EUR/USD Daily Video, November 29, 2011

[Sive Morten]

Good morning,
retracement on EUR/USD is under way. There is a high probability that market will proceed higher - at least to 1.3460 area:




The technical portion of Sive's analysis owes a great deal to Joe DiNapoli's methods, and uses a number of Joe's proprietary indicators. Please note that Sive's analysis is his own view of the market and is not endorsed by Joe DiNapoli or any related companies.

 

[samfx]

Hi Sive,

Thank you for today's analysis it's very educational...

Since market have high probability to retrace to the conference resistance and agreement with Fib expansion level (1.3455 - 1.3475) that mean we can try to enter long targeting this area of strong resistance level.

Market now is at 1.3320 area, if we place a stop below Fib support 0.618 (1.3275) about 50 pips stop loss and targeting the 1.3450 and up area that would give us a 3:1 risk/reward.

The only think that I don't like about that is market now below Pivot point level by 20 pips or so and it's forming a bearish candle formation on the 4hour chart. And also it's below the trend line!!

What do you think about that, your opinion is valuable to my trading decision.

Thank you again...

 

[Sive Morten]

Hi Sive,

Thank you for today's analysis it's very educational...

Since market have high probability to retrace to the conference resistance and agreement with Fib expansion level (1.3455 - 1.3475) that mean we can try to enter long targeting this area of strong resistance level.

Market now is at 1.3320 area, if we place a stop below Fib support 0.618 (1.3275) about 50 pips stop loss and targeting the 1.3450 and up area that would give us a 3:1 risk/reward.

The only think that I don't like about that is market now below Pivot point level by 20 pips or so and it's forming a bearish candle formation on the 4hour chart. And also it's below the trend line!!

What do you think about that, your opinion is valuable to my trading decision.

Thank you again...

Hi Samfx,
In fact you can do it, if your context for trading hourly chart or 4-hour chart, and you trade, say, on 30-min or lower time frame. Logical stop, as you've said correctly should be below "c' point of 4-hour AB-CD or below gap.
Speaking about pivot - you should treat as a detail in overall context, not as determination pattern. It is important by close, your trade is intraday and you have different context. Weekly pivot is more important for daily time frame.

 

[Sazu]

Many thanks Sive, The market hit the .618 and slightly above to 1.3443 (Look like a stop grabber on the 240tf) around 0600 EST in the US. Unfortunately I did not catch the market until just now so I missed that golden opportunity.