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Euro Forex Pro Weekly 01-05 May, 2010

Discussion in 'Sive Morten- Currencies and Gold Video Analysis' started by Sive Morten, May 1, 2010.

  1. Sive Morten

    Sive Morten Special Consultant to the FPA

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    Hi everybody,
    Let’s see, what we can expect during the next week.
    This is a Monthly EUR/USD chart. It’s a bit complicated, so I made some notes about the markings on it. Blue dashes are monthly Pivot points, light green dashes – monthly pivot support1 and dark green ones – monthly pivot support 2. The blue line – is a lower bound of Oscillator Predictor that shows us oversold level and for May it at 1.2680.
    The monthly trend, based on MACD is bearish. We can see that during last five months, the market has closed below Pivot points. Also, I have to say that Pivots are traded by markets in 80% of cases. May Pivot =1.3373 and we can expect that during the month market will touch this level. Also, we have two Pivot support levels – Support 1=1.3052 and Support 2 = 1.2796. If you look at previous down move, you’ll see that usually either support 1 holds down move during the month or the area between support1 and support2.
    Pivot analysis tells us that market should to trade 1.3370 area and the monthly minimum should be somewhere between the 1.2800 and 1.3050 level.
    But – the trend is bearish now; there is no oversold condition - that’s why I will interpret any up move as a possibility to enter short. We have no oversold and the near target COP = 1.2880 can be achieved in May.
     

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    #1 Sive Morten, May 1, 2010
    Last edited: May 2, 2010
  2. Sive Morten

    Sive Morten Special Consultant to the FPA

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    Weekly

    This is a weekly chart. The red line is a MACD Predictor. The blue and green lines are monthly Pivot, support1 and support 2 again. The price action of the last three weeks is very interesting. Look, the market has moved above MACD Predictor but closed below it, above-below. This repeats three times. It means that people, who have bought on unconfirmed trend change signal (to bullish) were stopped out during the next week. On the past week we see the same – the market has a high above MACDP but closed below it. It means that stop orders are just under the low or Pivot support 1. Also, please note that during the whole down move the market touches the monthly Pivot during the first two weeks and goes deeper during last two weeks. That’s important.
    Stochastic indicator shows a Buy signal, while MACD holds th bearish trend and price action does not support Stochastic. Very often this combination will lead to a strong down move.
    So, what is a probable price action on a weekly time frame during the month? I think that we can expect some up move to monthly Pivot 1.3370 and weekly Fib resistance 1.3474 in the beginning of the May and reestablishing the down move to weekly XOP=1.3074 and monthly Pivot support 1.3052 during the second half of the month.
     

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    #2 Sive Morten, May 1, 2010
    Last edited: May 2, 2010
  3. Sive Morten

    Sive Morten Special Consultant to the FPA

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    Daily

    This is the daily chart. The market has reached two targets COP=1.3121 and OP=1.3141 and started a pull back. MACD shows a bearish trend while stochastic shows a Buy signal. This means that a possible up move should be viewed as possibility to enter short. But, if you are a short-term trader there is no problem to go long on a short term frame. But, the monthly trend is bearish, the weekly trend is bearish and the daily trend is also bearish. That’s why I will not to hold any buy position for a long time.
    Let’s look at the levels. First, the market has closed higher than the weekly Pivot at 1.3280. You should be very careful with this point. The market should test it on Monday. If it will move below and close above it at the end of the day – the up move will become very probable. My target for it is a weekly pivot resistance 1 at 1.3443 and Fib Confluence resistance area 1.3469-1.3477, although some resistance can appear from the monthly pivot at 1.3370. There is a daily overbought also, just look at the Oscillator predictor blue line.
    Ok, there are no particular signals, I see only levels for now, but I tell you what I’ll be watching for on Monday…This is a price action around the weekly Pivot. The market shows an up move in two first weeks of the month – it should to trade around monthly Pivot at 1.3373, it closed higher (and I expect in will open higher) than the weekly pivot at 1.3280. If on Monday market will close above the weekly pivot – there is a solid probability to correction higher. I expect 1.3470 area, that we should use to selling opportunity.
     

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    #3 Sive Morten, May 1, 2010
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  4. Sive Morten

    Sive Morten Special Consultant to the FPA

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    Hourly

    Ok this is a possible issue for Monday. The hourly trend is bearish. We have a strong support level – Confluence support 1.3257-1.3261 and Agreement with COP=1.3266. Also we have a weekly pivot at 1.3280. I expect that the market will reach this area before I will intend to go long in the short-term. If from that area, the market will rise above the weekly pivot, then the hourly trend will turn bullish – then we can enter long on the nearest not deep retracement. The possible targets – OP=1.3374 that is a Monthly Pivot also and XOP=1.3475 than is an Agreement also with daily Confluence resistance and oversold.
    Just remember, that the better way to enter long when market will make a retracement lower, move above weekly pivot, the trend will turn bullish – then I will enter on a shallow retracement lower on 5 min. chart. I do not know, how the market will move on Monday. But this is what I will be looking for. The weekly Pivot point is very important.
     

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    #4 Sive Morten, May 1, 2010
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  5. RahmanSL

    RahmanSL Major

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    mcf.beyer, I guess all that is meant for seasoned traders.

    For Newbies like us, it would be nice if someone would post something like:
    Ok, when EUR/USD is at 1.3257-1.3261 go in “SELL”. When EUR/USD goes down to 1.3250-1.3240, get the hell out and close out position(s) pronto!

    Oh well, we Newbies will just have to soldier on until we understand all those pivotal and other stuffs.
     
  6. Sive Morten

    Sive Morten Special Consultant to the FPA

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    Hi, mcf.beyer.

    Well, looks like your indicators are correct, but they show pivots for previous week and month (just look my previous research and you 'll find these numbers there).
    So, first, you can use my numbers
    Second, you can use Simple Moving average with period 1 and displacement for 1 period on HLC/3. It will show you Pivot point for future week or month. But you can see it only on the chart with the same time frame - I mean weekly SMA shows you weekly Pivot only on weekly chart etc.

    Hope it helps.
    Sive
     
  7. cyprustrader

    cyprustrader Recruit

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    Hi and I get the same result as you on my weekly pivot, the problem is that MT4 will not calculate next weeks pivot until the market opens again. The calculations are lagging from the prev week (last weeks data) dont forget.
     
  8. Argonaut

    Argonaut Recruit

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    Pivot points depend on the closing time

    Various MT4 brokers use different closing times, ie. 17hrs EST, midnight EST, midnight GMT, GMT+ 2, etc., and this can cause differences in pivot point values.
     
  9. 1954

    1954 Corporal

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    Hi Sive,

    Can you explain briefly what is HLC/3 ?
    Thanks

    Peter
     
  10. cyprustrader

    cyprustrader Recruit

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    Peter,
    It's the typical price parameter in the moving average indicator, apply the standard Moving Average Indicator, in parameters window, slelect "Apply to" and you have options of: open, close..... typical price(HLC/3) etc
     
    #10 cyprustrader, May 3, 2010
    Last edited: May 3, 2010

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