Music Man
Corporal
- Messages
- 91
Since the peak last December of 1.51431, we have been retracing down. This last week saw the Euro close a bit above the 38.2% Fib line at 1.40714. The question on the table is do we bounce, or do we break through (as the lowest price last week did for a while) and continue down?
If we do break the 38.2% line, then the 50% line sits at 1.37345.
If it were not for Mr. Obama, I would think that the 50% retracement is the next stop. Now that O has created new risk for the buck, I am not so sure. At this rate, if Greece and the other PIIGS do not foul the well, a long EURUSD position may be just the thing.
However, with opposing bad news and the traditional risk picture muddied, a trading range will probably develop until Non-Farm Payrolls on February 5th. At that point, anything can happen, but if the perception of US holdings as politically risky grows, then bad employment numbers may facilitate a bounce back up to 1.44832, where the 23.6% fib line lies, and perhaps higher.
I'm thinking range trade until Feb 5th, then straddle, then trade the move to which ever Fib line the market heads for.
Sound crazy?
MM
If we do break the 38.2% line, then the 50% line sits at 1.37345.
If it were not for Mr. Obama, I would think that the 50% retracement is the next stop. Now that O has created new risk for the buck, I am not so sure. At this rate, if Greece and the other PIIGS do not foul the well, a long EURUSD position may be just the thing.
However, with opposing bad news and the traditional risk picture muddied, a trading range will probably develop until Non-Farm Payrolls on February 5th. At that point, anything can happen, but if the perception of US holdings as politically risky grows, then bad employment numbers may facilitate a bounce back up to 1.44832, where the 23.6% fib line lies, and perhaps higher.
I'm thinking range trade until Feb 5th, then straddle, then trade the move to which ever Fib line the market heads for.
Sound crazy?
MM