EUR/USD what a fun roller coaster today

[Eric Alyea]

History check on the last rally

History check, the last spike down and below this level started 12-28-08 from 1.4150 and went down to 1.2490 on 3-2-09.
My question is: What allowed it (the circumstances) to rally back up to 1.3660 on 3-18-09. That's only a 16 day retrace. What's the best way to research past indicators and compare them to what really happened, to see if something similar may apply.

 

[Forexwatchman]

Not being a savant and able to recall specific historical references on the spot, I couldn't sum up everything that happened during that 16 day time period you reference other than the U.S. economic recession that was in full swing perhaps aiding the euro prior to the Greek fiasco that now takes center stage. But I would say with confidence that whatever caused the rally back up was more due to short term corrections and typical intra-day trading that caused the temporary rise. On the other hand, the forces involved right now out-weigh those fundamental forces because we are in the midst of a currency that is about to collapse in on itself; much bigger problems than that project ever envisioned facing.

I think it's very wise to ask what happened during the most recent reference point that we can refer back to in order to gain some insight into what to look for going forward, but in this case i think we will be establishing new levels for the EUR/USD in the longterm that will make such previous references less meaningful going forward. If that makes sense.

 

[Eric Alyea]

I switching to GBP/JPY

I hope somebody else rode that wave down and made money.
After the elections in England and the dust settles.
https://www.forexpeacearmy.com/fore...-talk/9831-uk-general-election.html#post35318
I switching to GBP/JPY, I finished back testing ten years of data history, I hope I’m ready.

I know this is one of Sgt. Forexwatchman's pairs. If you work this pair, keep up with him and subscribe to his thread here.
https://www.forexpeacearmy.com/fore...-eur-usd-wrap-up-form-forex-nation-com-4.html
Every once in a while you hear about an amusement park Roller Coaster crashing. I think this one is down for a while and you better read up and rethink on how to work it.

 

[Forexwatchman]

Thanks Eric!

 

[Eric Alyea]

Trend is your friend

I’m curious as to how many pip’s Forexwatchman has on an open EUR/USD ticket now 400+ ???
:nerd:
This remind’s me of “HALO” dive’s (“H”igh, “A”ltitude, “L”ow, “O”pening) Military Insertion Parachuting. They kick you out of the plane at 40,000 ft. above ground and you hope your dental work is good so your teeth don’t explode (from the rapid pressure change of attitude levels) on decent.
Both the EUR/USD and GBP/JPY are giving me more arm chair excitement than my blood pressure cuff can measure.

 

[Ricex]

Sure hope you took that GBP/JPY down to the basement Eric.....

1250 PIPS

.... if I could make it flash I would have

 

[Forexwatchman]

Only 480 pips Eric, I say only because there was way more than that I could have made but everytime it made a new low I thought surely this was the beginning of the end for now and we'd see a retracement, then of course it just fell even more. Profiting off of others tragedy never felt so good!

 

[Danny boy]

140 Trades... nothing like hard graft...

Waiting here in UK for london open will be good to trade today think it may fall off edge looking for 1.280!!

But will be looking to take it in one hit though..

Good luck guys.

 

[Eric Alyea]

Buy a hot dog and say, “That was fun”.

The felling of being free and clear of all trades. Riding the roller coaster and getting out when you can still buy a hot dog and say, “That was fun”.
I hope every body had a good time on the sell button and now it’s back to being careful again.

Yes I got out at 1.2285 @ 12:20 CST. Manually, no take profit, I just couldn't take it anymore, all trades had 16-68 pips at differant level's and I dumped.
I had a take profit set for 1.2200 oh well, sure is sure and money in the bank.


Good luck to all.

 

[Eric Alyea]

Fear and the “sure thing” vs. “intuition”.

Just goes to show getting away from looking at it is good (a watched pot never boils)http://www.ask.com/questions-about/A-Watched-Pot-Never-Boils. Some times I put a super low take profit on when I work in the yard, (just in case).
I should have gone to work out in the yard earlier. It went down to 1.2160, ( from the above post it would have been a 100 pip profit differance) I had a TP ( Take Profit ) from the day before set at 1.2200.

Fear and the “sure thing” vs. “intuition”. Yes I can kick my self but I will go with the sure thing anytime.

Enjoy the time you have and what you do with it.