Euro Forex Pro Weekly 01-05 May, 2010

[auna]

Hello Mr Morten
just want to know your personal take on the euro please. You see it falling futher or do you think it should stop at 1.2799 may be go to 1.2700 and retrace. Seriously nothing can fall forever but the Euro/USD has been going down even futher than the Eur Jpy has in one day.

by the way what can get the Eruo up if all life lines have been used (imf gave money already) So what are we to hope for. Personal question again ...will we see a Euro over 1.30 any soon.

 

[Vark]

Did we start a wave to 1.8xx?

 

[Sive Morten]

Hi Auna

do you think it should stop at 1.2799 may be go to 1.2700 and retrace. Seriously nothing can fall forever but the Euro/USD has been going down even futher than the Eur Jpy has in one day.

I've attached the monthly chart. Current move is not just usual move - in fact, this is a second leg of European crisis, and it's the same that was in 2008. We are observed a "Flight into quality" process.
In such period it's much harder to forecast market's moves.
But, still. Now we are near strong support on monthly chart - neck line, oversold and Fib support around 1.25-1.27. At the same time there are many stops just under 1.25 level. I expect that market will clear them out before any solid retracement will start.

by the way what can get the Eruo up if all life lines have been used (imf gave money already) So what are we to hope for. Personal question again ...will we see a Euro over 1.30 any soon.

Well, now there is a great uncertainty with Southern Europe. And market can't be calm until situation with Spain, Italy and Portugal be resolved. In fact, ECB has no finished plan how to save the economy and market waits what ECB will do and how. Until that I suppose that EUR will stay under pressure. Besides, there is expectations that FED will rise the rate in September.
Anyway, I expect that market should clear out 1.25 level then show some retracement and then, may be, there will be another move down.

 

[Sive Morten]

Hi, Vark

Did we start a wave to 1.8xx?

Well, I do not an expert in EW, but, I expect, that retracement will start a bit later, possibly after 1.25 level. And then, may be there will be a leg that you've mentioned.

Sive

 

[Sive Morten]

Thu EUR/USD update

Hello, Ladies and Gentlemen
here is an update for today.

This is a daily chart (see attachm).
Yesterday we have reached monthly Pivot support 2 and strong oversold at daily. Due to extreme oversold I do not want to sell. I expect, that combination of oversold and Pivot support should provide some support to market and lead to shallow retracement higher. 1.2980-1.3030 is a possible target.
But, at the same time i expect that downmove in mid term should contitue. It means that any Buy trade should be very short-term. This is not a buy&hold position, ok?

For now I do not see any signals of started retracement but they can appear during the day. Anyway, I expect that market should exit from oversold condition before it continue move down

Sive.

 

[duxo]

Hello All, I Love TRADING! TRUST YOURSELF DON BELIEVE ME 100%, AHH WHO CARES..., FROM MY POINT OF VIEW MOST PROBABLY EUR/USD WILL GO DEEPER DOWNWARDS TREND/BEARISH, AT LVL 1.2000 WE CAN START BUYING THE PAIR. TAKE PROFIT SHALL BE AT LVL 1.2300.AS A CONCLUSION:-

EUR/USD
BUY @ 1.2000
SL @ 1.1900
TP1 @ 1.2300
TP2 @ 1.2700

TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK OK USE MODERATE SIZE OF LOTS, DO NOT OVERTRADE... OK........

YES VARK WE ARE ON THE SAME BOAT!!

 

[Vark]

Hello All, I Love Trading !

Hi Duxo! Yes we have that problem too

 

[Vix]

Not so much of a day, tried to took that retracement which never happend.

Could have exited positon in profit but wanted to get more than 20 pips, and that was a mistake.

Hope everyone had a better day.

 

[Sive Morten]

Not so much of a day, tried to took that retracement which never happend.

Could have exited positon in profit but wanted to get more than 20 pips, and that was a mistake.

Hope everyone had a better day.

Euro is very politicized now. CHF has shown not bad retracement.
I lost a bit on EUR, but can take some from CHF.

 

[Vix]

Yes CHF behaved rather nicley, just I didn't trade it ))
Well next time.

I am really intersted what will happen now to EUR, still no signs of weakness.

And Sive just to say you are doing great analysis, thank you.