EUR/USD Daily Video, March 07, 2011

[Sive Morten]

Good morning,
I expect some retracement to the downside during this week, that could start from 1.4033-1.41 area. But how deep it will be, depending on the way, how it will develop:





The technical portion of Sive's analysis owes a great deal to Joe DiNapoli's methods, and uses a number of Joe's proprietary indicators. Please note that Sive's analysis is his own view of the market and is not endorsed by Joe DiNapoli or any related companies.

 

[Egon Kecskes]

Hi Sive,

I opened some short positions during the NFP data disclosure on Friday around 1.39550. I am glad that you would predict a retracement to the downside towards the 1.3900 area. I wonder what would be your opinion regarding to the long term movement of the EUR/USD especially looking at the oil prices, widening unrest in the North African Arabic countries, and the European debt problem. Do you think that the current bullish trend that was developing in the past 6-8 days would turn back to bearish in the next couple of weeks?

Thanks for your analysis again.

Egon Kecskes

 

[Sive Morten]

Hi Sive,

I opened some short positions during the NFP data disclosure on Friday around 1.39550. I am glad that you would predict a retracement to the downside towards the 1.3900 area. I wonder what would be your opinion regarding to the long term movement of the EUR/USD especially looking at the oil prices, widening unrest in the North African Arabic countries, and the European debt problem. Do you think that the current bullish trend that was developing in the past 6-8 days would turn back to bearish in the next couple of weeks?

Thanks for your analysis again.

Egon Kecskes

Hi, Egon
It's a bit large question. There is an opinion that EUR above 1.38-1.40 looks as overbought from fundamental point of you.
From the other side - If USD was not be able to return their position on all this turmoil, it's difficult to suggest that it should happen now. Besides now ECB hawkish commentaries are working.
As a result, I think that it will be difficult for EUR to show very strong move up, but it's absolutely possible to reach our monthly target 1.4350-1.44

If you let me to express my own opinion. I think that too often you mix different fact, that actually do not touch your possition. For instance - you enter on 60 min chart to gain 50-60 pips and trying to analize your position from fundamental point of view. This is not quite appropriate. Try to use corresponding analysis to your possition.

 

[Egon Kecskes]

Dear SIve,

Thank you for the quick reply to my questions, and also about its content regarding to the possible short/mid term move of EUR/USD. I fully agree with the opinion that EUR is overbought against the USD but no sign of trend change. I try to ride on the downward retracement, close my positions and sit on my hands.

Do you think that the green back would also lose its value against the JPY or the CHF in the next couple of days?

Best regards,

Egon

 

[ALF]

EUR NZD cross

Hi Sive,

Could you please give us your comments on the EURNZD cross for the latest development of this pair (Montly, weekly and daily trends, as well as the main levels of support and targets for the future possible moves).

Thanks in advance.

Have a great time!