.3905. Did not expect that but I knew something was up. Better to wait.
Though you mention fundamentals I feels to me you do not think them as important as the technical analysis. I find that weird to say the least.
A few weeks back someone posted a short message on your weekly overview forum. As there was some publicity or so in it it was gone the next day. Still that guys said the Euro would be at 0.9 to 0.85 to the US$ by years end. At that time you were talking of the Euro hitting 1.60 US$. The Euro situation looks really bad right now. Unless the US economy or its politics unravel or something disastrous happens I do not see any silver lining for the Euro. 1/1 Eur/USD I think it is very likely.
Thank you for your analysis it is one way of looking at things, but as you told me a few weeks back yours is but one of many. In the end we are the ones who should make the choices to act on them.

 

[asif faryad]

previous comment

Sive dedicates his time and professional experience to us.

He always makes it clear that it depends on what type of time frame and what your appetite to risk is.

Your comments are out of order so stick to your GUT and i am sure you will have a GUT ACHE SOON!!!

Asif

Thanks Sive for your great ANALYSIS ALWAYS!!!!!!!

 

[Icarus]

Sive, it's good to see you are human too. I appreciate your insights and have learned an awful lot but after 4 months of following them I feel you are wrong more often than right. So I wonder do you make money investing in forex? I do not want to be mean but recently I found some trading data from you on this website dating back to 2009 and there too the results were not very convincing.
On Friday I decided to follow my gut. I jumped in when the market stood at 1.4350 and stacked my short positions with very tight stops. After a disastrous week last week. Went from 500 Euro to 980 all the way down to 77, based on all that bullish sentiment that you and everyone else was talking about but that I just could not see and that, in the end, did not materialized. On Friday 04.00 GMT (noon local time) I opened my first short position for just 3000 Euro (leverage 200:1). Afraid it might go wrong and the market might turn against me the trailing stop was just 35 pips. Still pretty soon my positions set every 5 pips and with a 10 to 25 pips limit started to kick in. By closing time of the market for the week I had almost doubled my money to 135 Eur. My only regret was that I closed all my open positions before the closing of the market. I could hardly believe my eyes, after reading you weekly overview and listening to your daily report when on Monday morning the market opened another 50 pips down. Immediately I opened several larger positions, at least considering I had only 135 Euro. My gut told me there was only one way that baby was going and it was down. Apart from the initial position I played it save the rest of the day to more than double my money again and today, at least up to now, 08:30 GMT I again more than doubled my money. When the market reached 1.3850 I pulled the plug. It has since gone back to 1.3905. Did not expect that but I knew something was up. Better to wait.
Though you mention fundamentals I feels to me you do not think them as important as the technical analysis. I find that weird to say the least.
A few weeks back someone posted a short message on your weekly overview forum. As there was some publicity or so in it it was gone the next day. Still that guys said the Euro would be at 0.9 to 0.85 to the US$ by years end. At that time you were talking of the Euro hitting 1.60 US$. The Euro situation looks really bad right now. Unless the US economy or its politics unravel or something disastrous happens I do not see any silver lining for the Euro. 1/1 Eur/USD I think it is very likely.
Thank you for your analysis it is one way of looking at things, but as you told me a few weeks back yours is but one of many. In the end we are the ones who should make the choices to act on them.

Hi Geert, Certainly, you are entitled to your opinion, and appear to be new to this forum or you might have a different view. I have to say that, having followed Mr. Morten for the better part of a year, he is definitely right much more often than he is wrong and has helped many of us make a lot of pips. The main thing is that you and he have different trading styles and you should use the style that works for you. His style in teaching us is more cautious than the one you are using, which, as students, we appreciate. If you will fully study the analysis for the week, I think that you will see that it is incorrect to say that Mr. Morten was "wrong" in his analysis. He tells us to look for certain signs to see if the pair will go up or down and that is what we do. If you read his analysis, you will see that he says market may well go to 1.37. He has said this several times this week and last week as well. Just because he himself does not want to enter short from certain levels does not mean he does not see the bearish bias. He has said every day this week that market has bearish bias to 1.37 and may then reverse to 1.52 or 1.6. You should understand what he is saying before you criticize, as a lot of us have made many profits from his guidance and analyses. Respectfully, sir, I think you owe Mr. Morten a re-evaluation as you are criticizing an analysis (both this week and last week's) which you have not studied thoroughly enough to understand. He has spoken of this possible move to 1.37 for several weeks but trades in a different manner than you do. I am sure we all wish you well with your trading style and that you continue to make many pips, but please do not criticize what you don't understand.

 

[asif faryad]

Well said!!!!

Well said Icrus very well written.

I second this view.

I am sure as he hasnt replied he may have a GUT PROBLEM TODAY!!

 

[Geert Anthonis]

So telling it like it is is not allowed.

Thank you, Icarus for your reaction. You are completely correct in what you are saying. Let me add I am still following Sive's analysis because I do value it. The fact he does it every day and for free should be applauded. Still my personal experience has been that no matter how I try I lose money trying to wait for the right moments to enter, the retracements, the stop grabbers, etc... His analysis may be great and is what I appreciate. I am just saying I think his advice on how to enter the market in my modest view is off more often than not. That is my experience. I do hope I am entitled to it.
Mr. Asif it has been almost two years since I started in forex and I have learned a lot the hard way in that time and lost close to 10,000 Euro and though I am still learning I do understand most, though I admit not all, of what Mr Morten says. And no I did not have a problem today, just busy. Plus made a nice profit playing the upswing, if you need to know (+ 252 Euro).
Not that you will believe me but here once again is my 2 pips worth. The US will solve their debt ceiling crisis. Until then the USD may suffer a little bit. Yet unless the EU can come up with a comprehensive plan on how to solve all its debt problems, and I mean all (don't hold your breath for that one), there is only one way for the Euro to go and that is down. 1/1 is really not that far fetch once you come to think of it. It was the original planned/set value of the Euro to the USD.

 

[Icarus]

So telling it like it is is not allowed.

Geert, I never said or even implied that you had no right to say what you think. I was only saying that Mr. Morten has been telling us the bias is to the downside all week, so your statements were not accurate. I am happy that you have found a system that works for you and you should use what works for you. Everyone has their own trading method (another thing he states repeatedly) and he doesn't want us to be robots, but to take what we learn and apply it to our own trading style and tolerance. That his trading style may not work for you does not mean his analyses are faulty, as they are almost always accurate. That is the point I am trying to make. I wish you many pips.

 

[Sive Morten]

Hi Guys,
My answer on yours discussion may be will seem like too diplomatic, but both of you are right.

Geert right, that I'm not 100% at bull eye (it will be great if at least 50% ). I'm not a super trader, like, say, the same DiNapoli, DeMark, Williams and others. That's absolutely true. I'm not a prophet.
I just share with my opinion. And this opinion is free of charge. You may follow it, you may not - the choice is up to you. Actually I should not give any definite trade hints, because my part of forum is educational. I have to help those people who find this approach to trading logical and acceptable and I just help them how to use different tools, to build trading plan etc...

Only thing, that I suppose you're not absolutely correct is with long term forecasts. You've said "others said that EU will be 0.95"... Where is the analysis?
I might say, that EUR will be 0.4 or 2.20 and what's next? I need some proof, some logical foundation of that.
I've told that market could reach 1.60 on monthly - because there are some reasons for that, and I have to show all scenarios that I see.
Second, concerning fundamentals. They are important, but not in short-term trading. Since our analysis is daily long term fundamentals are not crucial, since your trade lasts 2-4 days max, and may be even shorter.
I'm not telling about data release days - this is not fundamental picture itself but some adjustments, that's why it could lead to strong moves.

Icarus, you're also right.
The difference is that you and Geert are searching different in my work. The better way to use it - as education, if you like DiNapoli style. Or as add-on to your own analysis, if sometimes you just do not have some "last part" of puzzle. May be you will find something, that you do not see.
That's all. My analysis is not a signal - buy sell, tp and sl...
I'll try to lead you to your own thinking, that you start to think independently and make your own analysis.
But I try also to point some crucial things that important and not obvious