Forex EUR/USD Daily Video, November 19, 2019

Brett Reynolds

Sergeant Major
Messages
647
Well 50% retracement of last weeks move down has been reached..so i would need to see Daily close and strong Bullish signal to go long.! It's very tricky to trade at the moment...but overall Trend is still down...so i do not like to trade against a long term trend.!?
 

Sive Morten

Special Consultant to the FPA
Messages
12,710
Morning everybody,

So let's keep going with EUR. Recent session is inside one, but price action starts to form pennant pattern, which is potentially bullish, at least theoretically. In fact, bulls and bears stand right now at equal conditions. Bears have advantage of strong resistance and downside momentum, while bulls have thrusting action and tight standing right under resistance. As always it happens with triangles - we know the direction on breakout.
eur_d_20_11_19.png


Thus, here we have to ways - either try to take position inside the triangle, or, conservative approach - take position on retracement after breakout:
eur_4h_20_11_19.png


As always both ways have its own adv. and disadv. When you take position inside the triangle -you take it at quiet market and it is possible to place tight stop. The negative moment - you depend on breakout and this brings some gambling in trading process. While taking position after breakout gives you more difficult entry process and worse price levels but you know the direction. So, choice is up to you.

For example, if you intend to go long right now - on 1H chart your stop should be somewhere under 1.1060 support area, while taking short position suggests placing stop above 1.1080. By the way, here, on 1H chart we have another bullish thing. Take a look that while MACD trend stands bearish - EUR is forming higher lows. It means that inner power exists on the market. Thus, it is not obvious yet that particular downside breakout will happen.Situation stands difficult also because of abscence of clear patterns. Finally, DAX index shows bearish signs, which indirectly supports EUR.

If all these stuff sounds confusing - sit on the hands and wait for breakout, or for clear patterns, at least. If situation doesn't hesitate you - go ahead, it is possible to take position inside the triangle.
eur_1h_20_11_19.png
 
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