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Discussion in 'General Forex Talk' started by John Bozeman, Jan 12, 2011.

  1. John Bozeman

    John Bozeman Private

    Dec 15, 2010
    Likes Received:
    If the Daily EUR/USD closes higher, 66% of the time it is within 25% of the Daily High. If it closes lower, 70% of the time it is within 25% of the Daily Low.

    However, this does not impact the next bar's Performance. It is reasonable to assume that if a Daily bar closes within 75%-100% of the high, that the next bar is likely going to be a down bar. However, by backtesting this you can see that despite the bar closing within 75%-100% of the Daily high, the next bar has a 52% chance of going down and a 48% chance of the next bar going up.

    Even if you have 2 Daily bars in a row in which the close has been 75%-100% of the High, the chances of the next day being a lower bar are still only 58%.

    It's important not to just look at a chart and assume it's going to go up/down based off of "common sense."

    Here's a strategy I found in a few minutes:
    Daily Close is Greater Than Open and Close is within the lower 45%-50% of the bar. 60% of the time it has gone up in price the next day, and 69% of the time it is higher by the day after that.

    It's nice to be able to start/finish studies like this in 10 minutes without having to program MT4 (or program anything for that matter lol). It's like we're coming out of the dark days of trading.

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