Euro Forex Pro Weekly, 23-27 August, 2010

Sive Morten

Special Consultant to the FPA
Messages
12,732
Monthly
The trend is bearish; market has pierced the 1.3123 area and pulled back. For now it looks like a wash & rinse of this level, but the current month is not closed yet.
The blue line is a lower border of DiNapoli Oscillator Predictor. When the market touches it or even pierces – it means that market is oversold. In 2008 the market was extremely oversold compared to 2010, when the market just touched the line. That’s why I see current level of retracement to 1.33 area as logical. If you remember, I’ve said that the market should show 0.382 or 0.5 retracement up, because it not so oversold as in 2008, when it has shown 0.618 retracement to the upside. So, now the market has reached semi-position between 0.382 and 0.5. If market will continue an up move, then the next resistance is roughly 1.35area.
There is one important detail on the monthly chart that can come into play during the next week. This is the 1.26-12650 area. This is 50% retracement of a strong up bar and also a previous point of extremes. The market has touched it very often since 2004. Price action often found support or resistance at this level. Keep in mind this level, because we will be talking about it later.


Weekly
During the previous weeks we’ve discussed when the momentum trade will start on EUR. The green line is 3-period simple moving average shifted forward for 3 periods. The previous thrust down was really strong, so probability suggests that after the first retracement up we can count on some continuation of the down move. I thought that it will start from 1.3120 area (this was a weekly Confluence resistance area, as you remember), but the market has penetrated it a bit, reached monthly pivot resistance1 and then collapsed. We’ve received a very solid bearish engulfing that engulfs 3 previous weeks of action. The target of this momentum trade is 1.2430 area, and I think that It should be reached.
At the same time, the previous thrust up also is not bad (although it looks poorer on daily chart). It consists of 8 up candles and shows good separation from the 3x3 SMA. And due to these circumstances there is one thing that worries me. Will the smaller momentum trade take place in nearest future, or not? First, I thought that in can start from 1.2780 area. This is a 0.382 Fib support and monthly pivot point. Now the market has passed through it. The next area that we have to watching for – 1.26-1.2650. This is a daily Fib. support, area of monthly support and hourly 1.618 Butterfly pattern target, that we’ve talked about on Friday.
That being said, the minimum target of starting move down is 1.2450 area- 0.618 Fib support and monthly pivot support 1. But, there is still a possibility for smaller momentum trade in the upward direction, because of the previous thrust up. That’s why we have to carefully watch for price action around 1.26-1.2650 area. This possible trade up will not cancel the major momentum trade and will be look like retracement in the bigger trade.


Daily
As in previous research - I’ve placed two charts – one for supports and another one for resistances. First of all, look at recent price action – the market has tried to move above the monthly pivot but it couldn’t. Also the market has not even reached a weekly pivot point. This is a bearish sign. But, as I’ve said I concern about 1.26 area. This is a very strong support and it contains 1.2606 Fib support, 1.2607 – weekly Pivot resistance 1. Also this is a 1.618 Butterfly target (see hourly part of research).
Now, let’s look at resistances (daily#2 chart). 1.2762 – first Fib resistance and weekly pivot point at 1.2765, the monthly pivot at 1.2786 also is near and it will become a resistance now. The next area of resistance is 1.2863-1.2866 that includes Fib resistance and weekly pivot resistance 1. Now is very important moment – keep in mind 1.3077 – the last 0.618 Fib resistance. If our Friday’s 1.27 Butterfly will work properly and will lead not only to retracement but to real short-term reverse to the upside – this area is a target of this butterfly pattern.
Let’s move to the hourly chart to discuss how to trade these levels and establishing the trading plan for Monday.

Daily#1

Daily#2


1-Hour
I’ve placed two charts. The first one explains in detail the Butterfly pattern. As you see, the market has accomplished 1.27 Butterfly and started a retracement. Now we have to estimate a very important moment – Is this retracement a reversal or just a retracement and how to trade it? If this is a reversal – then the target, as I’ve said in daily part of research – 1.3077 area. If this is just a retracement - then we should watching for possibility to enter in continuation to 1.618 target of Butterfly.
To get an answer let’s look at hourly#2 chart. The key area is 1.2760-1.2770. It includes weekly pivot, monthly pivot and hourly Fib confluence resistance area. If on Monday we will see any AB-CD pattern that ends near this area – look for sell signals. But be careful of 2 possible moments. If the market will move above the weekly pivot – don’t be short, because it can mean that 1.27 butterfly is a real reversal pattern and we can see further move up. And the second one – if market will just explode up to this area – don’t be short. We need a gradual retracement move, not fast thrust.Hourly#1

[/U]Hourly#2


The technical portion of Sive's analysis owes a great deal to Joe DiNapoli's methods, and uses a number of Joe's proprietary indicators. Please note that Sive's analysis is his own view of the market and is not endorsed by Joe DiNapoli or any related companies.
 
Last edited:

DaveO

Private, 1st Class
Messages
60
Thanks Sive for your excellent analysis !

Referencing the daily chart I also have a downside target below the 61.8% ret at a potential 100% symmetry 1.2318. If market goes there the level could be a Wave B low with Wave C up to follow. Jumping the gun a little but something to watch imho.

David.
 

ochills

Master Sergeant
Messages
278
Thanks Sive for

Thanks Sive for your wonderful analysis,
it is wonderful. Thanks Man.Keep doing the Good Job.
Thanks Once again.
Pls I want to make an humble request, Pls for God sake kindly carry people like me along by sending a text message of your analysis bcos I have never for once be able to watch your Video analysis and I dont want to have HALF information.Pls.
Thanks Man
 

Joh

Sergeant Major
Messages
960
Sive Morton

Thks very much Sive for yr detailed explanations and yr regular updates, you are amazing:) Joh
 

Sive Morten

Special Consultant to the FPA
Messages
12,732
Thanks Sive for your excellent analysis !

Referencing the daily chart I also have a downside target below the 61.8% ret at a potential 100% symmetry 1.2318. If market goes there the level could be a Wave B low with Wave C up to follow. Jumping the gun a little but something to watch imho.

David.
Hi, David. Yes this is possible, as I've said 1.2450 is a minimum target.

Thanks Sive for your wonderful analysis,
it is wonderful. Thanks Man.Keep doing the Good Job.
Thanks Once again.
Pls I want to make an humble request, Pls for God sake kindly carry people like me along by sending a text message of your analysis bcos I have never for once be able to watch your Video analysis and I dont want to have HALF information.Pls.
Thanks Man
Hi, Ochills
Well, I prepare text version of video every day, except Monday, and you can find it in this thread from Tue to Fri.
Search for My posts with EUR/USD Update names...
 

akalou

Private
Messages
21
thanks Sive for your clear and precise analysis,you've really helped trader like me alot.thanks again. pls text of the contents of your videos along with your daily analysis would be gratefully appreciated.pls keep up the good work!. more grease to you head for more clear-cut analysis.
thanks.
 

membrano

Recruit
Messages
1
Thank you !!

Million thanks Sive, I'm following your analysis since a month ago and you have helped me to raise significantly my PIPs hit ratio :)
 

auna

Corporal
Messages
83
thnks Mr Morten.I fired all my other gurus and am taking your gospel as religion for trading as of now...hahahaha.You were dead on the money last week with near perfect accuracy.I however bailed out at 1.27 coming down from a 1.2890.I just feel that your caution around the 1.26 70 -90 resistance of last week has started early and has allowed market to move up again on friday . Surely monday it will go down by a bit, hope till 1.26 because i got an old sell position there. Also i want to long at 1.26 as you say.Us economy is really getting bad and i see 1.35 coming as well . Also sources tell me the chinese are planning to enter a long in the 1.26 region for their personal reasons it seems while the SNB is continuing to dumb their euros . The ECB are expecting some good fortune at the expense of the american economy of course but as you already know, the euro is not that enticing of a currency as well. We could be entering a new 124 to 134 corridor it seems with a pandimodium of near 500 pips a weekly occurance in any direction since none of the currencies on trade look solid to hold on. With the double dip economic crisis on the fault line, trading has never been more exciting and more dangerous that these times
 

Nodi Eze

Recruit
Messages
2
Euro pro Weekly 23_27 August,2010

Sive thanks so much for your efforts.I have tried so hard to follow your analysis,but in vain.Please try to break it down further for newbies like us.
 
Top