EUR/USD Daily Video, March 09, 2012

[Sive Morten]

Good morning,
looks like it has happening what we are awaiting for - hourly trend has turned bearish and price has pullback down from 3/8 daily resistance:





The technical portion of Sive's analysis owes a great deal to Joe DiNapoli's methods, and uses a number of Joe's proprietary indicators. Please note that Sive's analysis is his own view of the market and is not endorsed by Joe DiNapoli or any related companies.

 

[adman]

Great call, Sive, although bad day for me because of weak stomach. Learned a good lesson, though. You mentioned 13290 (big R) as a good entry point, so I waited for that. Market only got to 13277 and I kept waiting (hoping) it would rise back to 13290. I eventually decided to wait till the US non-farm payrolls release. By then market was 13200 (just before announcement) & it started falling right after. I jumped in with market order, got filled at 13183, mkt went to 13161, everything looked good, suddenly market reversed & I got taken out at 13177. I had just put a stop buy there to protect profit, thought I was safe...lesson learned, I was too low, one never knows what mkt will do short-term, your suggested stop in your vid was 50 pips, the risk-reward was good enough to do that. Dumb move by me. Got to be willing to take a bit of an early loss. After I got stopped, market turned & swooned down fast, hitting low of 13097 before ending day at 13118. I got suckered by the fact that non-farm payrolls were better than expected & in past couple of years that meant the euro would rise (risk-on). This time it was outweighed by the fact the ECB loan packages are (supposedly) over, Germany's Jurgen Stark came out highly critical of ECB getting as involved as it did, etc. Even though US trade deficit was bigger than expected Fri morning, euro still lost out. Which was exactly what you predicted. Very hard to predict the market, but somehow you are able to more times than not.