EUR/USD, GBP/USD, GOLD - Forecast by Anton Kolhanov

[Anton Kolhanov]

Weekly forecast, October 9 - 13

Main news of this week:
Wednesday: US - FOMC Minutes
Thursday: EU - Draghi; Oil - Inventories
Friday: US - Core CPI

EURUSD
Previous week was closed on main support 1.1760, so market still have a chance to rebound up to the resistance level 1.1910 (technically). Contribute to this scenario fundamental factor of very weak US "Non-farm payrolls" news, that was published on friday and felt suprisingly low from previous 156K to -33K, that can be a very strong signal for market correction to technical level 1.1910.

By history of this news indicator, we can see, that negative NFP market have once per 7-8 year cycle and after we started to have negative NFP, this crysis period is going over 12-18 month, where last of them was on 2001 and 2008 years. But sometimes its happens when NFP became negative, but if after this one we will have more again - this signal will became very dangerous. But before this apocalyptic scenario we do not have any other economic signals for such possible situation, so looks that negative NFP we had just because US economy is already fully loaded by working places, because unemployment is felt from 4.4% to 4.2%, that is very good sign.

The market is trading along a sideways trend between resistance 1.1760 and support 1.1650 - 1.1610.
An uptrend will start as soon as the market rises above resistance level 1.1760, which will be followed by a move up to resistance level 1.1910.

GBPUSD
Market is trading in downtrend, but on main support level 1.3135, from that can have a correction to resistance 1.3236, from that we can expection continuation of downtrend to the next support 1.2932, because pound is still looks weak.
An uptrend will start as soon as the market rises above resistance level 1.3236, which will be followed by a move up to resistance level 1.3494.

GOLD

The market is trading along a sideways trend between main support 1268 and resistance 1287.
An uptrend will start as soon as the market rises above resistance level 1287 (or from support 1268), which will be followed by a move up to resistance level 1315 - 1320.
An downtrend will start as soon, as the market drops below support level 1268, which will be followed by a move down to support level 1241.

CRUDE OIL
Oil production is started to increase by much less pace, same time we have one more week reduction of inventories, that can provoce market on correction from support 49.13 to resistance 51.62. On previous week that level was strong resistance, so market had downtrend as technical factor, but looking on inventories reduction, support 49.13 is able to stop this trend scenario. From another way, this downtrend impulse is strong, where support 49.13 is the last one and by her break down market will continue downtrend to 47.05.

The market is trading along a sideways trend between support 49.13 and resistance 49.87.
The downtrend may be expected to continue in case the market drops below support level 49.13, which will be followed by reaching support level 47.30.
An uptrend will start as soon as the market rises above resistance level 49.87, which will be followed by a move up to resistance level 51.62.

 

[Anton Kolhanov]

Weekly / Long-Term Forecast, October 16 - 20
Main news of this week:
Tuesday: GBP and EU - Core CPI
Wednesday: Oil inventories

EURUSD
The market is trading along an uptrend with target on 1.1910 or 1.2037, that may be expected to continue, while market is trading above support level 1.1670.
An downtrend will start as soon, as the market drops below support level 1.1670, which will be followed by a move down to support level 1.1565.

GBPUSD
The market is trading along an uptrend with target on 1.3495, that may be expected to continue, while market is trading above support level 1.3215.
An downtrend will start as soon, as the market drops below support level 1.3215, which will be followed by a move down to support level 1.3068 and if it keeps on moving down below that level, we may expect the market to reach support level 1.2874.

GOLD
The market is trading along an uptrend with target on 1346 - 1349, that may be expected to continue, while market is trading above support level 1290.
An downtrend will start as soon, as the market drops below support level 1290, which will be followed by a move down to support level 1268.

CRUDE OIL
The market is trading along a sideways trend between support 50.73 and resistance 51.60.
The uptrend may be expected to continue in case the market rises above resistance level 51.60, which will be followed by reaching resistance level 52.87 - 53.87.
An downtrend will start as soon, as the market drops below support level 50.73, which will be followed by a move down to support level 49.17 and if it keeps on moving down below that level, we may expect the market to reach support level 47.40.

 

[Anton Kolhanov]

EURUSD
Weekly forecast, November 6 - 10
The market is trading along a downtrend with target on 1.1450, that may be expected to continue, while market is trading below resistance level 1.1715.
An uptrend will start as soon as the market rises above resistance level 1.1715, which will be followed by a move up to resistance level 1.1820.

GBPUSD
Weekly forecast, November 6 - 10
The market is trading along a downtrend with target on 1.2932 and if it keeps on moving down below that level, we may expect the market to reach support level 1.2718.
An uptrend will start as soon as the market rises above resistance level 1.3128, which will be followed by a move up to resistance level 1.3285.

GOLD
Weekly forecast, November 6 - 10
An downtrend will start as soon, as the market drops below support level 1266, which will be followed by a move down to support level 1241.
An uptrend will start as soon as the market rises above resistance level 1276, which will be followed by a move up to resistance level 1304.

CRUDE OIL
Weekly forecast, November 6 - 10
The market is trading along an uptrend with target on 57.40, that may be expected to continue, while market is trading above support level 55.00 - 54.00.
An downtrend will start as soon, as the market drops below support level 54.00, which will be followed by a move down to support level 51.60.

 

[Anton Kolhanov]

Weekly forecast, November 13 - 17
EURUSD
The market is trading along a downtrend with target on 1.1550 and then 1.1450, that may be expected to continue, while market is trading below resistance level 1.1715.
An uptrend will start as soon as the market rises above resistance level 1.1715, which will be followed by a move up to resistance level 1.1826 and 1.1910.

GBPUSD
The market is trading along a sideways trend between support 1.3068 and resistance 1.3285. Local downtrend now can get support level 1.3068 and if it keeps on moving down below that level, we may expect the market to reach support level 1.2932.
An uptrend will start as soon as the market rises above resistance level 1.3285, which will be followed by a move up to strong resistance level 1.3395.

GOLD
The market is trading along a sideways trend between support 1269 and resistance 1289.
An downtrend will start as soon, as the market drops below support level 1269, which will be followed by a move down to support level 1258 and to 1241.
An uptrend will start as soon as the market rises above resistance level 1289, which will be followed by a move up to resistance level 1304.

CRUDE OIL
What to expect on this week?
Last market uptrend from $54 to $58 was not fundamental, but force majeure, due to political problems in Saudi Arabia. In general its clear, that this developments will not have any influence on oil production in this country, because military conditions is normal, so market can re-play back this difference in $4 from $58 to $54. CME futures on WTI show that level $58 is key resistance from that market need to start downtrend, after some formation of pattern on the market top and its further break down. By fundamental data we can see, that production is on the historical top and continue its rising, where same time inventories create market bottom and seems that from week to week they will start uptrend. So, not political, not fundamental, oil do now have perspective to be trading above price of $58 - $60 ($60, as key resistance on "spot" market). Same time current price is very good level for further shale mining and we can see that oil rigs continue their increasing, so we need to prepare for soon downtrend to $54 and $50 levels, where $50 for now is fair price for current fundamental conditions.

The market is trading along a sideways trend between support 56.38 and resistance 57.40.
The uptrend may be expected to continue in case the market rises above resistance level 57.40, which will be followed by reaching resistance level 60.25.

 

[Anton Kolhanov]

Weekly / Long-Term Forecast, November 20 - 24
EURUSD
The market is trading along an uptrend with target on 1.1910, that ay be expected to continue, while market is trading above support level 1.1756.
An downtrend will start as soon, as the market drops below support level 1.1756, which will be followed by a move down to support level 1.1662.

GBPUSD
The market is trading along an uptrend with target on 1.3285 and if it keeps on moving up above that level, we may expect the market to reach resistance level 1.3395.
An downtrend will start as soon, as the market drops below support level 1.3177, which will be followed by a move down to support level 1.3115 - 1.3068.

GOLD
The market is trading along an uptrend with target on 1304.30, that may be expected to continue, while market is trading above support level 1285.
An downtrend will start as soon, as the market drops below support level 1285, which will be followed by a move down to support level 1275 and 1269.

CRUDE OIL
The market is trading along a sideways trend between support 55 and resistance 57.40, where local downtrend will start from resistance 56.86 - 57.40 to support level 55.
An uptrend will start as soon as the market rises above resistance level 57.40, which will be followed by a move up to resistance level 60.25.

 

[Anton Kolhanov]

Weekly forecast, November 27 - December 01
EURUSD
Market is trading on the key resistance level 1.1910, that was almost broken up during Thursday - Friday US holidays. Here is no clear driver for further uptrend and seems that soon market will start correction with further downtrend, but market still can get next key resistance on the level 1.2024. We need waiting for Wednesday US GDP and Thursday EU Core CPI news to get more market driver in any of ways.

The market is trading along an uptrend with target on 1.2024, but uptrend may be expected to continue in case the market rises above resistance level 1.1950.
An downtrend will start as soon, as the market drops below support level 1.1844, which will be followed by a move down to support level 1.1643 - 1.1607.

GBPUSD
The market is trading along a sideways trend between support 1.3282 and key resistance 1.3395.
The uptrend may be expected to continue in case the market rises above resistance level 1.3395, which will be followed by reaching resistance level 1.3587.
An downtrend will start as soon, as the market drops below support level 1.3282, which will be followed by a move down to support level 1.3188 and 1.3068.

GOLD
The market is trading along a sideways trend between support 1286 and resistance 1293.
The uptrend may be expected to continue in case the market rises above resistance level 1293, which will be followed by reaching resistance level 1304.
An downtrend will start as soon, as the market drops below support level 1286, which will be followed by a move down to support level 1276.

CRUDE OIL
The market is trading along an uptrend with target on 60.25.
An downtrend will start as soon, as the market drops below support level 56.86, which will be followed by a move down to support level 54.00.

 

[Anton Kolhanov]

Here is my new type of forecasts with youtube, enjoy!
Any comments are wellcome!

 

[Anton Kolhanov]

Monday forecast

 

[Anton Kolhanov]

Todays forecast and trade ideas

 

[Anton Kolhanov]

Wednesday forecast