Euro Forex Pro Weekly 01-05 May, 2010

[Sive Morten]

Hi Pieter,
Yes, Cyprustrader is right. HLC/3 means (High+Low+Close)/3

 

[YouHoo]

great job

Hi Sive,

thank you for your great analysis.
Your writtings can be a little bit confusing for some newbies, therefore I wrote these important points for those who have difficulties by becoming the general view. After some weeks practicing with the numbers and names, they won't also need these list.
I hope that it helps.

Regards
youhoo

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Blue dashes................ monthly Pivot points
Light green dashes.......monthly pivot support 1
Dark green ones...........monthly pivot support 2
Blue line......................lower bound of Oscillator Predictor that shows us oversold/overbought level (Monthly chart)
Red line.......................MACD Predictor (Weekly chart)
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Monthly trend (May).....bearish based on MACD
Oversold level..............1.2680
Monthly minimum..........should be between 1.2800 and 1.3050 levels
Monthly Pivot...............1.3373
Support 1....................1.3052
Support 2....................1.2796
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Weekly trend...............bearish
Weekly Fibresistance.....1.3474
Weekly XOP.................1.3074
Weekly Pivot................1.3280
Resistance 1................1.3443
Fib Confluence resistance area 1.3469-1.3477
*******************************************************
Daily trend...................bearish
Hourly trend.................bearish
Confluence support........1.3257-1.3261
.
.
.
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[Sive Morten]

Nice work, Youhoo, thanks
I also will try to follow this list as close as possible, just to except any mess.

And, Guys, If you do not understand some things, for expample what Pivot point is, How MACD Predictor works or what does Oscillator Predictor means. Just ask.
This forum is for education also. I give you rather advanced analysis. Many things there are not obvious sometimes and demand deep understanding of some market processes and my logic.

 

[auna]

Thank you Mr Morten for your info .i have found it very guidelike these pass few weeks since i did not trade the eurousd on a daily basis.With your analysis and insight, it gave me confidence to make some gutsy moves that i would not have made on my own. But the Euro is pretty sporadic for now so i am trying to follow your pivots and known support and resistance points and of course am risking only 1 small position. I figure the Euro will go down so any short position beyond 1.32-1.33(1.34 would be great.) for the moment looks like a good investment, short or long term.

 

[Vark]

Mr Morten, we almost grazed that 3370 level at opening on Sunday and once again in a couple of hours after that. Do you think we will get another move up this or next week? Obviously we could get a spike if NFP reports are not good for the USD, but besides that, you mentioned, that we should return to check the 3370 area in the first half of May, do you still think it's a possibility and/or a probability?
Thanks

 

[Sive Morten]

Hi Vark,
Well, My expectation bases on the fact that monthly pivot points traded by market in 70-80% cases. Just try to find a month on the monthly chart, when this was not happened.
But, there is still 20-30% that this will not happen. Possibly it can happen, after market reached our XOP=1.3074.
I'll share with you with my thoughts on a regular basis.

 

[Sive Morten]

Tuesday EUR/USD update

G'day everybody,
I hope, that you had not lost any money on Monday, because our condition to enter long did not confirm (previous 60-min post).
What we have to expect now?
There are two important biases for current week. First- market should clean out previous low - 1.3114 area during current week.
Second - market has closed strongly under Weekly Pivot on Monday. This is very bearish.
These conditions lead us to the thought that we should enter short and we have to find the level where we can do this.

This is 60-min chart.
First of all - OP=1.3126 has not reached yet and it's very close to Weekly Pivot support 1=1.3145. I expect, that before retracement higher market can reach this level. We should looking for possible buy signal there.

If it will not happen, and 'C' point=1.3174 is in place already - then we have two levels to watch for - OP=1.3234 and, my favorite - XOP=1.3271.
XOP is in Agreement with Fib resistance and Weekly Pivot resistance also. So, for me this level is better then 1.3234.

Resume - wait until market clear 1.3125-1.3150 level, although it can not come to pass. Good level for enter short 1.3270 with target 1.3050-1.3080 area, that should be reached at the end of the week.
Short term traders can go long from 1.3126-1.3150 but be sure with buy signal in this area.

Sive.

 

[Sive Morten]

Ok, our first expectation has been met very fast.
Market does not even show any sign of a possible retracement up and fall like a stone.
weekly XOP has been achieved.
I'll look tomorrow for possible issues. They will depend from market behavior around weekly XOP and Monthly Pivot support at 1.3050.

 

[Tom23824]

What does XOP and OP stand for and mean?
Is this indicator values?

 

[Vix]

expansion levels of pivot
(also called COP, OP and XOP levels)
COP is a 61.8% expansion,
OP a 100% expansion, and
XOP a 161.8% expansion

more on pivot points
Using Pivot Points for Predictions