Euro Forex Pro weekly 02-06 August, 2010

[Mandrake]

Oh crap my profit has been shaved. It came down when I wasn't at my desk. It hit around 1.3250 which was weekly pivot R2. It came down and broke back into the trendline again...

I calculated a confluence at around 1.3150 weekly R1 which was where it took off upwards earlier on. So that is the lvl to look for buying signal again. But I'm not longer sure about this. It come down so fast and furious even after it broke trendline at 4hr chart closing a good distance above it. You should scalp instead !

 

[Erdinc]

If you look at the retracements of august 1 & 2 you see that they are negligible ,
so I ignored them because of the strenght of the upwards movement.
Todays upwards movement also started with lots of velocitiy but lost its speed very quickly.
Thats way I also thought that the retracment would hit 1.3150 before it resumes the upward trend.
So I was also in for scalping short but got out just in time with a loss of a few pips.
You can see that the trend is loosing momentum but there still are no long term sell signals yet.
I'm in with a long position from 1.3208 , now its stalling at Daily R1 1.3230,
this could remain like this till the market reopens.
The signals are still bullish. I'm very cautious dough.

 

[Ghazali]

Obama Threatens Forex; Says Goodbye to OTC Gold Trading???

Hi Sive and Guys,

I just read an article from from forex factory. I am very unclear about the meaning of this statements...

Is that FOREX will be banned for retailers? I can't believe this and it can't to be happened... Can anyone interpret this statement?

Here the statement...
-->
Elimination of OTC Forex

Effective 90 days from its inception, the Dodd-Frank Act bans most retail OTC forex transactions. Section 742(c) of the Act states as follows:

“…A person [which includes companies] shall not offer to, or enter into with, a person that is not an eligible contract participant, any agreement, contract, or transaction in foreign currency except pursuant to a rule or regulation of a Federal regulatory agency allowing the agreement, contract, or transaction under such terms and conditions as the Federal regulatory agency shall prescribe…”

This provision will not come into effect, however, if the CFTC or another eligible federal body issues guidelines relating to the regulation of foreign currency within 90 days of its enactment. Registrants and the public are currently being encouraged by the CFTC to provide insight into how the Act should be enforced. See CFTC Rulemakings regarding OTC Derivatives located at the following website address, under Section XX – Foreign Currency (Retail Off Exchange). As this provision is potentially devastating to the forex industry, affected readers are encouraged to voice their opinions to the CFTC directly. To do so commentary should be forwarded to via email to:
[emails]Secretary@www.cftc.gov[emails]
Attn: David A. Stawick, Secretary
Commodity Futures Trading Commission
Three Lafayette Center
1155 21st Street, NW
Washington, DC 20581

It is essential that OTC forex participants seek professional help to discuss possible operational and regulatory contingency plans.
-->
End of Statements

"Clinton opens the door of heaven...Hope Obama wont close it....."

Hope Mr. Sive or anyone capable explain this...

Thanks in advance

 

[Mandrake]

Well yesterday when I left my desk ADX was very high above 30 on 1hr 4hr and daily chart. I was rather shocked that it came down so quickly, I was aware of weekly pivot R2 but didn't think it would make such a huge impact. I do believe Eur is gonna make another rush upwards later during european market opening. But I learn to move my stop loss as the price move upwards as my job requires me to be away from london opening til US opening. Trend do reverse quite a lot during this period. Kinda sucks everytime it happens.

Hey Ghazali, I did not hear anything about the article you posted here. So I don't think it is what you said it is. Usually something so big will be over the news everywhere.

By the way do you work or you doing forex full-time ? It seems like you are around for most part of the day.

 

[Ghazali]

Hi Mandrake,

I do agree with you, as you said, such kind of hot news spread like virus, but this article still available on forex factory, you can have a look on it.

Actually im a computer/network technician, my job function is to maintain PCs and the network in my company. Im trading on a very small account, once it grown bigger then only i will resign and be Full time trader, hope so...

Im really very conservative on Euro right now but for sure anyhow it gonna drop hugely as alot of giants predict the same(even in bloomberg you can find alot of comments). In my opinion, the down-fall might start from 1.33xx or may be 1.35xx to 1.21xx or of course below that by end of this year, so im planning a position long-term trade.

 

[Mandrake]

Yeah Infact a lot of analyst predicted 1.31 to be the start of the big fall but look what happened. Nothing is for certain. Everybody could be wrong. We just have to follow technicals until it is clear that Eur is not going up anymore.

 

[Sentinel]

Sive, are we done? Not yet?

I see,

i. previous lows cleared
ii. MACDP failure on hourly chart
iii. W&R of weekly confluence resistance

 

[Sive Morten]

Hi, Sentinel,
Hm, very very probable. But I prefer to wait a confirmation, i.e. daily close. If it will be like it is now - it will be nice bearish engulfing.

If this situation will hold till the end of the week - you're right it will be nice W&R on weekly and Gravestone doji at the same time. Nice pattern. We'll just need to look at daily and 4-hour price action to make a final judgement. But there are a NFP on Friday...

 

[Mandrake]

Hi guys,

Last night really good long red candle but it is still in the wedge 4hr chart and is hanging around R1 1.3150. I'm waiting for it to break the trendline downwards. I think it's highly probable as I think the NFP tomorrow is considered more on the positive side compared to last month's NFP. It should push down EUR at least until the release time tmr. Hopefully market react this way later today. If not, it's gonna be another no trade day for me.

 

[Sive Morten]

EUR/USD Update, Thu 05, August

Good Morning everybody,

Yesterday we have seen some bearish signs in the area of strong resistance.
Today, on the daily chart it confirms - we see bearish engulfing pattern. So, from this point of you this pattern will be in game, until it's highs will not be taken out by the price.
On the hourly chart we see clear and rather harmonic H&S pattern. The nearest target of this pattern is 1.3012 area - that is coinsides with weekly Pivot point.

So, I have a bearish bias right now, until highs of H&S pattern will not be taken out. This H&S gives us nice possibility to enter short with nearest target at 1.3012 area. Just hold risk reasonable. Risk/reward ratio is also solid.
Also, If market will continue it's down move, I think that the next target will be 1.2780 - area of monthly Pivot point.