Euro FX Pro Weekly 5-9 July, 2010

[Sive Morten]

So is that good idea to get short around 1.2580 and hunt for 50pips?

Well, Ghazali,
only if you have some reasons for that - some good sell signals or something.
But you will enter against the trend, and down move I expect could be choppy

Now I see only MACDP failure on 4-hour chart, that theoretically can lead to at least previous lows at 1.2470. But I do not intend to take this signal.

Anyway I do not see any problem in this scalp trade. It's normal. Just get a signal, that you prefer, may be reduce lot and take your risk reasonable.

Good luck

 

[Ghazali]

Thanks

Thanks for your advise Sive.

 

[Sive Morten]

EUR/USD Update, Thu 08, July

Good day,

market continues to creep higher and breaks 1.2630 confluence resistance. Next target is OP=1.2750 and weekly Pivot resistance 1.2730. Also there is a daily Confluence reisistance and overbought.
At the same time, market is close to overbought right now. THis level is 1.2714 for today. 4-hour chart shows bearish devergence. Although this signal is not very reliable for me, nevertheless I do not want to struggle it and prefer to catch a pullback to enter long.
Also this is a possible three-drive sell pattern. Be carefull.
That's being said - I prefer wait for pullback for enter Long. 1.2470-1.2490 first confluence support, 1.2360-1.2380 - second confluence support. Look for any ABC-top patterns that end at one of these areas.

 

[believe77]

Perhaps this pullback we wait going to start early next week. But whats the fundamentalnews trigger for this pullback?

Well, I just wait your next weekly analysis then.

Thanks Sive.

 

[Sive Morten]

Perhaps this pullback we wait going to start early next week. But whats the fundamentalnews trigger for this pullback?

Well, I just wait your next weekly analysis then.

Thanks Sive.

Guys, many of us make trades during 1-2 hours till 2-3 days with 1:100 leverage and 50 pips s/l. What kind of fundamentals are we talking about?

Fundamentals are important when you trade long term, without s/l or with very far stop and with small leverage or even without it.

For 100-200 pips move fundamental factor does not must. It can appare and push market, news for example, or massive orders or smth. But this is a bit different fundamental stuff. I think about fundamentals in a way of strong economic correlations that include rate, trends in the economy, cycles, etc. But in short term - they are not so important. This is the same as to use monthly trend direction for 5 min trading.

 

[Ghazali]

You're Right!

Hi Sive,

Absolutely what you wrote is right. I had read about it. yesterday I read an article in Bloomberg saying a very good economic experts saying that EURO is under heavy risk and it will drop to 1.14-1.13 and finally will drop to 1.00 before it starts recovering. BUT you predicted this couple of months ago.. Im really glad to see such an expert like you sharing your knowledge with us. Only the Almighty is eligible to bless you. Thanks A lot sive... Keep Rock!!!

bloomberg link: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-...te-analysts-as-td-securities-sees-parity.html

 

[Sive Morten]

EUR/USD Update, Fri 09, July

Hi, everybody

Market did not show any action yesterday and I think that it in decision now. I' tell you why I think so.
First of all, let's look at daily chart - market creeps in a line with overbought level and does not budge at all. It has passed through 1.2630 confluence resistance area. This is a sign of a strength of the market. Although daily overbought levels are important, but they can be overruled by monthly oversold level that holds for 2-3 months. So, when market creeps with overbought, very often it can show strong upmove then, may be right to the 1.30 area. This is first point of view.
Let's see on second. Look at two 4-hour charts.
on the first chart we see some bearish patterns - divergence and wedge. On second - three drive sell pattern. Second drive is right 1.27 extension of the first one, and third - confluence of 1.618 of first drive and 1.27 of second.
besides, just above the market weekly pivot resistance 1. Besides, during last bars market can't turn trend to bullish, although price action is up. This is a bearish dynamic pressure.

So, what to do right now? My choice - is to wait a bit. I don't like so much bearish patterns to enter long. I prefer to wait for some pullback. How deep it can be? Minimum target of a 3-drive pattern is a low of second drive - 1.2550 area. This is also a confluence support. Next confluence support is around 1.25, probably this is a better choice, we'll see.
But probably, downmove will happen on the next week. If it will not happen - this is also positive - we will enter on a retracement after thrust up. Because I expect that this will be strong move in one or another direction.

 

[zumzum]

Hi Sive,
first of all I wolud like to thank you for your insight. I appreciate your effort!
Having said that can you please clarify for me how important are for you support and resistance?
For instance, a very strong daily resistance has been hit at 1.27/27,3 today and the market started heading south. For me that was a good position to enter short with a target again the daily support (at 1.23 today).
Why you never mention those S&R?

Thank you,

zz

 

[Sive Morten]

Hi Sive,
first of all I wolud like to thank you for your insight. I appreciate your effort!
Having said that can you please clarify for me how important are for you support and resistance?
For instance, a very strong daily resistance has been hit at 1.27/27,3 today and the market started heading south. For me that was a good position to enter short with a target again the daily support (at 1.23 today).
Why you never mention those S&R?

Thank you,

zz

Hi, Zumzum
Why have you decided, that I've never mentioned it. I mention them in every research. Just read my post above. The third chart contains weekly pivot resistance 1 that is accurate at 1.2730. I do not mention 1.23 because it's too far for now.

Usually I use Pivot points as support/resistance and Fib 0.382 - 0.618 as suport resistance.
If 0.382 coincides with 0.618 this is a Confluence support/res. that is stronger than just single Fib level.
If Fib level coinsides with Fib Expansion - this calls Agreement, and it's more important than single level.
I also use Overbought oversold levels as support/res. But this is a dynamic thing. It changes day by day.

I rarely use trend lines. Only in purpose to look at the market as croud does.

 

[Sentinel]

Oscillator Predictor and MACDP

I still don't have the Oscillator Predictor and MACDP on MT4 which are crucial on Sive's analysis. As far as I observe, especially Oscillator Predictor is very important in defining the final boundries of a market movement. It is possible to calculate Oscillator Predictor with method explained in this forum last year but this is not handy as far as the numbers update each period.

Does anybody have these on MT4? You, Sive? If I am not wrong months ago you had told me to ask it once again in the future..