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EUR/USD Daily Video, November 14, 2011

Discussion in 'Sive Morten- Currencies and Gold Video Analysis' started by Sive Morten, Nov 12, 2011.

  1. Sive Morten

    Sive Morten Special Consultant to the FPA

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    Good morning,
    We again have to focus mostly on intraday charts, at least in the beginning of the week, since as weekly as daily time frames do not exclude possibility of moving in any direction:




    The technical portion of Sive's analysis owes a great deal to Joe DiNapoli's methods, and uses a number of Joe's proprietary indicators. Please note that Sive's analysis is his own view of the market and is not endorsed by Joe DiNapoli or any related companies.
     
    #1 Sive Morten, Nov 12, 2011
    Lasted edited by : Aug 15, 2015
  2. Venelin

    Venelin Master Sergeant

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    Thank you Sive! I really liked your analysis, especially the hint of a potential butterfly sell right from 1.618 XPO! Will see, I hope the reaching of 1.3823 will be in a matter of Btfly!
     
  3. Sazu

    Sazu Corporal

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    Been away for awhile but it is refreshing to come back and find that you are still right on the money! Great Briefing.
     
  4. samfx

    samfx Private, 1st Class

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    Hi Sive,

    Are you still expecting a butterfly sell on the one hour time frame, or the retracement that happened is too deep which cancels the possibility of that butterfly to form?
    It did retrace to the 0.618 level and it's flirting around that level!

    If you take a look on my chart attached I have the green line which is the 3 by 3 MA can we use this for the DROP buy setup if it closes below the green line and then
    retraced back up? Same setup as before from last week that you showed us?

    One more thing, when the MACD is pointing down (bearish) and the market reached a Fib level 0.382 or 0.618 and there is agreement do you still enter long or you always
    wait for the MACD to point up (Bulish) before entering any long trade?

    Thank you
     

    Attached Files:

    #4 samfx, Nov 14, 2011
    Last edited: Nov 14, 2011
  5. Sive Morten

    Sive Morten Special Consultant to the FPA

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    Hi Samfx.
    No, we can't count on Butterfly, since market has broken significant support without any respect - pivot + K-support on hourly.

    You're right about DRPO, but probably it mostly will be DRPO LAL.

    Although DiNapoli treats Confluence support as weak directional pattern, still using of MACD depends on what is your context time frame. Currently you're asking a bit advanced question. If you want to trade trend - then you have to wait, when hourly MACD will turn bullish, then drop your time frame to 5-15 min chart and wait for nearest retracement down to enter.
    If you want to trade K-area as directional, since you do not need hourly trend - all that you need is wait when 15 min chart will shift bullish and enter also at retracement. But this is rather risky trade, I usually avoid trading K-areas as directional signals, except may be long-term K-areas.

    Speaking about our situation, daily trend is bearish, so we have not context to enter long. The point that we've said - market could reach 1.3830 does not mean that I call you to enter Long. Besides, we've awaited for Bearish reversal pattern. Probably you may trade some bullish bias on 5-15 min chart, but it's a bit shorty. All that I've wanted to say is to wait to enter short, since market could move a bit higher.
     

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