Sive Morten
Special Consultant to the FPA
- Messages
- 18,559
Monthly
Not much new on monthly time frame. Trend is bearish. During previous research I’ve marked 1.2550 area with horizon blue line – market often has found support or resistance around this level and now this happens again. The next monthly target is Agreement of 100% expansion of ABC pattern and 1.1394 Fib support (I do not have it on this chart). Now market consolidates in the range between 3/8 resistance area and 1.2550 long term support.
Monthly#1
Also we can see perfect 1.27 Butterfly Buy pattern with the target around 1.05. Another interesting moment is that 1.27 expansion of ABC-pattern almost precisely coincides with this level. But we should talk about it in more details if we will get 1.15 target first.
Monthly#2
Weekly
Weekly trend is bullish, no oversold or overbought condition right now on the market. Let’s proceed with momentum trades, that we’ve talked about on previous week.
1. Upward momentum trade.
This momentum trade has been completed. Market has reached 0.618 resistance level at 1.3048 from whole reverse back move and even exceeded it a bit.
Weekly#1
2. Downward momentum trade
Now, as you remember, we also have talked about larger momentum trade, that is to the downside. And context for this trade is a previous huge thrust down. The minimum target of this trade – 5/8 Fib support from the whole up move retracement from this swing down. Look at the picture.
This trade is working still, but also has it’s own defects. First of all, I do not like too deep move after crossing of 3x3 DMA (green line) to the upside. But if we take into consideration the reason for the previous sell-off (EU and Greece problems), then, may be everything will be ok with this trade. Besides, the monthly trend supports the direction of this weekly signal. The level of cancellation of this trade – is a situation when market will exceed previous high at 1.3333. That’s important, because, although this is a Directional trade (Direction overrules trend), the weekly trend is still bullish, and from weekly chart we can’t say definitely will market surely go to the downside…
Now some new details appear in this trade. If we assume that C-point already in place, then target of AB-CD pattern coincides with target of this momentum trade and makes and Agreement with 5/8 Fib support level at 1.2409-1.2430.
Weekly#2
Also, I would like to continue to track our possible butterfly that I’ve shown you on previous week.
Weekly#3
As I’ve said during the previous week, we can see some shallow changes that do not influence on the pattern hard. One of this possible changes could be moving of C-point higher than it was on a previous week and this has happened. Now we have two Agreements – 100% Expansion from ABC pattern agrees with 5/8 Fib support and this is really strong area, 127.2% expansion agrees with deeper Fib 0.786 support. Two strong support levels in a row can hold the market during down move and makes realization of butterfly pattern more probable.
The major value of this possible butterfly ”Buy” pattern that it confirms monthly target – the 1.272 target of this butterfly – precisely at monthly Agreement area around 1.14-1.15.
At the same time, this forecast has some critical points. First, we need, that AB-CD move will not break previous lows. So, the lows around 1.19 should hold. And, second, market should not move higher, than A point around 1.3333. It will be much better if upward retracement will be stopped by 0.786 resistance (almost like I draw it).
Daily
Here, I would like to show you couple of charts. And I concern with them a bit. Here is why… Look at the first chart – it shows that market has reached 1.618 butterfly “Sell” pattern and monthly pivot resistance 1. Look’s like reversal is logical, everything is ok. Now look at the second daily chart
Daily#1
Market has not quite reached 1.618 expansion target and Agreement at 1.3167 (just for some pips). Why does this fact so worry me? Well, usually, when market has not reached a bit solid target, it very often reaches it a bit later. Odds suggest that it happens very often. I just want to warn you about this moment and you should be careful in opening short positions. Because current move down may be just a reaction on overbought condition and resistance as of monthly pivot resistance 1. Besides, look at the speed of CD-leg. It much faster then AB move. So, when market will move out from overbought condition, some continuation of upward move, as I said, is possible. Other words I can’t exclude last gasp to the upside and reaching 1.618 expansion target, although for now it’s impossible to say – will it happen or not, because market just started move down.
Daily#2
4-Hour
4-hour trend turns bearish, market already has reached first Confluence support at 1.3030-1.3035 area. Previous move up was solid, so I expect that market should show deep retracement to the upside – 1.31-1.3120 area. Next important area of support – Confluence support 1.2958-1.2962 and 1.2966 weekly pivot point. This can also be an Agreement of possible AB-CD down move. So, personally, I will be looking for price action around this area. If market will move below pivot and will stay here, it will increase chances for continuation to the downside and decrease ones of a possible move higher, at least during the next week. I will not enter short, if market will hold above pivot.
That’s being said, during the next week the main question will market reach daily 1.618 expansion target or not. If market can anchor below pivot point then, I suppose, probability of reaching this target decreases, at least during the next week. Personally I will not enter short, if market will hold above pivot.
The technical portion of Sive's analysis owes a great deal to Joe DiNapoli's methods, and uses a number of Joe's proprietary indicators. Please note that Sive's analysis is his own view of the market and is not endorsed by Joe DiNapoli or any related companies.
Not much new on monthly time frame. Trend is bearish. During previous research I’ve marked 1.2550 area with horizon blue line – market often has found support or resistance around this level and now this happens again. The next monthly target is Agreement of 100% expansion of ABC pattern and 1.1394 Fib support (I do not have it on this chart). Now market consolidates in the range between 3/8 resistance area and 1.2550 long term support.
Monthly#1
Also we can see perfect 1.27 Butterfly Buy pattern with the target around 1.05. Another interesting moment is that 1.27 expansion of ABC-pattern almost precisely coincides with this level. But we should talk about it in more details if we will get 1.15 target first.
Monthly#2
Weekly
Weekly trend is bullish, no oversold or overbought condition right now on the market. Let’s proceed with momentum trades, that we’ve talked about on previous week.
1. Upward momentum trade.
This momentum trade has been completed. Market has reached 0.618 resistance level at 1.3048 from whole reverse back move and even exceeded it a bit.
Weekly#1
2. Downward momentum trade
Now, as you remember, we also have talked about larger momentum trade, that is to the downside. And context for this trade is a previous huge thrust down. The minimum target of this trade – 5/8 Fib support from the whole up move retracement from this swing down. Look at the picture.
This trade is working still, but also has it’s own defects. First of all, I do not like too deep move after crossing of 3x3 DMA (green line) to the upside. But if we take into consideration the reason for the previous sell-off (EU and Greece problems), then, may be everything will be ok with this trade. Besides, the monthly trend supports the direction of this weekly signal. The level of cancellation of this trade – is a situation when market will exceed previous high at 1.3333. That’s important, because, although this is a Directional trade (Direction overrules trend), the weekly trend is still bullish, and from weekly chart we can’t say definitely will market surely go to the downside…
Now some new details appear in this trade. If we assume that C-point already in place, then target of AB-CD pattern coincides with target of this momentum trade and makes and Agreement with 5/8 Fib support level at 1.2409-1.2430.
Weekly#2
Also, I would like to continue to track our possible butterfly that I’ve shown you on previous week.
Weekly#3
As I’ve said during the previous week, we can see some shallow changes that do not influence on the pattern hard. One of this possible changes could be moving of C-point higher than it was on a previous week and this has happened. Now we have two Agreements – 100% Expansion from ABC pattern agrees with 5/8 Fib support and this is really strong area, 127.2% expansion agrees with deeper Fib 0.786 support. Two strong support levels in a row can hold the market during down move and makes realization of butterfly pattern more probable.
The major value of this possible butterfly ”Buy” pattern that it confirms monthly target – the 1.272 target of this butterfly – precisely at monthly Agreement area around 1.14-1.15.
At the same time, this forecast has some critical points. First, we need, that AB-CD move will not break previous lows. So, the lows around 1.19 should hold. And, second, market should not move higher, than A point around 1.3333. It will be much better if upward retracement will be stopped by 0.786 resistance (almost like I draw it).
Daily
Here, I would like to show you couple of charts. And I concern with them a bit. Here is why… Look at the first chart – it shows that market has reached 1.618 butterfly “Sell” pattern and monthly pivot resistance 1. Look’s like reversal is logical, everything is ok. Now look at the second daily chart
Daily#1
Market has not quite reached 1.618 expansion target and Agreement at 1.3167 (just for some pips). Why does this fact so worry me? Well, usually, when market has not reached a bit solid target, it very often reaches it a bit later. Odds suggest that it happens very often. I just want to warn you about this moment and you should be careful in opening short positions. Because current move down may be just a reaction on overbought condition and resistance as of monthly pivot resistance 1. Besides, look at the speed of CD-leg. It much faster then AB move. So, when market will move out from overbought condition, some continuation of upward move, as I said, is possible. Other words I can’t exclude last gasp to the upside and reaching 1.618 expansion target, although for now it’s impossible to say – will it happen or not, because market just started move down.
Daily#2
4-Hour
4-hour trend turns bearish, market already has reached first Confluence support at 1.3030-1.3035 area. Previous move up was solid, so I expect that market should show deep retracement to the upside – 1.31-1.3120 area. Next important area of support – Confluence support 1.2958-1.2962 and 1.2966 weekly pivot point. This can also be an Agreement of possible AB-CD down move. So, personally, I will be looking for price action around this area. If market will move below pivot and will stay here, it will increase chances for continuation to the downside and decrease ones of a possible move higher, at least during the next week. I will not enter short, if market will hold above pivot.
That’s being said, during the next week the main question will market reach daily 1.618 expansion target or not. If market can anchor below pivot point then, I suppose, probability of reaching this target decreases, at least during the next week. Personally I will not enter short, if market will hold above pivot.
The technical portion of Sive's analysis owes a great deal to Joe DiNapoli's methods, and uses a number of Joe's proprietary indicators. Please note that Sive's analysis is his own view of the market and is not endorsed by Joe DiNapoli or any related companies.