EUR/USD, GBP/USD, GOLD - Forecast by Anton Kolhanov

Anton Kolhanov

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EUR/USD, 29.08.16: downtrend to 1.1100
Main scenario:
The pair is trading along an downtrend with target on 1.1100, that may be expected to continue, while pair is trading below resistance level 1.1230.

Alternative scenario:
An uptrend will start as soon, as the pair rises above resistance level 1.1230, which will be followed by moving up to resistance level 1.1320.




GBP/USD, 29.08.16: downtrend to 1.3035
Main scenario:
The pair is trading along an downtrend with target on 1.3035, that may be expected to continue, while pair is trading below resistance level 1.3180.

Alternative scenario:
An uptrend will start as soon, as the pair rises above resistance level 1.3180, which will be followed by moving up to resistance level 1.3235 and 1.3300.




GOLD, 29.08.16: downtrend to 1310
Main scenario:
The pair is trading along an downtrend with target on 1310, may be expected to continue, while pair is trading below resistance level 1322.

Alternative scenario:
An uptrend will start as soon, as the pair rises above resistance level 1322, which will be followed by moving up to resistance level 1335.




WTI forecast, 29.08.16: downtrend to 44.55
Main scenario:
The pair is trading along an downtrend with target on 44.50, that may be expected to continue in case the market drops below support level 46.40.

Alternative scenario:
Possible correction from support 46.40 to resistance 47.90.

 

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EUR/USD. Weekly forecast, September 19 - 23: sideways between 1.1145 - 1.1235
Main scenario:
The pair is trading along an sideways trend between support 1.1145 and resistance 1.1235.
The downtrend may be expected to continue in case the market drops below support level 1.1145, which will be followed by reaching support level 1.0975.

Alternative scenario:
An uptrend will start as soon, as the pair rises above resistance level 1.1235, which will be followed by moving up to resistance level 1.1320 and if it keeps on moving up above that level, we may expect the pair to reach resistance level 1.1450.




GBP/USD, Weekly forecast, September 19 - 23: downtrend to 1.2920
Main scenario:
The pair is trading along an downtrend with target on 1.2920, that may be expected to continue, while pair is trading below resistance level 1.3075.

Alternative scenario:
An uptrend will start as soon, as the pair rises above resistance level 1.3075, which will be followed by moving up to resistance level 1.3200 and if it keeps on moving up above that level, we may expect the pair to reach resistance level 1.3435.




GOLD, Weekly forecast, September 19 - 23: downtrend to 1294
Main scenario:
The pair is trading along an downtrend with target on 1294, that may be expected to continue, while pair is trading below resistance level 1320.

Alternative scenario:
An uptrend will start as soon, as the pair rises above resistance level 1320, which will be followed by moving up to resistance level 1350.




WTI, Weekly forecast, September 19 - 23: downtrend to 41.10
Main scenario:
The pair is trading along an sideways trend between support 43.50 and resistane 44.45.
The downtrend may be expected to continue in case the market drops below support level 43.50, which will be followed by reaching support level 41.10.

Alternative scenario:
An uptrend will start as soon, as the pair rises above resistance level 44.45, which will be followed by moving up to resistance level 45.70 and 47.30.

 

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EUR/USD, 21.09.16
Main scenario:

The pair is trading along an sideways trend between support 1.1115 and resistance 1.1195.
The downtrend may be expected to continue in case the market drops below support level 1.1115, which will be followed by reaching support level 1.0975.

Alternative scenario:
An uptrend will start as soon, as the pair rises above resistance level 1.1195, which will be followed by moving up to resistance level 1.1235 and 1.1320.





GBP/USD, 21.09.16
Main scenario:

The pair is trading along an sideways trend between support 1.2920 and resistance 1.3035.
The downtrend may be expected to continue in case the market drops below support level 1.2920, which will be followed by reaching support level 1.2700.

Alternative scenario:
An uptrend will start as soon, as the pair rises above resistance level 1.3035, which will be followed by moving up to resistance level 1.3200.





GOLD, 21.09.16
Main scenario:

The pair is trading along an sideways trend between support 1313 and resistance 1323.
The downtrend may be expected to continue in case the market drops below support level 1313, which will be followed by reaching support level 1294.

Alternative scenario:
An uptrend will start as soon, as the pair rises above resistance level 1323, which will be followed by moving up to resistance level 1329 and 1340.





WTI, 21.09.16
Main scenario:

The pair is trading along an sideways trend between support 44.15 and resistance 45.70.
The downtrend may be expected to continue in case the market drops below support level 44.15, which will be followed by reaching support level 43.50 and 42.80.

Alternative scenario:
An uptrend will start as soon, as the pair rises above resistance level 45.70, which will be followed by moving up to resistance level 47.30.

 

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EUR/USD, Weekly forecast, September 26 - 30: uptrend with target on 1.1320 and possible 1.1450
Main scenario:
The pair is trading along an uptrend with target on 1.1320 and if it keeps on moving up above that level, we may expect the pair to reach resistance level 1.1450. Uptrend may be expected to continue, while pair is trading above support level 1.1215.

Alternative scenario:
An downtrend will start as soon, as the pair drops below support level 1.1215, which will be followed by a move down to support level 1.1145 - 1.1050.




GBP/USD, Weekly forecast, September 26 - 30: break up of 1.2990 will start uptrend to 1.3300
Main scenario:
The pair is trading along a sideways trend between support 1.2900 and resistance 1.2990, with break up of that market will start uptrend with target on resistance levels 1.3220 - 1.3300.

Alternative scenario:
The downtrend may be expected to continue in case the market drops below support level 1.2900, which will be followed by reaching support level 1.2700.




GOLD, Weekly forecast, September 26 - 30: break up of 1341 will open target on 1355
Main scenario:
The pair is trading along a sideways trend between support 1332 and resistance 1341, where uptrend may be expected to continue in case the market rises above resistance level 1341.

Alternative scenario:
An downtrend will start as soon, as the pair drops below support level 1332, which will be followed by a move down to support level 1310.




WTI, Weekly forecast, September 26 - 30: sideways trend between 44.15 - 46.20 and waiting for OPEC
Main scenario:
The pair is trading along an uptrend with target on 46.20 and if it keeps on moving up above that level, we may expect the pair to reach resistance level 47.30 and to 48.85.

Alternative scenario:
An downtrend will start as soon, as the pair drops below support level 44.15, which will be followed by a move down to support level 43.00.

 

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CORN, September 26 - 30: uptrend with target on 320
Main scenario:
The pair is trading along a downtrend with target on 320, that may be expected to continue, while pair is trading below resistance level 333.

Alternative scenario:
An uptrend will start as soon as the pair rises above resistance level 333, which will be followed by a move up to resistance level 342.





SOYBEAN, September 26 - 30: break down of 943 will open target on 915
Main scenario:
The pair is trading along a sideways trend between support 943 and resistance 951, where downtrend will start as soon, as the pair drops below support level 943, which will be followed by a move down to support level 915.

Alternative scenario:
An uptrend will start as soon as the pair rises above resistance level 951, which will be followed by a move up to resistance level 979.





COTTON, September 26 - 30: break down of $69 will open target to $67.30
Main scenario:
The pair is trading along a sideways trend between support 69.60 and resistance 71.00, where downtrend will start as soon, as the pair drops below support level 69.60, which will be followed by a move down to support level 67.30.

Alternative scenario:
An uptrend will start as soon as the pair rises above resistance level 71.00, which will be followed by a move up to resistance level 73.60.

 

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DAILY FORECAST, september 7
EURUSD
Market is trading sideways between support 1.1908 and resistance 1.1977 waiting for todays (thursday) EU % rates and after Draghi speech, where the last will be most important.
The uptrend may be expected to continue in case the market rises above resistance level 1.1977, which will be followed by reaching resistance level 1.2065, where next strong resistance we have on 1.2230.
An downtrend will start as soon, as the market drops below support level 1.1908, which will be followed by a move down to support level 1.1760.






GBPUSD

Market is trading in uptrend with target on key resistance level 1.3135 and the uptrend may be expected to continue, while market is trading above support level 1.3010 - 1.2975 and if after today's Draghi speech nothing will not be changed.
But if Draghi will provoke downtrend in euro, that will made the same influence on gbpusd too. In that case downtrend will start as soon, as the market drops below support level 1.2975, which will be followed by a move down to support level 1.2900.



GOLD

Market is running up with target to key resistance level 1349 and uptrend may be expected to continue in case the market rises above resistance level 1339.
But today's ECB news can change this uptrend, in case of that downtrend will start as soon, as the market drops below support level 1331, which will be followed by a move down to support level 1314.



US CRUDE OIL

Market is trading in uptrend with target on the key level 49.70 and uptrend may be expected to continue, while market is trading above support level 48.56.
Today we have "Crude Oil Inventories" news, that can start downtrend if the market will drops below support level 48.56, which will be followed by a move down to support level 47.61 and if it keeps on moving down below that level, we may expect the market to reach support level 46.75.

 

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DAILY FORECAST
EURUSD

The market is trading along an uptrend with target on 1.2035, that may be expected to continue, while market is trading above support level 1.1953.
An downtrend will start as soon, as the market drops below support level 1.1923, which will be followed by a move down to support level 1.1870 and 1.1821.





GBPUSD

The market is trading along an uptrend with target on 1.3390, that may be expected to continue, while market is trading above support level 1.3295.
An downtrend will start as soon, as the market drops below support level 1.3295, which will be followed by a move down to support level 1.3215.




GOLD

The market is trading along a sideways trend between support 1327 and ressitance level 1333.
An uptrend will start as soon as the market rises above resistance level 1333, which will be followed by a move up to resistance level 1339 and 1348.
An downtrend will start as soon, as the market drops below support level 1327, which will be followed by a move down to support level 1314.





US CRUDE OIL

The market is trading along an uptrend with target on 48.85 - 49.13, that may be expected to continue, while market is trading above support level 48.09.
An downtrend will start as soon, as the market drops below support level 48.09, which will be followed by a move down to support level 47.40

 

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Weekly / Long-Term Forecast, September 25 - 29
LEADING INDICATORS


Main news of this week:
Wednesday: OIL - inventories
Thursday: US - GDP
Friday: GBP - GDP

EURUSD
Weekly forecast, September 25 - 29

Euro zone economy still recovering: last week we have rising of Manufacturing PMI from 57.1 to 58.2 and Services PMI from 54.7 to 55.6. Same time dollar can’t show the same picture and Services PMI felt from 55.9 to 55.1. Looking on weekly chart, technically market now is going to get main resistance level 1.2237 and fundamental situation also confirm this, so seems that soon triangle on H4 will be broken up…

The market is trading along a sideways trend between support 1.1857 and resistance 1.2028.
An uptrend will start as soon as the market rises above resistance level 1.2028, which will be followed by a move up to resistance level 1.2237.
An downtrend will start as soon, as the market drops below support level 1.1857, which will be followed by a move down to support level 1.1565.






GBPUSD
Weekly forecast, September 25 - 29
The market is trading along a sideways trend between support 1.3452 and resistance 1.3589.
An uptrend will start as soon as the market rises above resistance level 1.3589, which will be followed by a move up to resistance level 1.3915.
An downtrend will start as soon, as the market drops below support level 1.3452, which will be followed by a move down to support level 1.3135.







GOLD
Weekly forecast, September 25 - 29

Market now is trading on main support level 1288 and while we have falling of dollar, gold have more chance to start from this levels uptrend, then to continue downtrend. Anyway, level 1305 is strong resistance and before its break up, market will be trading sideways between 1288 and 1305.

An uptrend will start as soon as the market rises above resistance level 1305, which will be followed by a move up to resistance level 1346.
The downtrend may be expected to continue in case the market drops below support level 1288, which will be followed by reaching support level 1268.





CRUDE OIL

LEADING INDICATORS




Weekly forecast, September 25 - 29


Technically now market is going in uptrend to the price 53.95 (weekly chart), but fundamentally we have production restoring and rising of inventories, that very soon should to push price down. And then we have 2 scenarios:
1. Or market will continue very-very fast uptrend to the level 52.87 and then 53.95;
2. Or break up of main resistance 49.70 was temporary and false, after that very-very soon we will have its re-break down with further downtrend to the support 47.05 and 41.40 (weekly chart).

So:
The market is trading along an uptrend with target on 52.87, where uptrend may be expected to continue, while market is trading above support level 50.33 – 49.70.
An downtrend will start as soon, as the market drops below support level 49.70, which will be followed by a move down to support level 47.05.



 

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EURUSD

The market is trading along a sideways trend between support 1.1837 and resistance 1.1859.
An downtrend will start as soon, as the market drops below support level 1.1837 - 1.1821, which will be followed by a move down to support level 1.1760.
An uptrend will start as soon as the market rises above resistance level 1.1859, which will be followed by a move up to resistance level 1.1893 and if it keeps on moving up above that level, we may expect the market to reach resistance level 1.1947.







GBPUSD

The market is trading along a sideways trend between support 1.3452 - 1.3426 and resistance 1.3495.
An downtrend will start as soon, as the market drops below support level 1.3426, which will be followed by a move down to support level 1.3295.
An uptrend will start as soon as the market rises above resistance level 1.3495, which will be followed by a move up to resistance level 1.3589.




GOLD

The market is trading along a sideways trend between support 1305 and resistance 1315.
An downtrend will start as soon, as the market drops below support level 1305, which will be followed by a move down to support level 1290.
An uptrend will start as soon as the market rises above resistance level 1315, which will be followed by a move up to resistance level 1323 - 1329.





US CRUDE OIL

The market is trading along an uptrend with target on 52.87 and this uptrend may be expected to continue, while market is trading above support level 52.03.
An downtrend will start as soon, as the market drops below support level 52.03, which will be followed by a move down to support level 51.45 and if it keeps on moving down below that level, we may expect the market to reach support level 50.87.

 

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Weekly / Long-Term Forecast, October 2 - 6

EURUSD
On previous week EU Core CPI dropped to 1.1 from 1.2, that is bad sign for euro perspective, also remembering words of Draghi about QE reducing, that at present time is looks not real: economy slows down... Same time US shown increasing of GDP from 3.0% to 3.1%, that is optimistic for dollar. Fundamental picture is showing good perspective for dollar rising, but in same time eurusd rebounded up from key support level 1.1712 - 1.1760, from that very possible we can have correction wave to strong resistance 1.1910 and possible higher, to key resistance 1.2037. So looks, that before dollar will start his uptrend, he should fall a little, to unload.

The market is trading along an uptrend with target on 1.1910. that may be expected to continue, while market is trading above support level 1.1744 - 1.1712.
An downtrend will start as soon, as the market drops below support level 1.1744 - 1.1712, which will be followed by a move down to support level 1.1612.






GBPUSD
On previous week GBP GDP is dropped from 1.7% to 1.5%, that is very-very bad sign for pound currency... Same time we can see that technically market already created trend top and on the level 1.3587 we have strong resistance, that will prevent uptrend from any futher rising. So from current level or from 1.3587 we can expecting downtrend to support level 1.3135.

The market is trading along a downtrend with target on 1.3135, that may be expected to continue, while market is trading below resistance level 1.3587.
An uptrend will start as soon as the market rises above resistance level 1.3587, which will be followed by a move up to resistance level 1.3915.






GOLD
The market is trading along a sideways trend between support 1268 and resistance 1290.
An uptrend will start as soon as the market rises above resistance level 1290, which will be followed by a move up to resistance level 1320.
An downtrend will start as soon, as the market drops below support level 1268, which will be followed by a move down to support level 1241.






CRUDE OIL
Oil production now on the yearly top, inventories increasing duriang a few weeks (not looking on the last one, where was not a big drop), same time technically market is trading on the key resistance level 52.87 - 53.87. Its possible, that market can try to get the last one, but really market now is looking more for downtrend, than for uptrend, also considering that Brent is already going in strong falling and already re-broke down her main support.

The market is trading along a downtrend with target on 49.70, that may be expected to continue, while market is trading below resistance level 52.10 - 52.87.
An uptrend will start as soon as the market rises above resistance level 52.87, which will be followed by a move up to resistance level 53.87 and possible will try to get 55.21.

 
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