Euro Forex Pro Weekly, September 20-24, 2010

[Sive Morten]

Hi Sive,

What is the target by double RePo? Where to put limit order?

Regards

Paata

Hi Paata,
Usually initial target at 100% or 1.618 expansion from ABC move, where A and C points are tops/bottoms of DRPO and B - low/high between them

 

[adams1]

Where is 2day forecast sir

Good day sir,

Thanks for yesterday forecast.Sir, I am looking for 2day write up of 2day forecast but I am not seeing it.
Where can I get them sir.

Adamson Erha

 

[Sive Morten]

EUR/USD Daily Update, Wed 22, September

Good morning,
In fact, threre are few that could be said right now. EUR has broken all Fib resistances, including the last gasp for bears - 0.88 Fib resistance, and has reached daily 1.618 target, as I've suspected yesterday. Today I just want to warn you that 1.3340 - daily level of Overbought for EUR, so above this area market can be very unstable...
Personally, I do not want to buy EUR right now.

 

[Sentinel]

Arrrrrrggghhh... 1.3333 was taken and my logical SL was hit. Sive, I am still uncertain about closing my November long USD future contracts from here where EUR is daily overbought. What do you think?

1) Close immediately.
2) Wait a small moment of time for EUR to retrace and close.
3) Wait till end of November for USD to come back (Monthly trend is still bearish)

 

[Sive Morten]

Arrrrrrggghhh... 1.3333 was taken and my logical SL was hit. Sive, I am still uncertain about closing my November long USD future contracts from here where EUR is daily overbought. What do you think?

1) Close immediately.
2) Wait a small moment of time for EUR to retrace and close.
3) Wait till end of November for USD to come back (Monthly trend is still bearish)

Hi, Sentinel,
well, the next resistance 1.35 area. At least you can wait - will market return below previous highs. If it will happen, this can be a W&R of previous highs. If not, well, till 1.35 not too far...
So, I suppose the yours point 2 is mostly accepted.

 

[Mandrake]

Arrrrrrggghhh... 1.3333 was taken and my logical SL was hit. Sive, I am still uncertain about closing my November long USD future contracts from here where EUR is daily overbought. What do you think?

1) Close immediately.
2) Wait a small moment of time for EUR to retrace and close.
3) Wait till end of November for USD to come back (Monthly trend is still bearish)

Hi Sentinel,

I think it's highly probable it will retrace from here. I am waiting for an opportunity to short.

You can see a daily and 4hr overbought using RSI. 4hr overbought not so prominent but if you look at daily overbought in the past, everytime there was a overbought or oversold there is a big retracement of a few hundred pips towards the opposite direction.

I think this should happen here as well.

 

[Sive Morten]

EUR/USD Daily Update, Thu 23, September 2010

Good morning,

Sentinel's request has pushed me to investigate nearest possible level of bouncing with more scrutiny. Here is what I've found....
Look at this weekly chart - particulary at 1.35-1.3660 area. This is a really strong resistance that includes
- 50% Fib resistance from the whole move down (we've talked about this level milion of times on weekly researches)
- 61.8% expansion target from ABC-bottom pattern, that makes an Agreement with this Fib resistance
-1.27 Expansion target from previous retracement down
- Just above all these stuff - monthly pivot resistance 2 around 1.36
- Weekly Overbought at 1.3660 area.

Personally, I'll be watching for signs to enter short from this area. But I also do not want to buy right now, because market is overbought on daily time frame.

 

[rasto007]

Retracement levels

Sive,

If the market bounce from the current last high or form COP at 1.3489 or from 1.35 how deep of a retracement is reasonable to expect? 0.618? Since it is from extreme daily overbought? What are your thoughts on this?

Rasto

 

[Sentinel]

Hi, Sentinel,
well, the next resistance 1.35 area. At least you can wait - will market return below previous highs. If it will happen, this can be a W&R of previous highs. If not, well, till 1.35 not too far...
So, I suppose the yours point 2 is mostly accepted.

Thanks Sive, patience is gold..

 

[Sive Morten]

Sive,

If the market bounce from the current last high or form COP at 1.3489 or from 1.35 how deep of a retracement is reasonable to expect? 0.618? Since it is from extreme daily overbought? What are your thoughts on this?

Rasto

Hi Rasto,
I think, that this is imposible to say right now... We need some tools to estimate that - some patterns, speed of starting retracement, etc...

Something like RRT on GBP in the beginning of the week on 4-hour chart. Then we can estimate some target.