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EUR/USD Daily Video, May 18, 2011

Discussion in 'Sive Morten- Currencies and Gold Video Analysis' started by Sive Morten, May 18, 2011.

  1. Sive Morten

    Sive Morten Special Consultant to the FPA

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    Hello everybody,
    Although market is showing some upside move - this move is not very impressive and has no qualities of momentum shifting. I do not trust it much, and have some suspicions about it:




    The technical portion of Sive's analysis owes a great deal to Joe DiNapoli's methods, and uses a number of Joe's proprietary indicators. Please note that Sive's analysis is his own view of the market and is not endorsed by Joe DiNapoli or any related companies.
     
    #1 Sive Morten, May 18, 2011
    Lasted edited by : Aug 15, 2015
  2. davedubai

    davedubai Private, 1st Class

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    Yes upswing is illusionary. probably 1.3760 is in offing ?

    Dear Mr. Sive ,

    I was reviewing few charts last month on monthly time frame and was of opinion that the market should close below 1.4356 on monthly basis for a downward trigger but that did not happen before month end and the new high of recent uptrend was seen at 1. 4939. The rejection come from .618 Fib resistance at 1.4998 for A_B_C being 0.8225 -1.3665 -1.1639 being a strong resistance from which previous tops were rejected. The candle is presently well supported on cloud but the bearish trend on longer run is already underway from 1.6039 top and with a high volatility which was never in market pre 2006. The candle are long and have longer spikes and shadows. I only see a bear cloud and the possibility of testing 50% support at 1.3760 before a trend confirmation .
     

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    #2 davedubai, May 18, 2011
    Last edited: May 18, 2011
  3. Sive Morten

    Sive Morten Special Consultant to the FPA

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    Hi Dave,
    it's a bit difficult to read your charts - there are a lot of tools there... but it seems that current reversal mostly not due 0.618 resistance but due monthly Overbought. Read weekly thread for details...
    And why your history on EUR farther than 1991? There was no EUR before that...
    Second chart looks like a custom time frame, not monthly?
     
  4. davedubai

    davedubai Private, 1st Class

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    Dear Sive ,

    Sorry for the charts that I posted yesterday with a lots of tools. I have now removed all unnecessary tool and it should be much better for review. I was focusing on longer time frame. The Fib extension1 from Oct 2000 (A 0.8224) Dec 2004 (B 1.3665) Nov. 2005 (C 1.1639) The highest euro 1.6036 was traded but during april , may & june 2008 the eur never closed above 0.764 fib resistance. The same happened at 0.618 resistance at 1.5140 / 44 both the time in Nov. 2009 and Dec 2009 Eur never closed above 1.4998 . In the same view the eur is currently trading below 50% fib ( 1. 4356 ) the monthly close above this will have a bullish view on monthly time frame , i guess . but closing below 1.4356 and below the trend line joining 1.6037 , 1.5171 will confirm the bearish move to nearby support to 1.3757 / 1.3715 which are fib .382 fib support for either of fib extension 1 & 2 . I am not sure if this much wider aspect is right to analyse? but in all the three instances the EUR has failed to close above Fib resistances on monthly time frame.
    Appreciate your efforts in bring about knowledge of Forex to distant learners like us. Thanks !
     

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  5. Sive Morten

    Sive Morten Special Consultant to the FPA

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    Hi Dave,
    Looks like there is some confusion with Fib retracement levels. You've said:
    There could not be any Fib resistance, since this was all time high on EUR. To say, that this also was a 0.764 Fib resistance, you need existance of higher high. I suggest that you are speaking about extension rather. But 0.786 Extention ratio is minor. (look at my chart)
    The same is here - there was 0.786 resistance, not 0.618 from the major high (1.61 area) and 0.88 resistance from recent high 1.5140 area.

    Hm, 1.4356 - 50% Fib? I can't find from what swing you've built it.
    1.3757 - 0.382 Fib support - OK. And not just "support" - this is monthly Confluence support - here is 0.618 from most recent swing up also.

    But now I do not see some clear signs/sgnals, that market shoud definitely reach this area. If it will not be able to move above 1.50, then probably, yes, we will see monthly AB-CD.
    But currently we await BC up move. Will it be just retracement, or market will continue move up - who knows...
     

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