John Bozeman
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If the Daily EUR/USD closes higher, 66% of the time it is within 25% of the Daily High. If it closes lower, 70% of the time it is within 25% of the Daily Low.
However, this does not impact the next bar's Performance. It is reasonable to assume that if a Daily bar closes within 75%-100% of the high, that the next bar is likely going to be a down bar. However, by backtesting this you can see that despite the bar closing within 75%-100% of the Daily high, the next bar has a 52% chance of going down and a 48% chance of the next bar going up.
Even if you have 2 Daily bars in a row in which the close has been 75%-100% of the High, the chances of the next day being a lower bar are still only 58%.
It's important not to just look at a chart and assume it's going to go up/down based off of "common sense."
Here's a strategy I found in a few minutes:
Daily Close is Greater Than Open and Close is within the lower 45%-50% of the bar. 60% of the time it has gone up in price the next day, and 69% of the time it is higher by the day after that.
It's nice to be able to start/finish studies like this in 10 minutes without having to program MT4 (or program anything for that matter lol). It's like we're coming out of the dark days of trading.
However, this does not impact the next bar's Performance. It is reasonable to assume that if a Daily bar closes within 75%-100% of the high, that the next bar is likely going to be a down bar. However, by backtesting this you can see that despite the bar closing within 75%-100% of the Daily high, the next bar has a 52% chance of going down and a 48% chance of the next bar going up.
Even if you have 2 Daily bars in a row in which the close has been 75%-100% of the High, the chances of the next day being a lower bar are still only 58%.
It's important not to just look at a chart and assume it's going to go up/down based off of "common sense."
Here's a strategy I found in a few minutes:
Daily Close is Greater Than Open and Close is within the lower 45%-50% of the bar. 60% of the time it has gone up in price the next day, and 69% of the time it is higher by the day after that.
It's nice to be able to start/finish studies like this in 10 minutes without having to program MT4 (or program anything for that matter lol). It's like we're coming out of the dark days of trading.
