European Forex Professional Weekly 2009-12-17

Yes, you're right about weekly Confluence. There are weekly OS and Agreement with OP=1025 by the way. Very strong support really. If it will reach it in December - then we can get a monthly RRT also.
This scenario is very probable. Market will be very thin during the holidays. For now I have a sell sleeping order at 1 150.
For now it is difficuilt to say something definite. But the pullback will be sooner rather than later. Possibly it will start from 1025 -1040 Confluence support. In this case it will be really fantastic picture. The minimum pullback, I think, will be 0.382 - this is in a row with potential monthly RRT pattern.
I think that the best behaviour for now - just wait and not to be hasty, especcially due to thin market.

Sive.
 
Yes, you're right about weekly Confluence. There are weekly OS and Agreement with OP=1025 by the way. Very strong support really. If it will reach it in December - then we can get a monthly RRT also.
This scenario is very probable. Market will be very thin during the holidays. For now I have a sell sleeping order at 1 150.
For now it is difficuilt to say something definite. But the pullback will be sooner rather than later. Possibly it will start from 1025 -1040 Confluence support. In this case it will be really fantastic picture. The minimum pullback, I think, will be 0.382 - this is in a row with potential monthly RRT pattern.
I think that the best behaviour for now - just wait and not to be hasty, especcially due to thin market.

Sive.

Ok Sive.. Thanks for the advice.. But I read your mail a bit late. I just opened a trade from 1084 short (as soon as the home sales is announced and is better than expected) with stoploss at 1020. Let's see what will happen.
 
For now it is difficuilt to say something definite. But the pullback will be sooner rather than later. Possibly it will start from 1025 -1040 Confluence support. In this case it will be really fantastic picture. The minimum pullback, I think, will be 0.382 - this is in a row with potential monthly RRT pattern.
I think that the best behaviour for now - just wait and not to be hasty, especcially due to thin market.

Sive.

Excuse me, but I could not exactly get it. So you mean :

1) First a decline to 1025-40 (so a monthly RRT will form and 1025-1040 will be the Point of Recognition)
2) Then a 0,382 rise. That is where a sell opportunity will occur.
3) Then a decline again with Dinapoli Logical Profit objectives bound to RRT pattern.

Right?
 
Well, for now I have no strong beleive that it will be sharp to 1025-1040. It's just possible and looks logical.
Also there should be pull back anyway. But the question is how strong it will be and from what level it will start.
We have no signs yet on 4 hour or daily chart that retracement has started. That's why we can only guess when it should be happen...
 
Directonal Indicator on EURUSD

Hi Sive,

Merry christmas. I am not quite sure whether you would check your mails but it looks like a Bread and Butter signal has occured at daily EURUSD. But I am puzzled with which fib retracement level to look for an entry. Here is what DiNapoli says:

"After the initial penetratiom of the 3X3 on close, look for an intraday Fibonacci (support) retracement level, at a significant Fibnode, to enter the market in the Direction oh the original thrust."

I draw the hourly chart but unsure about where DiNapoli suggest for an entry & stop. Is that mean enter at Confluence A with stoploss behind B?

eurusd1h.gif
 
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Well, to my mind there could be 3 possible area -
Nearest agreement - 1.44-1.4410;
Area between Agreement at 1.4450-1.4460 and K-area at 1.4480
And Confuence at major F3 1.4560-1.4570 area.

I think that more probably B&B will start from 1.4450-1.4480. The one thing that worries me is a thin market.
 

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Well, to my mind there could be 3 possible area -
Nearest agreement - 1.44-1.4410;
Area between Agreement at 1.4450-1.4460 and K-area at 1.4480
And Confuence at major F3 1.4560-1.4570 area.

I think that more probably B&B will start from 1.4450-1.4480. The one thing that worries me is a thin market.

I can't beleive the detail level your chart has. It took me half an hour to redraw it on my Metatrader :) .. Again, thanks once again for taking time and helping. While drawing, I realized, you sometimes choose thrust highs as reaction points rather than the original ones. Right?

So, as far as I understand from your analysis, drawing fibs&confluences is not enough. We should also check the LOP levels for agreements and make decision with their coincidences. Also wait for OB/OS level to predict the top that market will start turn back (stretch).
 
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Well this is CQG... DiNapoli thinks that they are the best. Besides, these tools are DiNapoli trading pack. That's why it's so comfortable. but it no cheap. I use it at work.

According to book - Thrust bars and Gaps - are hidden reaction points.

Yes, combination of LPO's and Fib levels (not only with confluence, but with single levels also) is very important.

Concerning OB/OS... It's not so decisive on lower than daily frames. I usuially use it as a filter - is it safe to enter or not. Or if I already have a position - is it time to exit at current LPO or not.

And don't forget a MACD.
 
Anytime, Sentinel,
Merry Xmas to you, all forumers and FPA
and Happy, Prosperous New Year (although there will be a research at 28 Dec) ;)
 
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