Euro Forex Pro Weekly 01-05 May, 2010

[auna]

I have been waiting for a retrace since the 1.29. I had a postion there that was long and it went up in a small profit but i said to myself it should go at least to 131 since this is the EurUSD not the EURJPY. My big mistake. Now i am sitting with that position which is around -300 pips but it is one micro so no too bad judging by the big losses others have made. As it hit 126 now i have two shorts because i believe the euro will hit at least 125 tomorrow.Friday is a good day for hill billes to jump the gun and dump currency ...i.e join the downturn trend. so I hope it at least goes to 125 so that i can cash my shorts with a good profit and then hope it reaches 129 at least in a few weeks if possible for me to cash out the long. I can go -1000 pips any way with that position but the euro does worry me since there is nothing that can get it up for the moment sadly....unless something happens in US or The EU do something unforseen.But i guess the IMF was the alst straw. Greece portugal and others are just the Euro zones weakest links so there is nothing that can be done to help them except splash cash and keep the people quiet for while and then may be write off the debt.

I think you are safer to put a short with a -100 pips SL than to go long for the moment since i feel the next stop for the euro is 1.20 And then it might retrace a bit to 1.24-1.25 and then drop to 1.10. You can check the charts for my analysis.When the euro retrace a bit it never went more than 100 but fell like a brick afterwards for every cent it went through downwards. I am no specialist but this thing is psycological right now.If the 125 is broken i think people will go short and until markets react we will be in 1.20

 

[Mandrake]

Wow yesterday was really bull****. Dow Jones went down like 1,000pts and up again to close at -384. I was also caught in the failed retracement. Went in twice and lost everything.

I am in Asia so I slept through all the disaster that happened a couple of hours ago. Sometimes I feel I can't sleep when I am holding on to some positions. It also tend to remind me that forex is all brains and not to get over confident as bull**** do happen from time to time.

By the way, Thank you Sive. Now I understand forex a lot better and I can always check whether my analysis conform with yours.

I really can't thank you enough for sharing your knowledge with us. May All the Gods in the world Bless you.

 

[Sive Morten]

Special For Auna

Hi, Auna
Say, I did a special analysis to you yesterday, with a monthly chart. (it seems that you are not a short-term trader). And I've said, that there will bo NO reversal in EUR/USD, until stops below 1.23 will be cleared out. This is not just free market for now. This is a Flight to quality rally and all Technical tactics are skewed by this fact very strongly.

Hi Mandrake

Sometimes I feel I can't sleep when I am holding on to some positions.

Well, It means that may be intraday trading will be better for you.

 

[Sive Morten]

Fri update

Good morning,
This is a Friday update. Current market shows Flight to quality rally, so, any technical view is skewed by this fact very strongly.
For me current market is for intraday trading only - because I do not want to catch a falling knife from the one side and market is extremely oversold from the other.
But let's go to trade possibilities. First one is on EUR/USD. This is a 4H chart, we have a great down thrust. If we will see a retracement higher and market will close above 3x3 SMA, then there will be a possibiliy for short-term sell.
I've marked on the chart possible enter point (but it can appear in other place, it's just an expectation) and the possible target. This trade in a direction of the main trend. So it has relatively low risk.

The second possibility on the CAD/USD. This is a 1H chart. (But this is a CAD/USD not a USD/CAD - so you need to interpret it vice versa top to bottom). I expect deep retracement to 0.618 or even 0.786 level. If this retracement will hold and market will not break to new lows (on your USD/CAD it means "new highs") then the two possible targets can be achieved (see the chart).

But both of these trades are intraday.

Good trading to everybody,
Sive.

 

[aahabibullah]

short or long

:hi sive,

Do you think euro/USD would go down further. just enquiring because till now got a good profit based on your feed back. would not want to lose it.

 

[auna]

Hi, Auna
Say, I did a special analysis to you yesterday, with a monthly chart. (it seems that you are not a short-term trader). And I've said, that there will bo NO reversal in EUR/USD, until stops below 1.23 will be cleared out. This is not just free market for now. This is a Flight to quality rally and all Technical tactics are skewed by this fact very strongly.

Yes i did read it Mr Morten but you did say also expect a retrace between 125 and 127.
Seriously when the market passed 127, i felt we were in danger already because it came from 133 and that was 600 pips downwards(in less than 3 days).In my limited and unfortunate trading experience, i have been in such trade where they pass 500 and that means you are safter to take the train downwards than upwards. I guess right now it is the big panic. People don't know what to dn one hand you got the political and news live signs which should help and on the other you have thefinancial resistance and support levels to contend to . All in all people are making jugments on their own and acting which ever they see fit.
Luckily today we had an upspiral and i guess that was due to the Approval of the debt the 145m for greece. But most know it is just a temporary band aid so like i said..i hope it reaches 129 for me to get out since i firmly believe the Euro will hit 1.20. Euro in the 140..don't think it will happen this year at least

By the way thank you Mr Morten for your insight.From Now i am taking your advice like religion.

 

[Sive Morten]

Hello everybody.
Please post in a newer thread May 10-14.

Sive.