Euro Forex Pro weekly 19-23 July, 2010

[Sive Morten]

Sive, you have mentioned in the previous post that the 4H trend has changed to bearish based on MACDp/price cross, but the price did not go down.

I suppose that is what some people call high dynamic pressure. Can you tell us more about application of this phenomenon? Is it expected that the rally up will be at the next MACD cross up or just anytime? what are som other applications?

Thanks,

Rasto

Hi Rasto,
Not neccesary particlular rally, this Dynamic Pressure (DP) suggests that at least previous highs will be reached. How far this move can be - this is you should estimate via other tools, ABC's for example...DP itself doesn't show the potential level of possible move. And better to use it in conjunction with other tools. For example - DP at support has more chances to show up move, then without support etc...
Also it's not neccesary to wait until market will confirm DP with trend shift on the side of DP. Just be aware of negative scenario - if, suppose market shows positive DP (Like we have), and then, bearish price action starts to realize - then DP will be canceled.

 

[rasto007]

Usd/chf

Sive,

I was wondering why you closed your positions on USD/CHF manually earlier today. Your SL was not hit.

At what CET time do you consider a close of the day bar?

Rasto

 

[Sive Morten]

Sive,

I was wondering why you closed your positions on USD/CHF manually earlier today. Your SL was not hit.

At what CET time do you consider a close of the day bar?

Rasto

Hi, Rasto

I have a vacation now, so I have a limited access to the markets, and almost can't make carefull trades. I have to make some trades - otherway demo will close (because of abscence of action there).

On Demo it's Central European time. On CQG chats Close price is based on Chicago (CET-6 hours).

 

[Sive Morten]

EUR/USD Update, Wed 21, July

Hello, everybody

Market has cleared previous highs yesterday, demostrated W&R and then pulled down. Now market is near weekly Pivot point, that we've planned to watch in weekly research.
Now I do not see any interesing stuff here. The strategy as follows - look for price action around weekly pivot point (this is an hourly K-area also BTW). I think that market should flurting around it, before will turn in one or other direction.
If, we'll see - something like W&R in this area, market will move above Pivot, hourly trend will turn bullish, if it will be thrust up - much better. Then, possibly market will start it's move to XOP.

Also watch for 1.2760-1.2780 area - this is a disrespected daily K-area. Even if market will break through Pivot point - do not haste to enter short, because this area will be good support.

 

[luedama]

Good morning Sive and everyone,

There a battle on your support area 12760-12780, but this was violated yesterday. It has changed in resistance area or we can consider it a support yet? On hourly chart Eurusd seems in higher low mode...
Thanks for all, Sive

 

[Sive Morten]

EUR/USD Update, Thu 22, July

Good morning,

First of all, I want to remind you that tomorrow we'll see EU Banking stress-test result. Hypo bank has already failed it, so I do not expect pretty results.
It means that possibly, we can see deeper retracement on EUR.
Now I have only USD /CHF small position due to daily DRPO signal, that I've told you couple days ago. It still in place.

Let's look at technical picture.
Daily chart... Daily unconfirmed trend turns bearish, and today we can receive some help from this stuff. If, today's close will be higher than 1.2850 level - we'll get a MACDP failure signal, that makes probability of moving to XOP greater. If not - then I expect stronger down move.
At the same time, previous move up was solid (it's not a perfect thrust, but still it was solid). That's why I expect some retracement higher, may be from 1.2588-1.2643 area (weekly pivot support 1 and Fib support).

Now 4-hour chart... Trend is bearish. 4-hour support around weekly Pivot point was disrespected. At the near term look at price behaviour around this level, I think, that market should retest it but now as a resistance. If market can't break it - then, possibly to enter short is a better Idea with target 1.26-1.2643. Also keep in mind that 1.27-1.2720 - daily Confluence support.

That's being said - if market will close today higher then 1.2850 - I expect move to XOP=1.3133. If market will not be able break weekly Pivot to the upside - then move to 1.2588-1.2643 area is more probable. After market will reach it - possibly it will make a 0.618 retracement to the upside. So, weekly Pivot is a key for today - if market returns above it and close above 1.2850we will go up to XOP. If not - we will go down. But hold your risk reasonable - tomorrow strong data will be released.
That's my view on EUR/USD. But personally I like USD/CHF right now, because it has clearer signal than EUR.

 

[luedama]

Clear as usual, Thanks a lot, Sive!

 

[MidnightRun]

Re: But personally I like USD/CHF right now, because it has clearer signal than EUR.

That sounds quite surprising to me. I absolutely do not understand CNF's behavior over the last few days: it has become totally un-correlated with the USD over the most recent period, and I cannot figure out what it is that is determining its movements...

 

[Sive Morten]

Re: But personally I like USD/CHF right now, because it has clearer signal than EUR.

That sounds quite surprising to me. I absolutely do not understand CNF's behavior over the last few days: it has become totally un-correlated with the USD over the most recent period, and I cannot figure out what it is that is determining its movements...

First of all, it's summer time, what do you expect?
Second, it have had a DRPO pattern. IT's clear. That's all
But now it's look like it will turn to DRPO failure... Anyway it also will be clear enough to recognize this stuff.

 

[auna]

sticking with eurusd...i am going short from a 1.28 something. yesterday put in a long from 127.40 and it paid out since US market data was to be announced bad today.tomorrow expect it to go the other way sinc eEuro will suffer a negative economic whiplash.